The LA Galaxy are still enjoying their spot at the top of the Western Conference, but they can’t risk dropping any more points to keep their distance from the following pack.
Last Wednesday’s 4-2 loss away at the Portland Timbers was a bitter reminder that the LA Galaxy are still very much capable of dropping points and losing their place at the top of the West.
Greg Vanney’s team played themselves into needing another comeback, but couldn’t deliver without the energy of Dignity Health Sports Park behind them.
Tonight’s game at home against the Vancouver Whitecaps is a must-win considering the travel that lies ahead and the rivals that are closing in from behind.
The LA Galaxy have played the most games out of the teams with a claim to the Western Conference Title. That means it’s up to them to set the pace for the race to first place.
They currently sit on 55 points with four matches, including tonight’s game against Vancouver, left in their regular season schedule. Real Salt Lake are in second place with 50 points and five more matches left to play. Behind them is LAFC, with 49 points but six games left. In fourth are the Colorado Rapids with 47 points and five games left to play.
While the Galaxy do have some distance on their rivals, it’s not enough for them to be able to afford losing many more matches. They must continue picking up points and forcing their rivals to win to keep up.
Trying to predict exactly how many wins it would take to secure the Western Conference Regular Season leadership is difficult with all the variations that can take place.
So instead let’s take a look at where the LA Galaxy are expected to finish based on form and see what it would take for each of their rivals to take that top spot from them (if the Galaxy can keep the pace).
After the loss to Portland, the LA Galaxy currently have an average points per game of 1.83 according to fbref.com. If they manage to not drop their level, they should earn an additional 7 points after completing their regular season schedule, leaving them with 62 points earned at the end of the 2024 season.
Having already earned 50 points, Real Salt Lake are currently 12 away from the Galaxy’s expected total. That means that they must earn at least 13 points in their remaining five matches to overtake the Galaxy. In other words, RSL must win at least four games and draw once, or otherwise earn 2.6 points per game, if they hope to host more playoff matches. Salt Lake currently has an average points per game of 1.72 throughout the season.
LAFC are currently on 49 but have the most chance to make up points with the most games still on their schedule. If the Galaxy do manage to keep the pace and finish with 62 points, LAFC will have six games to make up the 14 points needed to steal first place from their LA rivals. To earn 14 points, LAFC will need at least four wins and two draws or 2.3 points per game. They currently have 1.75 ppg throughout the season.
IF the LA Galaxy can keep on picking up points at the same rate they have all season, the numbers indicate that it would take something very special from one of their rivals to lose first place.
However, assuming that the Galaxy are guaranteed to pick up an average of 1.82 points in their next four games is naive. Teams have exposed the LA Galaxy as being a very beatable team on multiple occasions on the road this year.
Even if the Galaxy do win both of their final two home matches, which isn’t guaranteed by any means, they are still at risk of dropping six points in their remaining two away matches. Real Salt Lake and LAFC are still just five and six points behind the Galaxy and have the chance to catch up if the current first place team fails to keep the intensity high and earn points both at home and on the road.
The LA Galaxy are still in first place and in a strong position to finish first, but they can just as easily drop to second or third with just a few more negative results.
Tonight’s match against Vancouver in front of the home supporters is massive for the Galaxy to keep their distance and the pressure off as much as possible before traveling to Colorado for another hugely important road game.
It’s the business end of the season and time for the LA Galaxy to show that they truly mean business. The rest of the Galaxy’s future starts tonight at 7:39 pm at Dignity Health Sports Park.
PHOTO: LA GALAXY
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