One reason the Ottawa Senators have a well-constructed lineup is the type of players that they have throughout their lineup. If you study the Ottawa Senators lineup, if one player went down with an injury, they would fair all right. General manager Steve Staios has done well to build a winning linemate. So let’s lay out the potential scenarios on how the 2025-26 could play out and see how the Ottawa Senators salary cap spending have them set to succeed.
The Ottawa Senators Salary Cap Spending
Let’s say for argument sake, Brady Tkachuk, as he’s a top-line winger went down for a few games. However, the beauty of the construction of the Sens lineup is that you could find someone to fill that hole. Now, would Fabian Zetterlund or Nick Cousins be as effective in that role? Probably not. However, it is unlikely that this one lineup change would result in many fewer expected losses, especially over the short term.
Now, in one sense Brady Tkachuk is a bad example, as he’s one of the Sens best three or four players. In contrast, he is a great recent example to provide empirical evidence. This is after missing so many games in the stretch drive of 2024-25. Moreover, the team continued to play well with the captain out of the lineup. They went 5-2-1 in fact. But you get the idea, so with that in mind, let’s take a little deep dive into what general manager Steve Staios is thinking about this lineup currently.
According to PuckPedia, the Sens have a little over four-and-a-quarter million dollars left in cap space. Furthermore, they have 22 of 23 NHL contract positions locked in for 2025-26. Hence, they have some options. They don’t really need anything to spend it on, per se. So, let’s discuss the possibilities of what they could end up spending it on.
The Best Case Scenario and How to Take Advantage
The first scenario that plays out it’s kind of best case scenario, just say they go through the season and come up to the trade deadline. They’re, you know, in fifth, sixth position in the Eastern Conference standings, comfortably in the playoffs, buyers at the trade deadline, deadly, am I right?
In addition, for this to truly be best case scenario, they would also need to not have injury problems to this point. Realistically, injuries are always a point of discussion. You have to allot for around 15% of man games lost due to injury for every team, every year. Some teams have more, some teams have less. The point is, you have to allow for that amount of man-games lost. That is why many teams, especially playoff contenders, run seven or eight NHL defencemen. That’s the kind of depth you need to get through a potential playoff run.
Let Staios Cook
In any case, given this best case scenario, that would mean general manager Staios, still has about $4 million to upgrade the lineup significantly. Also, all the current roster players have played up to expectations. So, for a great option, he could go out and get a sniper. Say, from one of the non-playoff teams (being that it is at the deadline).
Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Tuch, you know, just more or less drawing straws at non-playoff teams. Rickard Rakell is another name that comes to mind. Granted now, that it is July 2025 and not March 2026. But the thing to keep in mind at the trade deadline, is that it is only the pro-rated salary that counts against the cap. Thus the 4 million, you know, is a lot of money. When it comes to the trade deadline.
Plus, you are adding a huge asset that you could potentially play with in your roster. Then, ahead of next year’s free agency, there is always an advantage of being a buyer. It’s your double reward for being a strong team, and having some money in your back pocket. These ideas of asset acquisition and growth will be even more so important in the years to come. The collective bargaining agreement’s new rules will alter the usage of long-term injury reserve money.
One Less Than Ideal Scenario, the Goaltenders
Well, that was the best case, scenario and the easiest one to start with. However, a couple other scenarios could definitely play out for Ottawa. Scenarios that would necessitate the usage of the $4 million in a different fashion. One possibility is their goaltending, as they have a world-class starter Linus Ullmark. On the other hand, their two current backup goalies, don’t have a lot of NHL experience in Leevi Merilainen and Mads Sogaard
It may not be such a fun or sexy way to spend $4 million, but it would be a necessary one. With that, you’d think you can get a more than competent NHL backup goalie. Somewhat similar to Anton Forsberg, who had been earning $2.75M the past three seasons in Ottawa. In any sense, that could be one of the potential uses, a solid backup goalie. Some examples that come to mind Dan Vladar, Calvin Pickard, Vitek Vanecek, and maybe not so much someone like Matt Murray. But, they are examples of options.
One More 2025-26 Ottawa Senators Salary Cap Spending Scenario
On to the one final potential use of the $4 million. It was kind of what we started with mentioning and that is, the injury possibility. We will focus on the defence. But realistically, there could be injury problems and anywhere. The interesting thing about injuries, is it’s kind of a timing scenario. When will the injuries pop-up?
One good thing, is that since Staios has taken over, he has developed a makeup of accountability throughout the organization. Therefore, any one injury or to can be dealt with internally, thus preventing a huge shake-up to the overall roster dynamic. Based on our lead up, we believe that the forward group is more-or-less set. You know, guys can always play up in the lineup, like Shane Pinto. He doesn’t need to be a third-line centre. You know, David Perron can play on all four lines in a pinch, those types of things.
Then, we shift to the defence. The Sens have struggled with having those top-end type defenders. Yes, Thomas Chabot has shown glimpses of that throughout his career. However, he’s lacked a confident right-side defender for much of his career. Then, they find a good one in Nick Jensen. Of course, even going back to about the midway point of the 2024-25, he gets injured. This eventually requires off-season surgery. There is that uncertainty already going into the season.
You know, you can probably buy a top-four defence in the $4M range. Probably lots of options out there, but you do need to be smart. The key is to find someone who keeps you competitive in 2025-26, and most likely, beyond this upcoming season. Moreover, you’d want to target a 30-year-old, opposed to someone who’s 35, and can only give you a year or two. You’re going to want someone who has three-to-four years left in their prime.
It is like the Panthers adding Seth Jones. Not to say someone of his caliber would necessarily be available. But that is the idea, more in the Rasmus Andersson type rerea. If it’s later in the year and his salary stretches a little further than the $4M, etc.
Also, it would need to be a tangible upgrade, which could be tricky with that amount a money. When we talk about adding Jordan Spence, he covers the team in this train of thought. He might not be a ‘high-end’ top-four guy, but he can certainly fill-in in a pinch. Also, his career trajectory is trending upwards.
So big picture for the Ottawa Senators salary cap, they are running it back with largely the same roster. There are some minor tweaks, but this was a playoff roster. Based on having similar players, will very probably be a playoff team again. The advantage about the Sens roster is they have more young players. Players that are expecting a higher-career trajectory year-over-year. That is as compared to players that may be seeing a negative regression and taking a step back. Plus those types of players that may be taking a step back, provide plenty of veteran leadership. Claude Giroux as a prime example. So, even the players that might not be as good as last year, still have a lot to offer. In any sense, the club has been very responsible. They seem prepared for whatever curveball can come there way. Good job.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
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