With yet another disappointing Game 7 loss for the Maple Leafs, all eyes turn to their free agents. The most notable RFA the Leafs have this season is Matthew Knies. The Matthew Knies contract will dictate a lot of their off-season, especially after the success he saw in 2024-25.
The Next Contract for Matthew Knies
Matthew Knies became a quick fan favourite in Toronto. He has a big body and plays aggressively with the puck. This has led to him having a great year with Toronto in 2024-25. He ranked 41st in the NHL in ixG this season (according to Evolving-Hockey) with 28.7, ahead of players like Anthony Cirelli, Andrei Svechnikov, Nikita Kucherov, and Brad Marchand. This was good enough to be ranked 4th on the Toronto Maple Leafs, behind only Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and William Nylander. Notably, he generated more ixG than Mitch Marner. He had a great year, at just 22 years old.
This is all to ask, what will the next Matthew Knies contract look like?
Matthew Knies Comparables
Matt Boldy
A comparison that has been floated around is Matt Boldy, who signed his most recent deal at the end of the 2022-23 season. Boldy signed for 7 years with an AAV of $7,000,000, or 8.38% of the salary cap. He was 22 at the time of signing, the same age Knies is now. That season, Boldy had 32.13 ixG, ranking 36th in the NHL. This is ahead of players like Nikita Kucherov, Mika Zibanejad, and Patrice Bergeron. The key difference is, that season, Boldy ranked in the 96th percentile defensively, according to Evolving-Hockey, whereas Matthew Knies ranked in the 39th percentile. This doesn’t tell the full story, however. Knies actually played quite well defensively at even strength. Most of his detriment was on the penalty kill. Even with this consideration, though, Boldy was a superior defensive player in his contract year.
So while it can be argued their offensive profiles are very similar, Boldy was a better player defensively at this age than Matthew Knies is right now.
Clayton Keller
Another comparable that can be drawn on is Clayton Keller. Keller signed his current deal in 2019, and had it kick in for the 2020-21 season. He signed an 8 year contract, worth 7,150,000 per season, or 8.77% of the cap. Keller had 65 and 47 point seasons under his belt at the time of signing this deal. However, he also had the pedigree of being a 7th overall pick.
The Keller contract, at the time, was more of a bet on what he would become, rather than what he was in his first two seasons. This is true for most top RFAs coming out of their ELC, but is especially true for Keller. While Knies is arguably better than Keller was at the time of his signing, the context of their teams is important when evaluating. Keller, in his rookie year, was already the top point scorer and goal scorer on the Coyotes. Knies, on the other hand, while he had a great season, he only ranked 5th on his team this season, and 8th in his rookie year. In 2019, Keller was already “the guy” in Arizona. Knies is not in Toronto, at least at this point in his career. This is where the comparison may differ between the Clayton Keller contract and the Matthew Knies contract.
Marco Rossi
Finally, another comparable for the upcoming Matthew Knies contract is Marco Rossi. Unlike the previous two, Rossi has no current deal to compare to. However, should Rossi sign before Knies, it could be utilized as one of the best comparable contracts. Both players put up very similar counting stats, with Knies posting 29-29–58 and Rossi posting 24-36–60. Knies had a 50.16 CF%, whereas Rossi had 49.97% this season. They generated very similarly in terms of xGF% too. Rossi was slightly better defensively, with Knies generating slightly more offensively. These two players had incredibly similar seasons at very similar ages, and both need a new contract. If Rossi signs first, the Knies contract should look almost identical based on their recent performance, and the same goes for Rossi if Knies signs before he does.
What Should Knies’ Contract Look Like?
So, with all these comparables, what should Knies get signed to? If Brad Treliving has learned from past mistakes, he should avoid signing Knies to a bridge contract. He has already been burned by a bridge contract with Matthew Tkachuk before. While I am not comparing the talents of Matthew Knies to Matthew Tkachuk, bridges for your top players should be reserved only for when you absolutely cannot afford anything else. And, with a potential departure of Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies is absolutely among the Leafs’ top players now.
Knowing this, the Leafs should try to lock Knies up to something for 5-7 years in the $6,500,000 range. However, it feels as though a shorter term may be preferable for Knies for him to continue to emerge and fully maximize his own worth on a future contract. Only time will tell.
Main Photo: Sam Navarro- Imagn Images
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