Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features the Anaheim Ducks taking on the Great 8 and the Washington Capitals. Do not forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Washington Capitals
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting this season (2024-25 Season Series: Capitals 2 – 0 Ducks)
Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET); 7:00 p.m. Pacific Time (PT)
US TV: Victory+, MNMT, KCOP 13; ESPN+
Canada TV: SN, TVAS
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks (16–10–1) continue their homestand after a flat performance against Utah in a 7–0 loss that snapped their recent surge. Anaheim has now alternated wins and losses for eight straight and continues to search for consistency in its defensive structure. Meanwhile, the Washington Capitals (17–9–2) enter as one of the NHL’s hottest teams after winning six straight, including a dominant 7–1 showing in San Jose. Their top line remains a handful, and their depth scoring has finally stabilised. Anaheim aims to reset after a step back. Washington aims to extend its strongest run of the season.
Washington Capitals Storyline
Washington enters tonight with a firm identity. Their six-game winning streak has come from strong defensive layers, consistent goaltending and timely scoring. Ryan Leonard is coming off a four-point night and continues to push the pace on the third line. Alex Ovechkin owns a six-game point streak and remains dangerous around the crease, where Washington has excelled lately. Their expected goal share has jumped above 52 percent during this run, and their penalty kill sits inside the league’s top half. However, they still concede rush chances and can struggle with speed through the neutral zone. Anaheim’s transition game matches up well there, but Washington’s physicality and forecheck are strong counters. Their recent form gives them a modest advantage.
Power play goal for Washington!Scored by Alex Ovechkin with 17:19 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Ryan Leonard and Jakob Chychrun.San Jose: 0Washington: 5#WSHvsSJS #TheFutureIsTeal #ALLCAPS
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-04T04:26:01.745970Z
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s loss to Utah exposed the same concerns that have lingered through the first quarter of the season. Their expected goal share sits below 48 percent, and they continue to allow long stretches of defensive zone time. Their high-danger control also remains in the red, and the penalty kill has not stabilised. However, Anaheim’s finishing talent still drives value. Leo Carlsson added another point against Chicago and continues to anchor their most dangerous sequences. Cutter Gauthier remains a reliable transition threat, and Troy Terry has regained his playmaking rhythm. Ville Husso struggled against Utah and will likely get the start again in this one with both Lukas Dostal and Petr Mrazek injured. Anaheim’s challenge is simple: reduce slot volume against a Washington team that thrives off rebound and net-front sequences. Oh, and of course the Ovi one-timer from the left wing circle.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Leo Carlsson with 14:02 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Radko Gudas and Pavel Mintyukov.St. Louis: 1Anaheim: 3#ANAvsSTL #stlblues #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-02T03:17:59.802850Z
The Model
The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four inputs. The in-house projection incorporates share metrics, recent form, and finishing talent. MoneyPuck lists Washington at 55 percent. Advanced Hockey Stats gives Washington 54 percent on the road. The market also leans toward Washington with the latest line settling near −142. Anaheim receives a slight bump from home-ice and finishing talent, but its expected goal deficit widens the projection gap. Across all simulations, Washington lands at 54 percent with fair odds near −117. Anaheim sits at 46 percent with fair odds near +117.
NHL Prediction
Washington enters with a clearer structure and more consistent territorial control. Anaheim still carries strong finishing talent but their defensive lapses have widened against heavy forechecking teams. Meanwhile, Washington thrives in those exact environments and continues to generate layered pressure that forces turnovers below the goal line. However, Anaheim’s top line can still tilt short stretches, and their transition game offers its best path to an upset. The margins remain close, yet Washington’s recent form and advantage in expected goals push the edge slightly in their favour. If they don’t win this game, it’s because they are already thinking about ending this west coast road trip and sleeping in their own beds.
Prediction: Capitals win 4–2 (54% win probability)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 5–5
Prop Bets of the Night
Tonight’s prop card targets reliable usage patterns rather than streak chasing. Chris Kreider over 0.5 goals is an intriguing play given his role on Anaheim’s powerplay and history against the Capitals with the Rangers. Even in losses, Kreider gets plenty of net front chances on the powerplay, and Washington has some players that are known to take penalties (*cough* Tom Wilson *cough*). Alex Ovechkin over 3.5 shots (+130) also grades well. He has recorded steady volume across this six-game streak and faces an Anaheim defence that continues to allow high shot totals from the left side. Both props align with expected shot volume and projected game flow.
2025–26 Season Betting Record: 12–11 (+3.25 units)
Main Photo: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images
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