Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Florida Panthers. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions Overview
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to watch: The Spot, SCRIPPS
Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
2025–26 Season Series: Tampa Bay 1, Florida 0
The Bolts (18-11-3) welcome the rival Florida Panthers (16-13-2) in what should be a loud, hostile, and deeply personal chapter of the Battle of Florida. Tampa is coming off a shootout loss to the New York Islanders, powered by goals from Darren Raddysh and J.J Moser. Jonas Johansson turned aside 15 shots and slammed the door late, but let two of three go by him in the shootout. Florida arrives after a gritty 4-0 win over the Stars, where Brad Marchand did things. He had two goals, one assist, many chirps, and general menace.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Lightning are reeling with five losses in their last seven games and are starting to look like a team that remembers how to lose. They started the season winning one of their first seven. Then won six of seven. Then seven in a row. So, with the Hard Rock Casino a few blocks away, maybe it’s their lucky night with all the Sevens. Nikita Kucherov continues to stack points like he’s collecting Hockey cards of himself. He leads the team with 42 points (29 assists). Brandon Hagel‘s 18 Goals lead the team, and Jake Guentzel’s 15 Goals help anchor the top line. Andrei Vasilevskiy has quietly returned to Big Cat form, posting a .947 save percentage over his last five starts (four wins/SO loss). Tampa’s offence is humming, but against Florida, structure matters. Why? Because the Panthers turn chaos into a business model.
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
NHL Predictions believes Tampa’s biggest challenge is emotional discipline. Florida wants scrums, whistles, and after-the-whistle nonsense. Tampa must resist the urge to RSVP. Clean zone exits and quick puck movement will neutralize Florida’s heavy forecheck. Tampa’s power play can be a difference-maker, but it hasn’t so far. At 18.2%, their Power Play % is 21st in the league. So, staying out of the box is essential. Clear sightlines for Vasilevskiy are non-negotiable; Florida treats net-front traffic like it’s a Manhattan Avenue, double and triple parked.
Florida Panthers Outlook
The Panthers remain one of the league’s most irritatingly effective teams. With Aleksander Barkov out with surgery and Matthew Tkachuk on IR (but skating), the engine runs on Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart’s sheer will. Florida’s defence is physical and opportunistic, though not always tidy. Their 18.7 power play percentage is 18th and their 18.2 penalty kill percentage is 18th in the league. Neither light up the stat sheet. Mediocre stats have them fifth in the Atlantic, but that’s only five points behind the leader. You guessed it, these Bolts. Sergei Bobrovsky has been solid, winning his last three, even if occasionally dramatic. The Panthers thrive when games lose structure, and few teams are better at forcing opponents into mistakes fueled by frustration.
Keys to Victory – Florida
NHL Predictions says Florida’s path is familiar. They hit everything that moves, a few things that don’t and at least one fan during the National Anthem. Clog the neutral zone, and turn the game into a grind. Get pucks deep, crash the crease, and dare the refs to call everything. Anton Lundell has five points in his last five games. Make him the “how’d he beat us” poster child. Florida needs to pressure Tampa’s defence before it can settle and make life uncomfortable for Vasilevskiy with screens and deflections. On special teams, Florida must stay competitive. Even ranked in the middle of the pack, Tampa’s power play can erase momentum in seconds.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This one feels like a playoff game disguised as a Monday night. Tampa has the star power, home-ice advantage, and the calmer temperament. Florida has edge, depth, back-to-back Stanley Cups (that they have filled with ice and something more substantial than Kool-Aid) and a roster that feeds off irritation.
Prediction: Panthers 3, Lightning 2
Prop Bets of the Night
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Under 6.0 Total Goals (-110): These teams don’t do subtle, but it will tick just below.
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Kucherov Anytime Point (-260): Betting against him feels irresponsible.
Final Thoughts
NHL Predictions thinks this matchup delivers exactly what fans expect: speed, skill, snarl, and at least one moment where everyone yells at the television.
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions: December 15th Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.