Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the slate using matchup context, recent form, and underlying data analytics to project likely outcomes. This edition of NHL Predictions focuses on The Freeway Faceoff between the Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Los Angeles Kings
2025–26 Season Series: Tied 1–1
Time: 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 7:30 p.m. PT
How to Watch – US TV: FDSNW, Victory+, KCOP-13, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SNO, SNP, SNW, SN+
Location: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks enter Friday night at 22–21–3 after finally snapping a nine-game losing streak with a structured 3–1 win over Dallas. That result mattered. Not just in the standings, but in how it was achieved. Anaheim protected the middle of the ice, limited chaos, and leaned on Lukas Dostal rather than asking him to survive breakdowns. They also did it without their top three players: Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry, and Cutter Gauthier.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Kings sit at 19–16–11 and continue to live in tight margins. Los Angeles has pushed games to overtime more than almost anyone in the league, but recent results show diminishing returns. Process remains mostly intact. Execution, particularly finishing and late-game defending, has not always followed.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s season has become a case study in fragile margins. At five-on-five, the Ducks remain a positive possession team, ranking above league average in both Corsi and Fenwick. That showed again against Dallas, where Anaheim controlled shot quality rather than chasing volume.
However, the offensive ceiling remains limited. With Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier still not guaranteed to dress, much of the Ducks’ scoring equity comes from Jackson LaCombe activating from the back end and Beckett Sennecke finding space around the crease. When Anaheim plays direct and avoids extended defensive-zone shifts, it can stay competitive. When structure erodes, goals against arrive quickly.
Special teams remain a concern. Anaheim’s penalty kill is bottom third, and discipline lapses continue to shrink the margin for error.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Chris Kreider with 16:24 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Mikael Granlund and Radko Gudas.Anaheim: 1Dallas: 0#DALvsANA #FlyTogether #TexasHockey
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-14T04:29:03.437827Z
Los Angeles Kings Storyline
Los Angeles thrives on structure. Their forecheck is layered, their neutral-zone play is patient, and they rarely beat themselves with careless turnovers. At five-on-five, the Kings suppress high-danger looks effectively, even when their overall shot share dips.
Offensively, this is a more distributed group than Anaheim. Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield, and Brandt Clarke all drive play in different ways. Clarke, in particular, has become a transition weapon when opponents sit back, forcing defenders to respect his puck-carrying rather than cheating toward the wings.
Goaltending tilts the matchup slightly toward Los Angeles. Darcy Kuemper has been inconsistent, but Anaheim’s offensive profile does not typically punish small mistakes at a high rate.
Los Angeles goal!Scored by Brandt Clarke with 01:27 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala.Los Angeles: 2Vegas: 2#VGKvsLAK #GoKingsGo #VegasBorn
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-15T05:44:04.406191Z
The Prediction Model
The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model gives Los Angeles a 60 percent win probability, reflecting their defensive structure and ability to suppress high-danger chances at five-on-five. HockeyStats aligns closely, projecting the Kings at 62 percent based on shot quality and projected goal differential. MoneyPuck comes in slightly higher at 62.4 percent, driven by Anaheim’s limited finishing profile and Los Angeles’ edge in goaltending stability. After blending all sources, the Kings land at 61.5 percent, with fair odds around −160. Anaheim checks in at 38.5 percent, with fair odds near +160, placing the market largely in line with model consensus.
Credit Image: © Alex Cave/ZUMA Press Wire
NHL Prediction
This matchup shapes up as a controlled, low-event game. Anaheim’s path to success relies on structure, discipline, and keeping the game tight into the third period. However, Los Angeles has more reliable depth scoring and fewer ways to beat itself, especially at home. If the Kings establish their forecheck and force Anaheim into extended defensive-zone shifts, the Ducks’ margin narrows quickly. Anaheim has shown signs of stabilizing, but Los Angeles remains better positioned to dictate the game state late.
Prediction: Kings win 3–2 (Model probability: 61.5%)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 11–8
Prop Bets of the Night
This card prioritizes stable usage and repeatable shot volume rather than high-variance outcomes. Kevin Fiala over 2.5 shots on goal (-115) fits the matchup well, as his individual shot generation remains consistent regardless of score effects, and Anaheim tends to allow controlled entries on his side. On the Anaheim end, Jackson LaCombe over 0.5 assists (+160) offers value given how much of the Ducks’ offence now flows through his activation from the blue line. His minutes and puck-touch profile provide assist equity even if Anaheim struggles to score at five-on-five.
2025–26 Season Prop Bet Record: 20–21 (+2.40 units)
Lineup disclaimer: Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.
Please play responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images