Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the slate using matchup context, recent form, and underlying data analytics to project likely outcomes. This edition of NHL Predictions focuses on a Pacific Division matchup between the Anaheim Ducks and the Vegas Golden Knights. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks
2025–26 Season Series: Anaheim leads 2 – 0
Time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 6:30 p.m. PT
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SN, SN+, TVA
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Setting the Stage
The Ducks enter Sunday at 28–23–3, having lost their last outing in Vancouver but still riding one of their best stretches of the season. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights sit at 25–15–14, a record that looks strong on paper but masks some underlying five-on-five volatility. Anaheim has already beaten Vegas twice this season, both in tight games decided late. Based on current standings position, the Ducks need these two points more and will hope they leave this matchup three-for-three against the VGK this season.
Vegas Golden Knights Storyline
Vegas remains dangerous due to its depth, but the challenge is less daunting than in past seasons. The Golden Knights generate shot volume but have struggled to convert consistently at even strength. Their finishing rates sit below league average, placing extra pressure on special teams and goaltending. Adin Hill is expected to start, and while his overall numbers are solid, his recent form has been uneven.
Defensively, Vegas still controls the neutral zone well, but Anaheim has shown it can break that structure with quick puck movement and delayed entries. With Anaheim already holding a 2–0 edge in the season series, Vegas faces a subtle psychological hurdle alongside a tactical one.
Power play goal for Vegas!Scored by Mitch Marner with 00:12 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl.Vegas: 2Seattle: 2#SEAvsVGK #VegasBorn #SeaKraken
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-02-01T04:43:02.814747Z
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s identity has shifted noticeably over the past month. Rather than chasing games through pace alone, the Ducks have leaned into structure, allowing shot volume while protecting the middle of the ice. At five-on-five, Anaheim ranks top ten in expected goals against and continues to suppress high-danger chances effectively. Lukas Dostal is expected to start and has been strong at home, particularly when games stay low event.
Offensively, Cutter Gauthier and Mikael Granlund have driven most of the Ducks’ transition threat, while Jackson LaCombe’s growing offensive involvement from the blue line has added a second layer to Anaheim’s attack. Although the power play remains inconsistent, Anaheim’s penalty kill gives them some minor room to survive special teams swings.
Power play goal for Anaheim!Scored by Mikael Granlund with 06:22 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Beckett Sennecke and Jackson LaCombe.Edmonton: 5Anaheim: 4#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-27T04:21:46.612301Z
The Prediction Model
The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four evenly weighted inputs: five-on-five expected goal differential, special teams impact, goaltending performance, and rest-adjusted game state. The in-house model gives Vegas a 57 percent win probability, reflecting their depth scoring and ability to manage low-event games.
MoneyPuck aligns closely at 58.1 percent, driven by Vegas’ edge in finishing efficiency. HockeyStats is slightly lower at 55 percent, accounting for Anaheim’s recent defensive structure and home-ice suppression. After blending all sources, Vegas lands at 56.7 percent, with fair odds around −130. Anaheim checks in at 43.3 percent, corresponding to fair odds near +130.
NHL Predictions
This profiles as a disciplined, methodical game. Anaheim will look to keep the score tight and rely on defensive execution rather than pace. However, Vegas has more answers if the game turns into a track meet. Their ability to generate offence without sacrificing structure gives them a narrow but meaningful edge.
Prediction: Golden Knights win 3–2 (Model Probability: 56.7 percent)
2025–26 Prediction Record: 12–11
Prop Bets of the Night
Cutter Gauthier over 0.5 points (-135) remains in play given his key role in Anaheim’s transition game and his consistent involvement in scoring chances. Even when Anaheim’s offence stalls, Gauthier continues to touch the puck in dangerous areas, which preserves point equity in tight games.
On the Vegas side, Mark Stone over 0.5 assists (-135) offers value without relying on raw shot volume. Stone’s playmaking remains central to Vegas’ half-ice offence, particularly on controlled entries and power-play rotations. Against a Ducks team focused on protecting the middle, his ability to draw defenders and distribute from the walls creates assist paths even in low-scoring environments.
2025–26 Prop Bet Record: 26–23 (+6.73 units)
Main Photo Credit: Alex Gallardo – Imagn Images
Lineup disclaimer: Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.
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