Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the slate using matchup context, recent form, and underlying data analytics to project likely outcomes. This NHL Predictions focuses on the NHL’s Pacific Division crosstown matchup in Southern California, where the Anaheim Ducks head up the 5 Freeway to Los Angeles to face the Kings. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Prediction: Anaheim Ducks vs Los Angeles Kings
2025–26 Season Series: Ducks lead 1–0
How to Watch – US TV: FDSNW, KTTV, Victory+, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SN+
Time: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 6:00 p.m. PT
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks (21–14–2) enter this matchup still in a strong overall position despite a 3–1 loss to Seattle earlier in the week. That game followed a familiar pattern. Anaheim carried play for long stretches, generated enough looks to stay competitive, and ran into elite goaltending. The Ducks continue to control possession at five-on-five, but their room for error shrinks quickly when finishing dries up.
The Los Angeles Kings (15–12–9) are also coming off of a 3–2 loss to the Kraken, their sixth loss in seven games. Results have been poor, but the underlying profile is not as dismal as the record suggests. Los Angeles has been held to two goals or fewer in seven straight games, yet most of those contests have remained low event and tightly contested. This matchup again sets up as a pace battle, with Anaheim looking to push tempo and Los Angeles trying to keep the game moving like quicksand.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s identity is clear. At five-on-five, the Ducks sit comfortably above 51 percent in both Corsi and Fenwick, driven by controlled entries and layered rush attacks, rather than sustained cycle pressure. Even without Leo Carlsson in their last outing, Anaheim was still able to hit them with the ice tilt. The issue continues to be execution, they’re checking the figurative box in the process.
Defensively, breakdowns still appear once the first layer of coverage fails. Failed clears and loose slot coverage have inflated high-danger chances against, which places added pressure on Lukas Dostal. When Anaheim controls pace, that weakness is manageable. When games slow down, it becomes more costly. Tempo remains the Ducks’ biggest swing factor.
Los Angeles Kings Storyline
Los Angeles remains one of the league’s most structured five-on-five teams. The Kings rank above 52 percent in shot share and expected goals, but that control has not translated into consistent scoring. Their offence relies more on forecheck pressure and puck recovery than speed through the neutral zone, which limits quick-strike opportunities.
Special teams remain a concern. The Kings have allowed power play goals in four straight games and sit in the bottom third of the league on the penalty kill. Recent line shuffling, including pairing Kevin Fiala and Andrei Kuzmenko, showed some promise, but scoring depth remains thin. For Los Angeles, winning usually means keeping games low event and avoiding early deficits.
The Model
The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model gives Los Angeles a modest edge at 54 percent, driven by home ice and defensive suppression. MoneyPuck leans more heavily toward the Kings at 59.6 percent, reflecting Anaheim’s finishing volatility. HockeyStats projects a similar outcome, favouring Los Angeles in a low-scoring environment.
After blending all inputs, the Kings land at 56.1 percent, with fair odds near −128. Anaheim checks in at 43.9 percent, with fair odds around +128. This shapes up as a Kings-style game unless Anaheim can force pace early.
NHL Prediction
Los Angeles has the clearer path to dictating how this game is played. Their structure limits rush chances and forces Anaheim to work for offence below the dots. The Ducks can still tilt play in spurts, but their scoring margin remains thin against teams that slow the game down.
Expect a tight matchup where one breakdown decides it. Anaheim’s speed keeps them involved, but Los Angeles’ defensive discipline gives them the edge at home.
Prediction: Kings win 3–2 (Model Probability: 56.1%)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 8–8
Prop Bets of the Night
This prop card leans toward volume rather than pure finishing. Adrian Kempe over 2.5 shots on goal (-115) fits well against an Anaheim defence that tends to allow perimeter attempts while protecting the slot. Los Angeles relies on his straight-line game to generate early-zone pressure. On the Ducks’ side, Troy Terry over 0.5 assists (+125) offers value based on role. Anaheim’s offence frequently runs through Terry as a primary distributor off controlled entries, giving him assist equity even in lower-scoring games.
Lineup disclaimer: Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources and social media prior to placing any wagers or setting daily fantasy lineups.
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Main Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images