It’s time for the pinnacle of NHL player point projections. It is time for Connor McDavid‘s 2025-26 point projection, the number-one centre of the back-to-back Stanley Cup Finalist Edmonton Oilers. Say what you will about Leon Draisaitl and McDavid’s inability to capture a championship at their current age versus some of their peers (Nikita Kucherov or Nathan MacKinnon, for instance). The fact of the matter remains, they have helped power a dominant NHL franchise over the past while. Some of the Oilers players are at the top of their game, if not the entire NHL. So, that begins to explain why the best the NHL has to offer, makes for a difficult point estimate to come up with for us prognosticators. But without further adieu, let’s get into it.
Connor McDavid’s 2025-26 Total Point Projection
Speaking of the very best to ever do it, let’s consider a stat. Let’s look at the most points in an individual season, but a different player. That’s right, McDavid’s 2022-23 season has him ranked fourth, all-time.
- Wayne Gretzky (215 points) – owns the top four spots and nine of the top 11 on NHL’s all-time list of most points in a single season.
- Mario Lemieux (199 points) – the only other player to top 160 points in a single NHL season, and he did it four times.
- Steve Yzerman (155 points) – the third most points in a single NHL season by a different player. Remarkable.
- Next – 97 – (2022-23 and 64 goals, 89 assists, for 153 points). Through 10 NHL seasons, five Art Ross Trophies.
This shows how high McDavid’s ceiling for total points in a season could be, in this upcoming season, or any year for that matter. It would lead to high variability in prediction models for how many points to expect from him. The idea we are considering, is that he has the highest upside, of all current NHLers. There is some thought he may have reached his peak, that it was a once in a lifetime ride. Well if it in fact was, he did do an amazing job at it we might add.
The one aspect of his ’22-23 campaign that was very impressive, even to the casual observer, was his amazing ability to score goals. He seemed to turn it on like a light switch. Assists already seem to come easy, as they did for a couple other players at that time (and continue to) as well, Kucherov and MacKinnon. However, the ability to score a lot of goals, like Auston Matthews or Alex Ovechkin, is an incredible skill in its own right.
Let’s Get Down To It and How Many Goals Can We Expect
Based on his career stats, over his ten seasons, he has accumulated 361 goals. However, another way to look at his totals, is his goals-per-60-minutes. Most seasons he has ranged between 1.0 and 1.6, fairly normally distributed. We say most, but the one year he was outside that range, the outlier, oh, again, 2022-23. That amazing season, he was at 2.1. He was in shoot first, ask questions later mode that year. Even his shots/60 minutes was a career-high 11.5. For comparison, last year he was at 8.0. Furthermore, the increased shooting likely elevated his rhythm and confidence. His 18.2 shooting percentage was also a career best, and last year he was at 13.3%, with a career 15.0%.
The Western Conference is looking somewhat strong for 2025-26. Therefore, it is possible shooting percentages may be on the low-end, but a ultra-talented player like McDavid, you’d like to think a player at his individual prowess would be somewhat immune to this type of generalized regression pattern shift. Although, McDavid has matured in his career. He knows the regular season is just about hitting the status quo. Therefore, if he is finding a level that works for team to win enough games and make the playoffs comfortably, why push it? That could be a reason why he is better off focusing on assists. Thus, getting the rest of his teammates going.
Moving On To the Discussion of Delicate Dishes
Looking at McDavid’s simple NHL seasonal totals, one observation on his consistency, is a benchmark he’s reached for assists in a season. Seven times he has had 70 assists or more, and five years in a row. Therefore, it is likely he is a maintaining a level at the higher side of that discussion 80-85. Moreover, if you averaged his career stats over an NHL 82 game stretch, he has 83 assists.
One anomaly throughout McDavid’s NHL career, is that he’s played seasons of 45 games and 82 games, and everywhere in between. And besides his first season, he’s missed very few games. In fact, the 15 games he missed in 2024-25, was the second most of his career, besides that rookie campaign of his. So, we will just say, keep this idea in mind when locking in your total point projection from our thoughts.
His Team, the Oilers
We haven’t even talked about his teammates. Where would McDavid be without them? The Oilers have high-end skill at the forward position. Also, a lot of that core has been there for a few years, if not longer. Having Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman at his disposal, means he is going to have proven scoring threats on his line with him. They are guys that can finish. Of course, then there’s Leon Draisaitl. They are one of the top offensive duos, and often link up on the power play. To put it in perspective, Draisaitl has hit 100 points in six of the last seven season. The only season he didn’t was 2020-21, you know the COVID-shortened schedule (84 points in 56 games, or over 82 games, a 123-point pace). In any case, the supporting cast McDavid’s has, will do nothing to take away from his offensive output.
So, what do we have then? Coming back refocused, after a relaxing summer, we are looking for McDavid to play at least 75-80 games. Also, even though we discussed factors impacting his goal total, we didn’t provide a finalized calculation. We would say he will land somewhere around 1.3 to 1.5 goals per 60 minutes. That’s right around his career average, but a little more than he has had the last two seasons. If McDavid is around that value and his career average in time on ice, playing 80 games, that lands him around 38 to 44 goals. In addition, that would impact his previously referenced assist projection, you’d have to think. If McDavid’s the one scoring the goals, his assist values would invariably be lower. There’s no reason to anticipate a huge increase in team play that could cause that such a thing from occurring.
Therefore, putting a number on Connor McDavid’s point projection, we will try to maintain some conservatism. We like our assist projection, but total points and goals, would depend on games played more so. If we land McDavid at 38-to-44 goals, and 80-85 assists, that amounts to approximately 120-130 points. Over the last number of seasons, he has maintained an absolutely ridiculous point-per-game total. Don’t look for 2025-26 to put an end to that streak. Going back to the beginning of the 2018-19 season, McDavid’s PPG is 1.642. That would be nearly 135 points over a full 82. Difficult? Yes. Probable for McDavid? We like it!
Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton – USA TODAY Sports
The post From the Edmonton Oilers, Number 97, Connor McDavid’s 2025-26 NHL Point Projection appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.