In today’s edition of NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey, we bring you an all-Canadian version featuring the Edmonton Oilers hosting the Ottawa Senators. Both teams have their own battle in the standings ongoing. We expect a free-flowing affair, as both teams turn up the offensive fire. But who is left standing at the end of the night? Find out our analysis, stats, and storylines, next.
NHL Predictions Oilers and Senators
Season Series: The Oilers won their only other meeting this year, 3-2 in overtime, back in October.
Puck Drop: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST) | 7:00 p.m. Mountain Standard Time (MST)
How to Watch: Sportsnet West (Oilers Region), TSN5, RDS2
Location: Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta.
The Oilers do find themselves in a Stanley Cup Playoff position, but the standings in the Western Conference are tight. Eight teams are between 62 and 70 points, including six from the Oilers’ Pacific Division. Therefore, the battle for jockeying for position will continue for a couple weeks, at least.
For Ottawa, the Eastern Conference is no different, as things are very competitive. Five teams have either 75 or 76 points in the standings. Now, Ottawa is not one of those teams, but they are hot on the heels of the Boston Bruins at 71 points. Ottawa is at 41% chance at the playoffs, while Boston sits at 55%. Needless to say, all games are very important.
The Oilers Side of Things
Leon Draisaitl likes to lead by example. We have seen that in his post-game interviews of late. He wants to make sure his team is as refined as possible before the playoffs. Furthermore, Draisaitl is scoring at a great pace this year. In 58 games, he has 31 goals and 54 assists for 85 points. Draisaitl trails his friend Connor McDavid. McDavid’s 103 points has him positioned for another (he has five) Art Ross scoring title. Currrently, he has a four-point lead over Nathan MacKinnon.
As the Oilers load up for the playoffs, the trade deadline might be a big factor. Landing defenceman Connor Murphy will really help round out their blueline. Having guys like Darnell Nurse and Jake Walman, this is a team hoping they have the depth to win in the postseason. That depth might be an advantage they have over Ottawa for tonight’s game.
Credit Image: © Federico Manoni/ZUMA Press Wire
Ottawa’s Story
Meanwhile, the story in Ottawa, is that they continue to be an analytic darling of a team. According to MoneyPuck, Ottawa is third in the NHL at 5v5 expected goal percentage (55.5%). This is a stat the Oilers are also strong in. They are seventh at 51.4%. Furthermore, the reason the Oilers are strong is all their high-end talent driving play, holding onto the puck, and generating chances, seemingly at will. In any case, the skill of both teams forward groups, is a recipe to keep the scoreline tight.
It is interesting that despite the Oilers advantage in the standings, both teams struggle in getting results. If we look at a complementary stat to expected goals, we will look at goal differential above expected at 5v5. Ottawa isn’t great at -14.3, good for 23rd. That is slightly ahead of Edmonton in 26th with a -18.4. Maybe this matchup will be a good learning experience for each teams’ defensive structure.
We think that the Oilers high-end players will be keep the same players occupied for Ottawa. Therefore, look for the Sens depth upfront to be a key differentiator. Guys like Shane Pinto or Ridly Greig have picked it up at times throughout the season. It might be time for someone to step up, if they are going to continue their push for the postseason.
The Goalies
The goaltending matchup is just recently confirmed to be Linus Ullmark (17-8-6) against Connor Ingram (7-6-1).
However, it is a great time for our disclaimer. Please check social media prior to puck drop, to see definitely who gets the nod, before setting your fantasy roster for the day.
NHL Predictions
This game has tons of importance. Not just for the standings, but also determining the fate of Ottawa’s trade deadline in just three days. We think Ottawa’s urgency wins out, but just barely.
Prediction: Oilers 4 – Senators 5
Prop Bets
Given this being a special all-Canadian edition of NHL Predictions, we can mix in a bigger parlay pick ’em. Now, we will warn you we don’t normally do this, but let’s give it a try. Leon Draisaitl is your anytime scorer. Tim Stutzle will get his two shots on goal. As for a point getter, throw in on Ridly Greig. Hits? Well, we do follow the Sens pretty closely. We like Dylan Cozens to get a pair of those. We find it hard to imagine 97 is held pointless, so add him for an appearance on the scoresheet, too. Any questions? A few, if we are being honest.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
Linus Ullmark to start tonight.
— Coming In Hot (@ComingInHotSens) March 3, 2026
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