Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features a rematch of the 2003 Stanley Cup Final with the Anaheim Ducks hosting the New Jersey Devils. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: New Jersey Devils vs Anaheim Ducks
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting this season (2024-25 Season Series: Devils 1 – 1 Ducks)
Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 5:00 p.m. Pacific Standard Time (PST)
US TV: Victory+; MSGSN; KCOP-13; ESPN+
Canada TV: Sportsnet Plus
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks (6–3–1) continue their homestand having won four of their last five, including a 5–2 statement over Detroit that showcased how quickly their young core is maturing. Leo Carlsson stole the spotlight with four points and a command of the game that caught the attention of the entire league, while Troy Terry extended his point streak to six. Quenneville’s group is playing with structure and swagger, a rare combination for a team this young. Meanwhile, the New Jersey Devils (9–3–0) enter Anaheim on the second half of a back-to-back after earning a 4–1 win over Los Angeles. Dawson Mercer scored twice shorthanded, Nico Hischier and Brian Halonen added goals, and Jacob Markstrom turned aside 43 shots to seal the victory. The Devils snapped a two-game skid with one of their most complete defensive efforts of the season, though the quick turnaround could test their legs.
New Jersey Devils Storyline
The Devils have steadied after a brief wobble, improving to 9–3–0 behind one of the league’s most territorially sound profiles. Their five-on-five metrics remain strong across the board, posting a 52.8 Corsi percentage and 49.4 expected goals share through 12 games. That balance reflects a team controlling possession but still searching for consistent finishing. Jack Hughes continues to drive the attack with 15 points, and Jesper Bratt’s 13 points in 12 games highlight how dangerous New Jersey’s transition game remains. Dawson Mercer has surged into form with five goals in his past five outings, including two shorthanded against Los Angeles. Defensively, Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes anchor a blueline that pushes pace, but occasionally leaks high-danger looks. Their five-on-five expected goals against rate sits at 2.66 per 60 minutes. On special teams, the Devils’ power play has been clinical at 32.3%, while their penalty kill sits top five at 86%, often masking uneven goaltending between Jake Allen (.906) and Jacob Markstrom (.875).
New Jersey goal!Scored by Jack Hughes with 03:07 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Simon Nemec.New Jersey: 4Colorado: 3#COLvsNJD #NJDevils #GoAvsGo
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-10-26T19:51:58.355794Z
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
The Ducks’ rebuild appears to be accelerating ahead of schedule. Leo Carlsson has evolved into the team’s offensive heartbeat, recording 15 points in 10 games and thriving under Joel Quenneville’s guidance. Troy Terry has also rediscovered his scoring touch with 10 points over his last six outings. Anaheim’s structure has quietly improved; an xGF% of 45.8 and CF% just above 50 show a balanced five-on-five team that limits high-danger looks against. Lukáš Dostál has provided steady goaltending with a .907 save percentage, while the power play continues to trend upward (20%). Cutter Gauthier’s recent chemistry with Carlsson and Terry has added a new layer of unpredictability to Anaheim’s attack.
Short-handed goal for Anaheim!Scored by Troy Terry with 15:07 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Drew Helleson.Anaheim: 1Detroit: 0#DETvsANA #FlyTogether #LGRW
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-11-01T02:23:01.011159Z
The Prediction Model
Our blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four equally weighted inputs: the in-house projection, MoneyPuck, the market with assumed vig influence removed, and Advanced Hockey Stats. Results are updated nightly as team strengths evolve.
Across simulations, the Devils win 54% of outcomes (fair odds equivalent to –128), while the Ducks claim 46% (+114). New Jersey’s speed and special teams give them a marginal edge, but Anaheim’s rest advantage and offensive cohesion close the gap. Expect the Ducks to test New Jersey’s structure through extended possession shifts and high-slot movement.
NHL Predictions
This one comes down to pace control. If Anaheim can keep the Devils to the outside and win the special-teams battle, they have a real chance to extend their homestand success. The Devils are dangerous in transition, but a second straight night of travel and heavy minutes for their top pair could tilt things toward the fresher group.
Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (46% win probability)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 2–3
Prop Bets of the Night
We close this NHL Prediction by leaning into a theme that has quietly powered Anaheim’s early surge: offensive momentum. The Ducks to score 1+ powerplay goal at +105 remains attractive, especially after consecutive games with man advantage markers. Their puck movement has been crisp and Carlsson’s command on the half wall has created multiple seam looks per night. The companion play is over 6.5 total goals at −105, a number that aligns with how both teams generate offence rather than defend it. New Jersey ranks among the top ten in xG/60 at five on five, while Anaheim thrives in wide open exchanges. If the pace holds, both teams should trade chances early and often, giving each prop a fair chance to cash.
2025–26 Season Betting Record: 5–7 (−2.03 units)
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Main Photo: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
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