Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Dallas Stars in Dallas, TX. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions Overview
Time: 2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to watch: The Spot, Victory+
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
2025–26 Season Series: Lightning 1, Stars 0
Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (29-13-4) stay on the road for their fifth game to challenge the Dallas Stars (27-12-9) in what should be a high-octane matchup between two teams with playoff aspirations. Tampa Bay’s offence has been elite this season, averaging 3.48 goals per game (2nd in NHL). Dallas counters with a strong offensive attack of its own (3.31 goals per game, top-10) and one of the league’s best power plays. Earlier this season in Tampa, the Bolts skated away with a 2–1 overtime win in a defensive, hard-fought game that featured Anthony Cirelli’s OT heroics and strong goaltending.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay has been rolling, highlighted by a stretch where they nearly tied the franchise’s longest win streak. Their 11-game run was stopped in a 3–2 shootout loss to the Blues. Nikita Kucherov is already marked as a future Hall of Famer, but he’s playing lately like he’s trying to get there in the EZ-PASS lane. Tampa’s balanced attack, with Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Gage Goncalves all chipping in, makes them difficult to contain when they find rhythm. Tampa Bay’s elite penalty kill (around 83.9%) gives them a strong foundation. Defensively, Tampa must stop giving Dallas’s top players time and space. Give them crevices to crawl through. Stars forwards like Robertson and Duchene can punish lapses.
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
NHL Predictions thinks the Bolts need to focus deeper on winning the middle frame. Tampa needs to control transition through the neutral zone and stay out of the box. Dallas’s power play, led by Robertson and Johnston, is no joke. And no one likes NHL players laughing with that many teeth missing. Get contributions from depth. Secondary scoring will prevent Dallas from focusing solely on shutting down Kucherov and Point. Keeping Dallas’s dangerous power play off the scoresheet helps Tampa tilt possession and keep Dallas from swinging momentum.
Dallas Stars Outlook
The Stars have been up and down recently but remain a dangerous opponent. Even after dropping their last two games with only one goal in each, they remain one of the NHL’s better offensive units. They are a real threat at 5-on-4, with a power play that can turn a close game upside down. The Stars have enough scoring balance with Robertson, Duchene, Seguin, and Hintz when healthy. They can put sustained pressure on Tampa, especially if they manage to avoid over-committing in transition. Dallas ranks among the NHL’s best on the power play and has enough firepower up front to generate offence from multiple lines. Goaltending from Oettinger, when sharp, can steal periods by itself; Tampa will need traffic in front and high-danger chances to break through against a stout Dallas defence.
Keys to Victory – Dallas
NHL Predictions thinks Dallas needs to score early and often. Not rocket science, but they seem to be skipping that class in school. Getting on the board first, especially at home, puts Tampa in a reactive mode that can stretch defences. Special teams matter. Dallas’s top-tier power play must cash in early to tilt possession and sap Tampa’s momentum. Solid netminding by Oettinger’s timely saves can keep Dallas competitive in tight games.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This feels like a classic East vs. West chess match. Tampa’s firepower against Dallas’s disciplined, opportunistic attack. Tampa’s depth and hot scoring make them slight favourites, but Dallas’s special teams and home crowd energy could tilt the scales.
Prediction: Lightning 4, Stars 3 (OT)
A tightly contested battle decided in extra time, because NHL games without overtime are like pancakes without syrup: enjoyable, but a bit disappointing.
Prop Bets of the Night
Always check updated lineups and odds before locking in bets or DFS rosters.
Over 6.0 Total Goals (-110): Both teams have the firepower to keep the scoreboard guy busy.
Robertson Anytime Scorer (+150): Dallas’s dynamic forward is one of their best scoring options.
Final Thoughts
NHL Predictions expects a fast, physical game with momentum swings, high-danger chances, and special teams playing a defining role. Tampa has the scoring edge, but Dallas’s balanced attack and home ice can make this a classic late-season slugfest.
Main photo by: Chris Jones-Imagn Images
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