Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: MSGSN2, TSN, ESPN+
This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents at opposite ends of the standings. The Islanders are at the bottom of the Metropolitan Divison. They hold a record of 12-14-7 through 33 games, good for 31 points. The Maple Leafs sit first in the Atlantic Divison. Their record is 21-10-2 through 33 games, good for 44 points. This will be the first of three matchups between these teams. The first is tonight in Canada at the Scotiabank Arena. They played just twice last season with the Islanders taking both games. New York has won the last four meetings between the two.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, they have gotten healthier in recent days with the return of Mathew Barzal. However, it hasn’t translated into wins as they have dropped the last two games in a row. They will get even more help with the return of Anthony Duclair as he was activated from LTIR on Friday. That move suggests he should be ready for this game and he should slot right back into a top-6 role. The reinforcements come at a good time with the team falling five points out in the wild card race. These two will look to give a boost to the 28th-ranked offence averaging 2.55 goals per game. They will also look to help out their powerplay which ranks dead last in the league at 12.1%.
The Islanders’ defence also just received some help with the return of Adam Pelech. It hasn’t helped, as the team has given up four or more goals in the last three games. This stretch has dropped them down to 20th in goals against with 3.09 per game. One big reason is the penalty kill ranks dead last in the league. Special teams continue to be the downfall of this team. Another reason could be Ilya Sorokin getting a little run down. He made his ninth consecutive start in the last game. He will continue to get all the starts he can handle until Semyon Varlamov can return from LTIR. The season numbers are still good despite the tough couple of games. He is 9-10-4 with a .904 save percentage and 2.81 goals against.
The Maple Leafs Story
This is the second of a back-to-back for the Maple Leafs. They come into this one after a 6-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres the night before. This win was their third in a row. Their offence has been humming in these games as they have scored five-plus goals in all three of those contests. Led by Mitch Marner with 44 points in 33 games, he is surrounded by many other talented players. His linemate, their captain Auston Matthews who is on a four-game point streak is one of them. William Nylander is another, he has six points in his last three games. Former Islander John Tavares has six points in the last three as well. They have scored 103 goals, 12th most in the league and they have three lines that can hurt you on any night.
For as good as their offence is, the defence is just as good. They have only given up 87 goals this season, sixth least in the league. Their strong penalty kill is a big reason why. They rank seventh on the kill at a strong 83%. Furthermore, they don’t allow their opponents many chances. 699 shots on goal against is 13th in the league. Of those shots, only 61 were high-danger, which also ranks 13th. Torontos goalies also deserve high praise as well. Starter Anthony Stolarz was having a great season before a recent knee injury will shelve him for four to six weeks. In his absence Joseph Woll will see more action, he is also having a strong campaign. Woll is 9-4 with a .918 save percentage and 2.30 goals against. He will probably start this game as Matt Murray made the start against the Sabres. His first NHL action since April 2, 2023 and his first win since March 23, 2023.
Prediction
The best part of NHL predictions. On paper, the Maple Leafs have the advantage in every facet of the game. From offence, and defence to goaltending and special teams Toronto has the Islanders beat. However, one thing New York does have is rest on its side. The Maple Leafs are on the second of a back-to-back while the Islanders have not played since Tuesday. In addition, the Islanders need this game so much more, expect them to play a desperate hockey game. These factors along with the return of Anthony Duclair could be enough for New York to pull off an upset in Canada.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-2
Prop Bets
Fanduel rightfully has the Islanders as underdogs in this game, take their money line +155. The over/under is set at 5.5. With the Maple Leafs’ dangerous offence and the Islanders getting back one of their better players, take the over at -124. As far as any-time goal scorers. For the Islanders take Anthony Duclair in his return game at +390. For the Maple Leafs, take John Tavares to score against his old team at +200.
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Main Photo: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
The post NHL Predictions: December 21 New York Islanders Vs Toronto Maple Leafs appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.