I now understand why bettors may put their money on the San Francisco 49ers over the Los Angeles Rams in 2025
You can make the argument that the Los Angeles Rams are in a better position to win the NFC West and push for a playoff spot over the San Francisco 49ers in 2025, but as NBC Sports recently wrote about the strength of schedule for SF and L.A., they came away with the idea that it is the 49ers who have the better odds to win the division over L.A, and it makes some sense.
Months ago I wondered how Vegas and bettors could pick SF over L.A. this coming season, and with the 49ers playing the previous season’s last place teams in the NFC East, the AFC North and NFC North, while the Rams play some of the NFL’s top teams (as of last year), I think I get it now.
For example, next season the Rams will take on the Philadelphia Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions.
By comparison, the 49ers take on the New York Giants, the Cleveland Browns and the Chicago Bears.
Which slate of teams would you say is easier?
I would say the Eagles, Ravens and Lions can all repeat as division winners, and thus are perceived as “tougher” opponents than the Giants, Browns and Bears.
Now, to be fair, there are no easy Sundays in the NFL and strength of schedule involves ample speculation. Yes, a good team has a chance of being a good team more consistently than a bad team, but what makes a good team? What makes a bad team?
Strength of schedule can be a tool to predict a team’s success, but it’s a not a magic ball. Teams can change in the NFL fast, and can go from outsiders to contenders, and losers to champions.
A couple years ago the Houston Texans were struggling, then CJ Stroud was drafted as their quarterback and they’ve made back-to-back playoff appearances since.
Last season, the Washington Commanders weren’t expected to do much by many, but they added Jayden Daniels at quarterback, and they made the NFC Championship game.
Once upon a time the Rams struggled under Jeff Fisher, who was fired midseason, and Jared Goff was labeled a bust. Then the team hired Sean McVay, and the team started to make postseason runs as Goff shed the bust label.
On the flip side of that coin, successful teams one year may fall apart the next, ask McVay and the Rams about their losing season in 2022 after winning the Super Bowl in 2021.
So, it’s not inconceivable that San Fran has a better year than the Rams, especially if Christian McCaffrey comes back healthy, but based on last year’s results, the Rams seem ready to take a step forward towards a Super Bowl, while the 49ers would take a step forward with a winning record.
However, I don’t think bettors are as concerned about the Rams roster vs. the 49ers roster straight up (though maybe they should be), what they are more interested in seems to be the strength of schedules for each franchise, and right now, the 49ers have a perceived easier path to the postseason than the Rams based on both teams’ schedules.
We’ll see if the hypothesis holds true or not this upcoming season, and until then, pick your division winners wisely. It’s anyone’s year in July.