What a Stafford-Trevor Lawrence trade would look like

Is the 2021 Stafford-Goff trade repeating itself with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars new GM from L.A.?

The similarities of 2021 are so eerie that is worth exploring the potential of a Matthew Stafford for Trevor Lawrence trade and if you think that a blockbuster of that magnitude is impossible then you’ve never met Les Snead, who has informed Stafford’s agents that they can gauge their value with other teams. People have been asking for weeks what the NFL’s version of the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade would be and while Lawrence is no Luka, this is as close as it could get.

Though there are complications to the Jacksonville Jaguars trading Lawrence due to his contract, the Los Angeles Rams are maybe the only team that could pull it off because of Stafford.

Here’s how it would work, but first the similarities to 2021:

The Jaguars hired a GM from the Rams

Just as in 2021 with Brad Holmes, the Jaguars have hired a new general manager out of L.A.’s front office, this time that person being James Gladstone.

The Lions hired Holmes in 2021 and he immediately traded an unhappy Stafford to his old boss in exchange for a Jared Goff and two first round picks. Opening the familiarity pipeline between L.A. and Jacksonville just as two quarterbacks face uncertain futures means that the one GM around the league who Gladstone knows he can work with is Snead.

The Jaguars hired a HC who worked under Sean McVay

This wasn’t even one of the factors from 2021, it’s just more reason to think that Jacksonville would be a sensible landing spot for Matthew Stafford. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen, the Rams offensive coordinator in 2022, as their new head coach and play caller.

That’s the only season that Stafford and Coen have worked together (he was at Kentucky in 2021) and it didn’t go well, but it does mean that Stafford would have a smooth transition to the Jacksonville offense. Smoother than probably any other QB the Jaguars could start, including Lawrence.

The trade would complement their respective needs

Of course the Jaguars most likely hired Coen with the intention to bring the most out of Lawrence, but if Gladstone could pull off what Holmes pulled off in Detroit (making arguably the worst franchise in the NFL into a Super Bowl contender despite trading for a QB downgrade in his first year on the job) and add assets to their future then Jacksonville could be better off than with Lawence.

We also all pretty much know that since Lawrence was drafted and Stafford was traded in 2021, that Stafford has been the better quarterback. If he goes to the Jaguars in 2025, that’s a division that he could help them win immediately.

Conversely, the Rams see that they have a really young defense and a really old offense. Without a clear path towards drafting a QBOTF (L.A. picks 26th in a weak QB class this year), Lawrence represents a long-term future for Sean McVay and the head coach with a penchant for former number one overall picks has never had the chance to coach and develop someone like Lawrence.

Another similarity here being that Goff was picked first, Stafford was picked first, and Lawrence was picked first.

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Everyone knows that Lawrence was pretty bad last season and there’s no guarantee that he’s going to get better with Coen. Even despite making the playoffs once, Lawrence has a career record of 22-38 and the Jaguars best record with him is 9-8. Owner Shad Khan seems tired of waiting and potentially losing 13 or 14 games again.

Stafford would give the Jaguars better odds of winning 11 or 12 games in 2025. But Lawrence would give McVay better odds of still wanting to coach the Rams in 2026.

How would a Stafford-Goff trade work?

So the big road block to trading Lawrence is that a pre-June trade leaves a $100 million dead cap hit on the Jaguars payroll in 2025: That’s $83 million more than Lawrence’s current cap hit!

Believe it or not, that’s not entirely untenable if that’s what Jacksonville did (they could cut, restructure, and extend certain players to get compliant but it would be too hard), but that’s not what they would do here.

No, the Jaguars would trade Lawrence AFTER June 1st.

“But wait! That couldn’t work! They wouldn’t get any 2025 draft picks!”

Exactly. Which would be a problem usually…unless the Jaguars knew they were getting a really good quarterback in return.

Which in this case, they would be.

As Stafford — and potentially Cooper Kupp — are at the crux of this trade, the Jaguars would be able to stabilize or even upgrade their quarterback position while also acquiring draft picks in the future. That’s not something that most teams can offer to Jacksonville and on L.A.’s end, the opportunity to trade Stafford after the draft means that they can acquire a QBOTF, afford to pay him, move Kupp, and still keep all of their draft picks in 2025.

Stafford-Lawrence post-June 1 cap implications

If the Jaguars wait and trade Lawrence after June 1st, they will have to pay his $35 million option bonus in March but then they’re kind of scot free.

OverTheCap says that trading Lawrence in June leaves only a $14.5 million dead cap hit in 2025 and $2.5 million in cap savings. It does put a major dent in their 2026 salary cap, but not enough to do irreparable damage and we all know that the salary cap continues to increase a lightning pace.

If they did this trade, the Jaguars would have cap space in 2025, cap space in 2026, Matthew Stafford, 2026 draft picks, and maybe Kupp.

The Rams would take on Lawrence’s contract — including guaranteed $35 million roster bonuses in 2026 and 2027 — but they would also save $27 million against the cap in 2025 by trading Stafford after June 1st.

“Impossible” dead cap/salary cap implications right now become possible, if not favorable, if the teams agree to wait and make a trade in June.

Stafford-Lawrence trade terms

Rams get: QB Trevor Lawrence, 2026 fourth round pick

Jaguars get: QB Matthew Stafford, 2026 first round pick, 2027 second round pick, WR Cooper Kupp

We could probably get more creative than this, and I’m sure some Rams fans are hesitant to trade a first and a second in addition to Stafford in order to get a QB who was bad last season, but Trevor Lawrence has never had Sean McVay as a coach.

McVay got the most out of Goff compared to Jeff Fisher. McVay got the most out of Stafford compared to all the coaches that he had in Detroit. McVay got the most out of Baker Mayfield compared to Kevin Stefanski.

I would bet that McVay could get the most out of the 25-year-old, 6’6, 220 lb, former top prospect in the country, national champion, first overall pick Trevor Lawrence.

On Jacksonville’s side, they can’t really agree to give up the rights to that quarterback for a quarterback who is 12 years older than him unless they can really sell people on the fact that not only does Stafford give them a better chance to win in 2025, but that he’s bringing valuable draft picks with him.

Plus, what does Les Snead care about first round picks?

By waiting until June 1, the Rams will have also paid Kupp’s entire $7.5 million roster bonus (which they might do anyway), they got a team to take him, and they even kept him packaged with Stafford. The Jaguars, eager to replace Christian Kirk (who might even make sense going to L.A. in this case), would now have an offense with Stafford, Kupp, and Brian Thomas, Jr., rather than just the one with Lawrence and Thomas.

They also get to keep their 2025 first round pick (5th overall) and can potentially now use that on an offensive lineman to help protect Stafford. Or to improve the defense, which also helps the offense.

It has to be that enticing of a situation in order for the Jaguars to part with Lawrence and on the other side, it’s an enticing deal for Snead and McVay because they found a home for Stafford and Kupp (in the AFC) without having to commit to two of the oldest starters in the NFL beyond 2025.

Who wins the trade?

Just like 2021, this is a win-win. It’s just that the roles are kind of reversed in a way.

The Rams won the Super Bowl with Stafford, while the Lions got multiple draft picks that helped them build a Super Bowl contender around Goff.

In this case, the Jaguars could actually contend in the AFC next season, while the move is more long-term for the Rams. Except that it’s really a long-term move for both teams. The Rams would have a QB who is 12 years younger than Stafford, but Snead has proven that he can build a championship roster without first round picks. The Jaguars would have a QB who is closer to 40 than 30, but they would supercharge Coen’s first year as head coach and still land more draft capital in the future.

Both teams win, both teams escape their respective uncertain cap situations with QBs who might be on the way out anyway, and neither team looks stale in 2025.

But can both teams be bold enough to wait until June to do it?