With the Rams beating the 49ers, the NFC West is a true 3-team race
The answer to the question “Who will win the NFC West?” is as simple as it is complicated: The team that wins the rest of their games will win the NFC West.
In fact, the Cardinals will win the division if they win the rest of their games and the Seahawks don’t go 4-0 or 3-1, and would finish ahead of the Rams. If that seems outlandish, the Cardinals will be heavily favored in three of their four remaining games, with the one exception being the Rams game in Week 17.
So essentially, the Rams will be playing playoff games for the rest of the season:
- Week 16, Jets (must-win)
- Week 17, Cardinals (must-win)
- Week 18, Seahawks (must-win)
The team that doesn’t have a slip-up in the next 4 weeks is the team that will win the division.
That seems obvious, but the NFC West is actually a rare 3-way race in which all three teams — the 8-6 Rams, 8-5 Seahawks, and even the 6-7 Cardinals — can win the division if they win the rest of their games. And as ridiculous as that sounds for an Arizona team that is essentially THREE games behind Seattle in the standings right now (they got swept by the Seahawks, so it’s a 3-game lead), the Cardinals might actually have the most forgiving path to winning the division.
Because if the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals all finish 10-7, then Arizona most likely wins the NFC West.
But if the Rams win out, they will win the NFC West.
And if the Seahawks win out, they will win the NFC West.
This is how it plays out:
How the Rams win the NFC West (Looking Better Than Ever)
By beating the 49ers on Thursday night, the Rams really put the pressure on Seattle to make no slip-ups in their next three weeks. That’s a tall order for the Seahawks, as they are hitting their most difficult stretch of the season: Packers and Vikings.
Then Seattle has to go to Chicago and play the Bears in late December on three days rest.
The Rams now get 10 days to prepare for the 3-10 Jets and if L.A. wins that game, they will guarantee themselves an opportunity to move ahead of the Seahawks in Week 18:
- The Rams have a win over the Seahawks already
- As long as the Rams enter Week 18 within a game of Seattle, then they can guarantee themselves moving ahead of the Seahawks by head-to-head in any 2-way tie
So it’s pretty simple: If the Seahawks lose to the Packers this Sunday night and the Rams beat the Jets in Week 16, they’re guaranteed a title shot by playing the Seahawks in Week 18 no matter what happens in Week 17. However, if the Cardinals win their next two games, then Week 17 becomes just as important as Week 18.
If the Rams win their last 3 games, they will win the NFC West with an 11-6 record. Period. The best the Seahawks could do is 11-6 and have two losses to the Rams.
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
How the Seahawks win the NFC West (Looking Worse)
Essentially, the Seahawks can’t have one mistake in the next three weeks or they at best will have to beat the Rams in Week 18 to make the playoffs. Historically—and this goes back to Mike Holmgren vs. Mike Martz days—Seattle is terrible against the Rams whenever the Rams are good. It has never mattered how good the Seahawks are at the time: Whenever the Rams are good, they beat the Seahawks and especially in playoff-type games.
If the Seahawks don’t enter Week 18 with more than a one-game advantage on the Rams, then they have to play their Achilles heel for the right to win the division. (Unless the Cardinals are still alive, which we will get to next.)
But being perfect in the next three games will be challenging for Seattle:
- The Seahawks play the 9-4 Packers and the 11-2 Vikings
- The Seahawks have only beaten one team with a winning record: The Broncos in Week 1, when Bo Nix was making his NFL debut
- The Seahawks would now have to beat two teams that are better than any team they’ve defeated all season long
If the Seahawks go 2-1 in the next three games, they will be 10-6 going into the finale. As long as the Rams are 9-7 going into the finale, they have earned the right to play for the title. (Which means that Rams-Seahawks will most likely be the Sunday Night Football game in Week 18. The only other contender, Lions-Vikings, would require the Vikings to catch the Lions first.)
So if the Seahawks don’t go 3-0, they can’t guarantee themselves any shot of winning the division without having to beat the Rams. That means Seattle actually has to go 4-0 to win the division unless L.A. collapses in these next two games.
Despite having a lead in the division right now, the Seahawks are under immense pressure to play their best football of the season and they have not really been that good of a team at home lately.
How the Cardinals win the division (Yes, it’s possible)
The only remaining game on Arizona’s schedule that would be an upset is if they beat the Rams in Week 17. The Cardinals beat the Rams 41-10 this season.
- Week 15: Cardinals vs 3-10 Patriots
- Week 16: Cardinals at 3-10 Panthers
- Week 17: Cardinals at 8-6 Rams
- Week 18: Cardinals vs 6-8 49ers
I don’t know if you noticed or not, but the 49ers are quitting on the season. They won’t show up in Week 18, so if the Cardinals have something to play for then they’re going to be a lot more prepared for that game.
Which means that as long as Arizona doesn’t suffer an upset against two of the worst teams in the NFL, they’re basically playing the Rams in Week 17 for the right to play for the division title.
But why? What’s the tiebreaker?
- If the Cardinals win out, they will finish 10-7 with a 4-2 division record.
- If the Rams and Seahawks both finish 10-7, then tiebreaker isn’t a straightforward head-to-head record.
- If the Rams go 2-1 (loss to Arizona) they will finish 10-7 with a 3-3 division record.
- If the Seahawks go 2-2 (loss to Rams) they will finish 10-7 with a 3-3 division record.
The Cardinals will have gone 2-0 against the Rams, but 0-2 against the Seahawks.
The Seahawks will have gone 0-2 against the Ram, but 2-0 against the Cardinals.
The Rams will have gone 2-0 against the Seahawks, but 0-2 against the Cardinals.
That means that the tiebreaker would come down to division record:
- 10-7 Cardinals, 4-2 division
- 10-7 Rams, 3-3 division
- 10-7 Seahawks, 3-3 division
If the Cardinals win out, they’re guaranteed to win the division unless Seattle goes 4-0 or 3-1. The Rams couldn’t win the division of Arizona wins out because of what I just laid out. This would mean that the Rams lost to the Cardinals and would lose to them in either tiebreaker.
Who will win it?
The Rams didn’t even score a touchdown on Thursday, but they made a winning move by beating the 49ers. This is going to be a huge test for Seattle to prove that the can beat the Packers, Vikings, and Rams, while their Thursday night game in Chicago is no cake walk.
That kind of pressure on the current division leader could work to L.A.’s advantage. But the Cardinals can’t be taken lightly; despite their poor position right now, they have two games that they could win and then it’s just about how they play against the Rams.
Still, it seems like the Rams got the advantage tonight. They knocked out the 49ers and put themselves in position to do no worse than play Seattle for the NFC West title.
This is now the Rams division to lose.