Ranking every 1st round QB since 2021 (and why it’s painful)

If Rams draft a QB in the first round, they should proceed with caution

If the Los Angeles Rams are going to target a quarterback early in next year’s draft, as many people expect them to, the cautionary tales go back as far as when they were recruited as high school graduates to some of the NFL’s most recent first round picks. Not only could development be getting stunted in college over the past five years, but the league hasn’t done themselves any favors by using early first round picks on projects and passers who never learned how to read a defense.

Of the nine quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 2021 and 2023, five of them are already on their third teams.

Before the Rams go into the 2026 draft with two first round picks, gung-ho to find Matthew Stafford’s successor, it’s important to look back at what recent history has taught us about modern day first round quarterbacks. While the 2024 rookie class offers reasons for optimism, they have to walk over a trail of massive busts to complete the journey that will make teams feel confident again.

Think of it like the future of the box office: You may feel good about the last new movie you saw in theaters compared to some of the schlock we had to put up with in 2021, but the U.S. still has 5,700 fewer screens than they did before the pandemic.

This is a ranking of the nine QBs drafted in the first round from 2021-2023 and a reminder of what’s been lost.

(I won’t include the 2024 class because they haven’t had enough time in the NFL yet, but I’ll share a rough, too-early ranking at the end of the article. If I was including 2024, then Jayden Daniels would be ranked first on this list. Maybe the 2024 class is hope for the future because the three years before it indicate an extremely dark past.)

1. C.J. Stroud, Texans

The Texans won 11 games between 2020-2022, so just the fact that Houston has gone 19-13 and won a playoff game in both seasons with Stroud is enough reason to believe they have a legitimate franchise quarterback. Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game and interception rate as a rookie, but perhaps more importantly quieted the skeptics who were worried that he can’t improvise when a play breaks down.

That being said, the absolute best quarterback on this list was downright below average in year two, literally ranking below-average in virtually every passing metric, including completion rate, touchdowns, adjusted net yards per attempt, sack percentage, and passer rating.

Stroud’s TD% dipped from 4.6 to 3.8, while his INT% more than doubled from 1% to 2.3%.

People who are fans of Stroud may push back on sharing these findings and say that his offensive coordinator (fired) was bad and his supporting cast was even worse. That’s fine, I have absolutely no skin in the game, I’m simply sharing facts of what happened.

There are QBs who win MVP in their second season (Lamar Jackson) and QBs who make the Super Bowl (Joe Burrow), but Stroud’s second year was worse than his first. That’s not an opinion.

The Texans responded to last season by hiring Nick Caley (off of the Rams staff) to be the new OC and overloading on new weapons for Stroud. The Rams will be the first team to get a taste of those changes in Week 1.

It seems weird to think people would have to defend Stroud on a list that ranks him number one overall, but that is the state of these recent first round quarterbacks.

2. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Lawrence’s career-start was the opposite of Stroud’s experience:

• Rookie season: 3-14, 12 TD/17 INT, 6 Y/A, 71.9 passer rating, 39.1 QBR, 59.6% completions
• Year 2: 9-8, 25 TD/8 INT, 7 Y/A, 95.2 rating, 56.1 QBR, 66.3% completions

As you might expect, the Jaguars had a coaching change between years one and two, going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson, but also adding receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as tight end Evan Engram.

The moves worked, but only for a couple of seasons and only “kinda”.

It was one step forward, two step backwards for Lawrence in 2023 and 2024, with an interceptions and accuracy problem that has never actually gone away. By hiring Liam Coen to replace Pederson this offseason, that now makes two-of-two for QBs on this list who are now being coordinated by someone who used to work for Sean McVay.

The Jaguars are committed to Lawrence by way of the $275 million contract that they gave him in 2024 despite Lawrence showing no real improvement in year three, and if anything playing worse than he did in 2023.

Lawrence ranked 35th in the NFL in completion percentage (60.6%) and the only thing that stopped him from hitting the basement entirely was Anthony Richardson’s 47.7%. (We’ll get to him later.)

He was below-average in almost every category and yet surprisingly some of his numbers (like Net Yards/Attempt and QBR) were actually BETTER than C.J. Stroud’s.

Guessing who will be better between the two AFC South QBs this season is a coinflip and it is perhaps not a coincidence that the top two success stories on this list also both play in one of the NFL’s worst divisions.

3. Bryce Young, Panthers

A quarterback who I can COMFORTABLY rank third on this list of recent first round quarterbacks, was also the worst starting quarterback in the NFL in 2023 (by a significant margin):

• 2-14 record as a starter
• 32nd in passer rating
• 32nd in yards per game
• 31st in TD%
• 31st in completion percentage
• 32nd in adjusted net yards per attempt (by a HUGE margin)
• 31st in success rate
• Second-most sacked QB in the league (behind Sam Howell)

By the way, the three-worst QBs of 2023 are all on this list, while Justin Fields and Kenny Pickett are close behind, and Richardson may have been the worst but he didn’t play enough snaps to qualify.

But given a second year with HC/OC Dave Canales and an improved offensive line, plus top-10 pick Tetairoa McMillan, Young might actually be first on this list by 2026.

4. Justin Fields, Jets (Bears, Steelers)

Going into his fifth season, Fields has the following career numbers spread across two teams, three head coaches, and three offensive coordinators in four years:

• 44 starts (14-30 record)
• 61.1% completions
• 45 TD
• 31 INT
• 151 sacks taken
• 2,509 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns

As a passer, Fields has averaged one touchdown per start and almost one interception per start. But the only reason Fields doesn’t average more than one interception per start is that he is not capable of passing that many times in a game. He only averages about 15 completions per game.

Being sacked as many times as he was in Chicago is not just damning of the offensive line, it’s also because Fields holds onto the ball for far too long, usually because he can’t see wide open receivers.

Remarkably, in spite of this, the Jets have handed Fields the starting job under new head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, who comes off of the Ben Johnson tree.

Without any competition in New York (backup is Tyrod Taylor), Fields gets a fourth chance to prove himself. But there is also the possibility that the Jets saw what’s in front of them (a roster that will not make the playoffs in the AFC) and decided to start playing for next year’s draft.

5. Mac Jones, 49ers (Patriots, Jaguars)

It is before we reach the midpoint of this list that we hit quarterbacks who are unlikely to ever be named starters again, with the exception of maybe one. And it ain’t Mac Jones.

Despite outplaying Fields and every other QB in his class as a rookie starter on the Patriots, Jones has since turned into the next Blake Bortles. He has made 32 starts in the past three years and thrown 32 touchdowns against 31 interceptions. He answers the age old question, “What if Justin Fields couldn’t run?”

Jones has landed ass backwards into the ideal situation for a bust (just ask Sam Darnold) after Kyle Shanahan hired him to backup Brock Purdy. The odds of Purdy missing at least one game this season are fairly high, but Jones is no Darnold.

Going back to the hot debate topic of 2021 — “Should the 49ers draft Mac Jones or Justin Fields or Trey Lance?” — it turns out the real answer was:

Penei Sewell.

(Can you believe that the 49ers traded three first round picks in the 2021 draft and they passed on Sewell, Ja’Marr Chase, Patrick Surtain and Micah Parsons?! They could have had Parsons without even making a trade!)

6. Kenny Pickett, Browns (Steelers, Eagles)

There are 4 reasons why Pickett might start for the Browns in Week 1:

• Joe Flacco
• Dillon Gabriel
• Shedeur Sanders
• Deshaun Watson

If not for those four reasons, nobody would ever consider for a moment that Pickett could be a Week 1 starter.

The Steelers essentially drafted Pickett in the first round in 2022 (probably the worst QB class of this century and the only reason it wouldn’t be is because Purdy was one pick away from not being drafted at all) because the outgoing GM was determined to take a quarterback before he retired. And he completely screwed his old team by doing it.

Pickett has thrown 15 touchdowns in 30 career games. AND THERE ARE STILL THREE QUARTERBACKS LEFT ON THIS LIST!

7. Zach Wilson, Dolphins (Jets, Broncos)

Wilson could be the biggest bust of the last 10 years but part of what feeds into that narrative is the fact that most of us never questioned if the Jets were making a bad decision. The 2021 draft had the first two picks set in stone from the day the season ended:

• The Jaguars would take Lawrence
• The Jets would take Wilson

The only semi-question was whether or not the the Jaguars would take Wilson or if the Jets would trade the pick and give Darnold one more year. Zach Wilson was considered a near-lock to become a quality NFL starter, which in hindsight just seems insane because he went to the Jets.

But despite being one of the worst starters we’ve seen recently, I can’t put Wilson below the last two quarterbacks on this list. Wilson was abysmally bad and never even saw the field for Sean Payton as Denver’s QB3 in 2024, but there are actually quarterbacks worse than Zach Wilson. One of them might even start this season!

8. Anthony Richardson, Colts

I don’t want to hear that Richardson is better than Zach Wilson because through two seasons Richardson is the least-accurate passer in the Super Bowl era. And he went fourth overall! And he wasn’t even good during his limited one season as a starter in college!

Until Richardson can actually win a job out of camp and hold it for longer than a couple of months without tapping out, he’s not better than a quarterback who sucks but kind of looks like a quarterback sometimes.

Going back to the year Richardson was born (2002), the only QBs with a lower completion% on at least 200 attempts are Mike McMahon in 2005 and Tim Tebow in 2011.

And between 1989-2001, the only QBs with a lower completion percentage are Akili Smith, Craig Whelihan, and Sten Gelbaugh.

This is without mentioning yet that through 15 starts, Richardson has 11 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 12 fumbles, and has suffered five separate injuries in less than two years.

The Colts will almost certainly choose Daniel Jones over Richardson and there’s a possibility that sixth round pick Riley Leonard could sneak into the two spot. Giving the job back to Richardson after proving that every single receiver on the team was far worse when he was starting than when it was Joe Flacco last year — and he hasn’t even been healthy enough to develop this offseason — would be the end of Shane Steichen’s career in Indianapolis.

9. Trey Lance, Chargers (49ers, Cowboys)

It’s a miracle that Lance is on an NFL team right now. He’s thrown 143 passes in four years (71 of those came as a rookie) and famously the 49ers drafted Lance despite him not playing in 2020 (aside from one game) and not playing in 2018. In the last seven years, 98% of Trey Lance’s career production was the 2019 season at NORTH DAKOTA STATE.

Look, the NFL draft always goes through ebbs and flows at the quarterback position. We’ve always had guys like Akili Smith and Ryan Leaf.

But in the past those busts were surrounded by booms: Peyton Manning. Donovan McNabb.

Where are the booms from 2021 to 2023? Or did they all go bust?

For now, it looks like the booms are back again from 2024, or at least one of them (out of five) seems to be ahead of schedule.

2024 NFL Draft

This is a rough, too-soon ranking based on how they played as rookies and how likely they are to improve in the future:

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Drake Maye, Patriots

Bo Nix, Broncos

Caleb Williams, Bears

Michael Penix, Falcons

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings

Nix is the hardest to rank because although he had a successful rookie season, the all-or-nothing nature of Denver’s passing game to either check down or launch a bomb isn’t likely to be repeatable long-term. So he’s below Maye (for me, maybe not for you) and above Williams, who probably still has a brighter future than Nix but was only really good at one thing last season: Avoiding interceptions.

Caleb Williams only threw one interception in the last 11 games, but the Bears were also the lowest-scoring team in the NFL in that time and lost 10 straight prior to being gifted a Week 18 win by the Packers.

But ultimately we could find out that Williams is the best QB in this class. Or Penix. Or McCarthy. Or Maye. The 2024 NFL first round might produce three long-term starters or more.

Going into training camp this month, all are starting quarterbacks and the only thing sort of resembling a competition is just the fact that McCarthy missed all of last season with a knee injury. But since Howell is his backup, there’s virtually no chance of Kevin O’Connell making a drastic change.

All that being said, McCarthy and Penix have everything to prove, while Williams was really bad and Maye was super inconsistent. Daniels did some things we didn’t expect and in some cases never saw before, while Nix was better than most predictions. It’s not hard to see a world where this class has four quarterbacks better than the top-four quarterbacks in the three drafts before them.

However, given those classes, it’s also not easy to predict that most of them will be just fine.

Perhaps Sean McVay can take solace in the fact that if he’s given a first round quarterback to develop, if their futures are anything like Lawrence and Stroud then he knows that the Rams will need a Sean McVay disciple to replace him. Who better than Sean McVay?