“Load the box and make sure No. 26 has to work really hard for his yards,” says Bleeding Green Nation of slowing Barkley
Hollywood is nothing but sequels anymore, so it’s only fitting that NFL fans will be treated to another with the L.A. Rams facing the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round. Philadelphia literally ran LA off their home field in Week 12 during a 37-20 obliteration on Sunday Night Football.
I had the pleasure of interviewing Brandon Lee Gowton from Bleeding Green Nation to get his thoughts on how to slow down Saquon Barkley (if it’s even possible), Philly’s lackluster passing offense and more in this week’s Q&A:
Q – The Rams are haunted by the memory of Saquon Barkley running over them following a franchise-record 255-yard performance. How could LA attempt to corral Barkley to prevent the All-Pro from shredding their defense for the second time this season?
A – Hey, don’t forget the additional 47 receiving yards he had for 302 total yards from scrimmage!
The Rams’ run defense has seemingly improved since Week 12; LA is allowing 100.5 rushing yards per game since then (excluding the regular season finale when starters were resting). Of course, the running backs they faced during that stretch pale in comparison to Barkley.
If I’m the Rams, I’m totally selling out to stop the run. The Eagles are clearly employing a conservative offensive approach where they pound the rock and limit Jalen Hurts’ passing attempts. Stopping Barkley is easier said than done, even if the Rams dedicate extra resources to run defense. And there’s always the possibility that Hurts gets hot while throwing to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
But the Rams should be able to live with losing to the Eagles if Philly’s passing game plays well. Losing because Barkley goes wild again should be much more difficult to reconcile. Load the box and make sure No. 26 has to work really hard for his yards. Win the battle in the trenches and make anybody but Barkley beat you.
Q – The offense runs through Barkley which is a great thing given all the struggles in the passing game lately. Despite Philly’s issues throwing the ball, the Eagles are 4-1 when they have less than 125 passing yards. Besides Jalen Hurts missing time with a concussion, why has Philadelphia struggled so much in the passing game and how does offensive coordinator Kellen Moore get his top playmakers like A.J. Brown more involved?
A – The Eagles’ passing game struggles have been a topic of conversation for a good portion of the season. The big question is: who’s to blame?
It’s not like talent is the issue. The Eagles arguably have the best offensive line in the NFL. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combine to form one of the league’s best wide receiver duos. Dallas Goedert has struggled to stay healthy at times but he’s a good contributor, as evidenced by his success against the Green Bay Packers. Barkley is obviously phenomenal and will likely be Offensive Player of the Year.
So, is it Hurts? Is it coaching/scheme?
It sure seems to be a combination of those two things.
BGN’s Jonny Page posted a really insightful film review from the Packers game that touched on the Eagles’ passing game struggles. His big takeaways:
* The Eagles’ playing risk-averse football is having an impact on the passing game.
* Jalen Hurts did not play particularly well in this one.
* Jalen Hurts did not get a lot of help from the offensive design. Some of the 3rd down stuff was appalling.
* The Eagles’ philosophy is that the above does not matter that much right now. This is a team that arguably has the best defense and best running game in the NFL. They believe they will win games if they do not turn the football over.
Can’t say I disagree with him.
As for the A.J. Brown portion of your question, I do think there will be a big effort to get him going on Sunday.
Brown has proven to be a tough cover for the Rams in their past two meetings. Earlier this season, Brown caught six of his seven targets for 109 yards (18.2 average) and one touchdown. Back in 2023, Brown caught six of his eight targets for 127 yards (21.2).
Another thing to consider is that the A.J. Brown overcorrection game appears to be a very real thing. Sometimes the squeaky wheel gets the grease.
A few examples:
Week 2 in 2023: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 29 yardsWeek 3 in 2024: 14 targets, 9 receptions, 131 yards
Week 9 in 2024: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 36 yardsWeek 10 in 2024: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 109 yards
Week 14 in 2024: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 43 yardsWeek 15 in 2024: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD
Last weekend, Brown was only targeted three times for one catch that resulted in 10 yards. The Eagles will likely be looking to force-feed him targets early and often in this game.
Q – Rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell was a slam dunk pick by Howie Roseman in last year’s draft, and even got his first career interception in Sunday’s win over the Packers. What makes Mitchell so valuable in Vic Fangio’s defense?
A – Q is just so sticky in coverage. Since the Eagles returned from their bye in Week 6, Mitchell has allowed just 0.8 yards per coverage snap. That’s the sixth-fewest among NFL cornerbacks during that span, according to NFL Pro.
Mitchell has a great combination of size and speed. Measuring in at 6’ 0⅛”, 195 pounds, he runs the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds (95th percentile, per Mockdraftable). He also clearly has a knack for getting his hand on the ball with 13 passes defensed in 17 games played. And this despite teams often not targeting Mitchell. Among 78 NFL cornerbacks who logged at least 385 coverage snaps, only 10 players had more coverage snaps per target (per Pro Football Focus).
Mitchell also seems to have the right mentality for his position. Though he comes across as soft-spoken off the field, he’s not afraid to get fiery on the field and talk trash to opposing wide receivers. He’s very competitive.
Though Mitchell has mostly been great, you’d probably be interested to know that his performance against the Rams in Week 12 wasn’t one of his best. Another stat from NFL Pro:
“Quinyon Mitchell allowed 6 receptions for 75 yards as the nearest defender in coverage against the Rams in Week 12, both his most allowed in a single game this season.”
Some of that production came in garbage time when the Eagles pulled other defensive starters. Still, the Rams might be more willing to test Mitchell than other teams have been.
Q – For the second time under head coach Nick Sirianni, the Eagles have finished with a 14-win campaign. How does this season’s team compare to the 2022 squad that advanced to the Super Bowl?
A – It’s not quite as simple as this but, in broad strokes, the 2022 Eagles are like the inverse of the 2024 Eagles.
In 2022, the offense was elite and the defense was propped up by an easy schedule.
In 2024, the defense is elite and the offense has been propped up by an easy schedule.
This year’s team has a formula that’s worked really well for them: run the ball, limit turnovers, dominate on defense. They’ve been able to beat multiple playoff teams (LA, Baltimore, Green Bay, Washington) with this recipe.
The question is: can they win the Super Bowl like this? I do think it’s possible. The defense is THAT good and Barkley might be unstoppable. But it also seems possible that the passing game limitations could prevent the Eagles from lifting another Vince Lombardi Trophy.
To be clear, I don’t think Hurts and the passing game are totally incapable of playing well. We once saw Hurts outplay Patrick Mahomes on the biggest stage. We saw Hurts mix in some pretty strong passing performances earlier this season (see: games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh).
If Hurts gets going, the Eagles could be the toughest remaining team to beat. It could happen. But it’s hard to merely assume it will.
Q – Philadelphia is a 6.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. What is your prediction for Sunday’s game and what must the Eagles do to advance to the NFC Championship for the second time in three seasons?
A – Since Matthew Stafford joined the team in 2021, the Rams are 5-14 straight up as road underdogs. Only nine teams have a worse winning percentage during that span. The Rams are 8-8-3 against the spread in those games.
Since Nick Sirianni was hired in 2021, the Eagles have the league’s best winning percentage as home favorites with a 26-4 record. They also have the second-best cover percentage by going 18-10-2 against the spread.
I have respect for the Rams. Perhaps more than most Eagles fans? According to BGN polling, I was among those in the minority that preferred the Eagles to face the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round. The Rams can win if they bring their A-game, Matthew Stafford gets red-hot, and the Rams’ pass rush forces Hurts into some turnovers.
But I think an Eagles win is the most likely scenario. I’ll believe the Rams can stop Barkley when I see it happen. And for as good as LA’s offense can be, I’m not betting against this Eagles defense right now (though they could certainly be worse with Nakobe Dean injured).
Run the ball, target A.J. Brown often, don’t turn the ball over, play good defense. That formula should work.
Eagles win, 27-18.