Rams must win the NFC West to make the playoffs
For the first time this season, the Los Angeles Rams are in first place in the NFC West. If things go their way, they could clinch the division as early as next week. However, while the NFC West crown is close, the job is not done yet. As easily as the Rams could win the division, they very well could lose it.
After starting the season 1-4, the Rams have once again made a late surge to the postseason. With that said, last year the Rams snuck into the postseason as a wild card team, earning the six seed. Making the playoffs may not be as simple this year with three teams in the NFC North already at 10 wins and the Washington Commanders in control of the seventh seed. The only path to the postseason for the Rams remains by winning the division. According to the New York times playoff simulator, there is a less than one percent chance that the Rams can earn the seven seed.
In a sense, it’s great that the Rams have dug themselves out of another hole from early in the season in back-to-back years. However, while the Rams started 3-6 last year, two of those losses were to AFC teams. Those losses don’t necessarily have an impact on playoff tiebreakers. That’s not the case this year.
The Rams started 1-4, but three of those losses came to the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Green Bay Packers. Following the bye week, the Rams lost to the Philadelphia Eagles. Outside of the NFC West, the Rams are 2-4 in inter-conference games. Those results come into play this time of the year, especially with the NFC being such a tight race.
If the Rams are to sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team, they would be competing with the Washington Commanders for the final playoff spot. However, because of their record in the NFC, the Rams would have to hope for a late-season collapse by the Commanders. Their late win over the Saints in Week 15 did not help with that.
Assuming the Rams and Commanders both end up at 10-7, with the Rams losing to the Cardinals and Seahawks, Los Angeles would drop out of the postseason.
The tiebreaker would be common games where the Commanders beat the Bears off of a Hail Mary on the final play and also defeated the Saints. In this scenario, it would be Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary throw over the Bears that would be the difference. The Rams can technically finish 10-7 along with the Packers, but would lose that tiebreaker as well due to the direct head-to-head.
It’s a similar result if the Rams were to finish in a three-way tie at 9-8 with the Commanders and Falcons. In this scenario, the Falcons would get the seventh seed as they would have a win over the Commanders and have a better conference record.
Due to the early season struggles, the Rams essentially have to win the NFC West if they are to make the playoffs. While that is a good thing as it means a home playoff game at SoFi Stadium, it also means that there is not an alternative path.
Following the Seahawks loss to the Packers on Sunday Night Football, the Rams are in firm control of the NFC West. If they take care of business, they will win the division for the first time since 2021 when they won the Super Bowl. In the case that the Rams win out, there is still a chance at the three seed as well. The three seed could give the Rams a second home playoff game if there is just one upset in the wild card round.
At the end of the day, the Rams are in a good spot heading into the final three weeks of the season. After being counted out early, the Rams are once again a team that nobody wants to play. Despite a 1-4 start, they may be better positioned than they were last year to make a potential run. However, they still need to finish the job and win the division.