“He’s seeing the entire field, and reading defenses in ways he didn’t necessarily do before,” says Buffalo Rumblings of Allen
The Los Angeles Rams have a chance to get over .500 for the first time all year, but must do it against a Super Bowl contender in the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. Buffalo won the last meeting between the teams in the 2022 NFL season opener, a game that we must never speak of again.
The Bills have surpassed all realistic offseason expectations thanks to a Herculean effort from superstar Josh Allen. This week, I spoke with Matt Byham from SB Nation’s Bills site Buffalo Rumblings to learn more about how Allen has adapted without Stefon Diggs, Joe Brady’s head coaching prospects and whether the team can give the Chiefs a run for their money.
Q – What else can you say about Josh Allen? Against the 49ers in Week 13, he became the first quarterback with a passing, rushing AND receiving touchdown in the same game. What changes have you noticed in Allen with Stefon Diggs no longer in Buffalo and where would you rank the star QB in the MVP race?
A – It’s been nine months but I could probably still write 3,000 words on Stefon Diggs. It’s been a relief no longer having to cover Diggs’ drama — well, at least that had become his norm in the final year and a half at One Bills Drive. It’s pretty clear that his headspace was ruining a fair number of things in the locker room. The GQ feature on Diggs did even less to warm the cockles of Bills Mafia.
Before, Allen and Diggs were akin to Rey and Ben Solo — perfectly matched but headed for certain disaster as two halves of a fatally flawed whole. They both obviously want to win, but Diggs didn’t appear content doing so unless he was a featured star in the outcome. It’s pretty evident that there was a bit of a leadership struggle between the two, as well.
Now, Allen has been tasked with taking those reigns and he’s done so with aplomb. This is Allen’s team, much the same as we’ve seen with the greats such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and now Patrick Mahomes.
There’s been plenty of debate about this year’s NFL MVP race. Sure, Allen’s numbers are nowhere near as massive as in past seasons, but he’s never been more efficient and precise with his passes. He’s seeing the entire field, and reading defenses in ways he didn’t necessarily do before. Why? Before, the move was always “get the ball to Diggs, even when he’s covered.” The problem became that Diggs’ catch rate began to plummet (never mind mentioning the lack of efficiency from WR2 Gabe Davis), and there were very little yards after catch/contact.
As for the 2024 receivers room? Go ahead and try to name the Bills’ starting group. Even though fantasy football makes learning NFL rosters easier, there’s hardly a household name on the team — even considering wide receiver Amari Cooper, who is a complete 180 in personality from Diggs. The move this offseason was to diversify the receivers while ensuring they all shared one trait: YAC ability.
Concerning MVP: The voters made things messy last season when they selected Lamar Jackson. They essentially stated that wins are a QB stat, and that a few performances in premiere spots mattered more than how much the player impacted the team overall. Now this season, many seem unwilling to hear the same conversation where Allen’s name supplants Jackson.
Right now I feel Allen’s deserving of the honor simply because of what he’s done and what he means to the team. In his career, there might be three games where Allen’s play can be pinned on a loss. Three, in seven seasons.
Subtract Josh Allen from Buffalo’s roster and the team might win 4-5 games if they’re lucky. Now do the same with Lamar Jackson, then again with Derrick Henry, and even Saquon Barkley. This is not to take away from any of their seasons — especially Jackson’s Madden-esque season. However, if QB wins is a stat, then Jackson absolutely needs to be saddled with a less-than-MVP-worthy 8-5 record.
The Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles have loaded rosters and likely don’t see a ton of regression losing them (Jackson or Henry — not both at the same time, of course). Even without Barkley, the Eagles still have Jalen Hurts running in 12-plus touchdowns. Consider Jared Goff, who’s been both really bad and really good. Goff’s weaknesses are held up by a loaded roster, such that he can toss five interceptions and still walk off the field victorious over the Houston Texans. And yes, Goff has played lights-out often in 2024, especially at home.
League MVP should come down to which player means the most to their team’s success — not who has the best fantasy stats. Otherwise, why isn’t Joe Burrow the odds-on-favorite?
Back to Allen’s numbers, he’s thrown 20 touchdowns to just five interceptions, and has another six rushing TDs. Even if he’s not putting up 400 yards and four touchdowns every week, Allen’s presence almost always makes everyone around him better.
Not to be dismissive of the Rams, but I have a feeling how Allen performs against the Detroit Lions in a 4:25 p.m. EST slot next week will weigh heavily with MVP voters, fair or not. Regardless, he absolutely deserves the attention he’s getting so far.
Q – Part of the Bills’ success this season can be attributed to offensive coordinator Joe Brady who could very well earn a head coaching opportunity this offseason. How has Brady transformed the offense after Ken Dorsey was fired last season?
A – Joe Brady is a great dude and players adore him. That said, I believe it’s better to pump the brakes a bit on his head-coaching candidacy. If I were hiring for the role, I’d want to see a loaded resume of success. How does Brady respond in 2025 when teams have plenty of film on his scheme? Has he shown an ability adapt and evolve, and fully utilize key skill players? What about the offense’s tendency to start slow? That’s good and well when Josh Allen’s directing traffic, but does it work with someone like Caleb Williams, Derek Carr, or whomever the Jets wrongly decide to trot out at QB?
Even considering other teams that may move on from current head coaches, is Brady the right guy for Jerry’s World, and can he make proper lobster thermidor out of the New England’s current canned situation?
You have to have the right people in-house. Right? That’s a testament to the One Bills Drive’s front office, led by general manager Brandon Beane — as well head coach Sean McDermott and the genuine culture he’s instilled. I know Brady’s going to get plenty of interviews because you don’t lose the likes of Stefon Diggs and increase scoring production without other teams noticing. But other teams don’t have Josh Allen, and he won’t leave with Joe Brady. Furthermore, what is team “x’s” offensive line situation?
All one need do is look at what happened with Brian Daboll and the New York Giants. Daboll was the hot offensive coordinator after a tenure working with Josh Allen. Daniel Jones is very much not Josh Allen. Everyone thought Daboll was a quarterback whisperer who made Allen into the player he is today, but the truth is that Allen has always been that player.
Okay, okay… how has Brady transformed the roster? Brady’s doing some really interesting thing with conceptual football that requires players knowing concepts and overall functions of every play instead of just their 1/11th. It’s been said that Brady prefers positionless offensive football, where a receiver can be both wide, or in the slot on any given down. The target distribution is vastly different, both because of necessity and design. It wasn’t going to work having a guy like Diggs demand 65% or more of the target share because Brady wants to keep defenses guessing where the ball is headed. Through 12 games in 2024, the Bills’ target share is thus:
WR targets: 196 (57.5%)
RB targets: 57 (16.7%)
TE targets: 88 (25.8%)
Now compare those numbers to Buffalo’s 2023 regular-season target figures (Dorsey 10 games / Brady 7):
WR targets: 250 (61%)
RB targets: 65 (15.9%)
TE targets: 95 (23.2%)
What stands out most is the drop in wide receiver targets. Last season, even though Brady had seven games and a postseason to call the offense, he was running Dorsey’s system. Brady also expects his guys to leave their egos at the door. Since early in the offseason, their mantra have been that “everybody eats.” That’s true only if people don’t get upset when they don’t eat, or when their plate is identical to their peers.
Q – Several media outlets predicted a rough year for the Bills given all the departures this offseason. Despite the changes made across the roster, Buffalo clinched its franchise-record fifth consecutive AFC East title with five games remaining. How have the Bills seemingly defied expectations in 2024 and what is your confidence level in this team making a deep playoff run?
A – Those expectations from prominent talking heads sure sound silly now, don’t they? What those projections looked past was a Jets team that had proven nothing to anyone and now trying to do so with a washed-up misanthropic malcontent at QB, and a Dolphins team that had yet to prove capable of surpassing the Bills. Anyone paying attention could see how Aaron Rodgers was about to destroy the Jets from all angles — yet some were convinced this was their Super Bowl season.
The national media told everyone that the Bills were in a reset season, having seen their Super Bowl window close after losing so many veteran starters, and seven team captains. It just might be that Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are good at their jobs, and know what’s best for the roster. Again, there’s also Allen — and with Josh Allen there is no reset season.
Losing the players they did was necessary to refining the roster. Sure Mitch Morse was still a standout player at center, but they had to do what was necessary to get cap compliant and that meant moving on from big names and expensive contracts.
So, perhaps strangely, I’ve never been more confident. The defense struggles to contain run games between the 20s, but really clamp down in the red zone. They’ve scored 30-plus points in nine of 12 games (all wins) including the last seven weeks; beaten teams by two scores or more in seven games; and many weeks Josh Allen takes a seat early in the fourth quarter.
Things just feel different this season, mostly due to the team’s personality, demeanor, and camaraderie. This season feels like house money right now. I won’t deny that a weak AFC East helps the cause. Crazy as it sounds, the Bills have yet to play Patriots but the AFC East is theirs.
Sure, the Super Bowl albatross will never go away until the franchise wins its first title. It may not leave even then. Losing four in a row is the first thing anyone recalls about the Bills’ legacy. Maybe this season is different. Even if it isn’t, this team sure is fun to cheer on.
Q – Who is an underrated player on offense that Rams fans should keep an eye on in Week 14? What about on defense?
A – For sure it’s journeyman wide receiver Mack Hollins. Everything about the guy is awesome. He was miscast early in the season while trying to find a moon-ball threat to replace Davis, but he’s become a real red zone threat as a favorite of Allen’s when looking for six. You’re likely to hear more about Hollins’ unconventional approach to life, which includes walking barefoot almost everywhere all the time (including to home games), to eating without utensils, his thorough distrust of house cats, avoiding elevators at all cost, his Adonas physique and hair and more.
One look at Hollins’ stats with Buffalo and you’ll learn that he’s made for the NFL. He has just 19 receptions for 231 yards, but he shares the team lead in touchdowns with four. Hollins fits in well with the Bills and Brady’s scheme as someone who isn’t worried about stats or how he contributes. He just wants to help his team win however needed.
On defense, pay attention to cornerback Christian Benford. He’s still a relatively obscure name in the cornerback realm, but he’s played shutdown football this season. Correction: He’s played All-Pro football in 2024.
Benford was originally a sixth-round draft pick out of small-school Villanova in 2022. The Bills actually selected cornerback Kaiir Elam in Round 1 that year, but it’s Benford who’s played like the first-round pick while Elam struggles to find snaps outside of special teams. Benford doesn’t have elite combine-worthy measurables, but he plays fast in pads as an intelligent, stingy, and crafty zone-cover defender.
It’s sometimes difficult to discuss a cornerback’s success in numbers alone, but this chart and this one should fill in nicely. He’s keeping come pretty talented company this season.
Q – FanDuel Sportsbook has the Bills as a 4.5-point favorite at SoFi Stadium this week. What are the keys to a Buffalo win to help keep pace with Kansas City in the AFC?
A – In reference to an earlier discussion, I feel like 30 is a key number for the Bills. If they score 30 or more points, they’ve proven unbeatable this season. Unlike teams that often score tons of points in garbage time while playing against prevent defenses, Buffalo’s hanging tons of points on teams and demanding they play catch up.
Apart from that, it’s playing sound, fundamental football. Pay attention to the gap integrity on defense. The Bills are good at it, and rarely put themselves in position to repeatedly fail. Buffalo cannot allow LA to have a huge game on offense, as that would be against their middle-of-the-pack season rankings.
Even though the Rams’ have a talented defensive front seven, I expect Brady to attack them with the run game early and often in hopes of setting up Allen and the passing game. Since the Rams struggle to shorten opponents’ drive, it makes sense for the Bills to take a page or two out of the Chiefs’ offensive play book.
Of course, there’s also turnovers. If Allen continues to play mistake-free football, it’s going to prove difficult to beat Buffalo. Above all else, even in winning, the goal needs to be leaving LA as healthy as possible.