Why playing Ahkello Witherspoon over Cobie Durant is ill-advised
It was surprising to see veteran Ahkello Witherspoon starting over a healthy Cobie Durant last week versus the New York Jets. Durant suffered a bruised lung three weeks ago, missing the Thursday Night Football game against the San Francisco 49ers. He was cleared by team doctors ahead of the game in New York.
Witherspoon played well in Durant’s absence against the 49ers, which apparently earned him the starting nod the following week. However—when you take each player’s body of work together—Durant is clearly the better player.
Are the Los Angeles Rams starting the wrong corner opposite Darious Williams?
Cobie Durant’s 2024 season:
30 catches on 52 targets (57.7% completion) for 338 yards (103 YAC), 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 PBU’s, 75.6 passer rating allowed
Durant has played 424 passing snaps for the Rams this year. He’s been flagged for a single coverage penalty and is allowing a reception every 13.1 snaps on average according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).
On Sunday against the @BuffaloBills, @RamsNFL CB Cobie Durant was targeted seven times. Six targets were from Josh Allen to Amari Cooper. The overall result? Two catches for 15 yards. pic.twitter.com/UtJR4BpjS9
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 10, 2024
Ahkello Witherspoon’s 2024 season:
25 catches on 37 targets (67.6% completion) for 315 yards (115 YAC), no TD’s or INT’s, 5 PBU’s, 102.9 passer rating allowed
Witherspoon has played 255 snaps versus the pass, which is 169 less than Durant. He’s drawn four penalty flags and is allowing a reception every 9.3 snaps on average.
Rams CB Ahkello Witherspoon gave up a few plays in the run game and missed a few tackles.
However, this was a huge play on 4th down. He’s 1-on-1 with Davante Adams. Runs stride for stride. Plays through the hands. Gets the PBU. pic.twitter.com/kYOHym2M2E
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) December 24, 2024
Durant is clearly the more productive player
Both corners have allowed roughly the same amount of yardage in coverage despite Durant playing 66% more passing snaps. Durant is forcing incomplete passes at a higher frequency (57.7% completion versus Witherspoon’s 67.6%).
On average, it takes Durant four plays longer to allow a reception as opposed to Witherspoon. If you assume the opposing quarterback will drop back 30 times per game, Durant would be on pace to allow 2.29 catches while Witherspoon would give up 3.23. That’s a roughly one additional reception allowed each week by replacing Durant with Witherspoon in the starting lineup. Both corners allow roughly 11.5 yards per catch, which extrapolates to an additional 195 yards over a 17 game season.
Sean McVay on the decision to go with Ahkello Witherspoon over Cobie Durant at corner yesterday and what he’s seen from Witherspoon recently: pic.twitter.com/L1rSPqrPel
— Wyatt Miller (@wymill07) December 23, 2024
There are no future benefits to starting Witherspoon
The Rams need long-term answers at corner.
Even if Williams returns for 2025 and continues to play at the same level, he likely won’t be around for much longer based on age and tenure alone. Witherspoon is a free agent after this season while Durant has a year left on his rookie deal. The Rams were hesitant to reunite with Witherspoon this offseason, and the veteran corner was still available after the start of the regular season. It wasn’t until after Tre White, who LA opted to sign in free agency, fell flat as a starter that they brought Witherspoon back.
It’s unlikely that Witherspoon will be back for 2025. There’s much more upside in finding out whether Durant has a future with this team, though I’d argue he’s evidently the better player today.
The Rams are making the wrong decision in starting Witherspoon over Durant, and they must correct that mistake as soon as Saturday when they take the field versus the Arizona Cardinals.