5-seed RAMS at 2-seed CHICAGO BEARS
When: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. PT
Where: Soldier Field (Chicago)
TV/Radio: NBC/Peacock/710 AM; 93.1 FM; 1330 AM (Spanish); Sirius 226, 228
Line: Rams by 3.5
Notable injury designations
Rams: QUESTIONABLE: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (back), DL Desjuan Johnson (illness).
Bears: QUESTIONABLE: WR Rome Odunze (foot), LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (back).
What’s at stake? A playoff win and a trip to the NFC championship game.
Who’s better? On paper, the Rams are the better team, particularly when it comes to talent on defense. But both team do the same things well — running the ball, pass protection and generating turnovers. And both teams are currently are struggling in the same areas — run defense, allowing big plays on defense and offensive consistency. The biggest difference is that the Rams play hot on offense to open games, while the Bears close out games strong.
Matchup to watch: Rams secondary vs. Bears pass catchers. In the last seven games, including the wild-card round win over the Panthers, the Rams defense is ninth in opponent success rate against dropbacks at 43.8%. But they are 18th in dropback estimated points added (EPA) in that same span at 0.094 per play. This means the secondary isn’t getting beaten often, but when it is, it is giving up big plays that move teams down the field for points. The Bears like taking shots downfield, ranking fifth with an average depth of target of 9.31 yards, and have a variety of pass catchers to stress a defense. Particularly with Ahkello Witherspoon on injured reserve, the Rams secondary will need to put together one of its best performances of the last two months for the Rams to win this game.
Rams win if: They are able to run the ball for over 150 yards and limit Chicago to less than 4 yards per carry. … They win the turnover battle. … They do not go back-to-back possessions without multiple first downs, staying consistent on offense and not stagnating in the middle of the game.
Fantasy sleeper: Rams RB Blake Corum. The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and are now seriously short-handed at linebacker. Kyren Williams is going to get his, but Corum might be in line for a big game too if the Rams utilize their two running backs.
Prediction: Rams 44, Bears 39. Beat reporter’s record: 14-4 overall; 12-6 against the spread.