Can Rams win fourth game in a row and avoid trap game vs. Jets in Week 16?
For the third time this season, the Los Angeles Rams will be playing in the early slate, meaning a 10 a.m. PT start. Following a 10-day break, the Rams are set to travel to the east coast to take on the New York Jets — a team that Sean McVay has never beaten in his coaching career. The Rams will be going for their fourth consecutive win as they make a push for the NFC West title. While the Jets haven’t been good this season, they still have the talent capable of an upset. Here are five keys to victory for the Rams against the Jets.
Get off to a fast start
Back in 2020, the Rams traveled to the Meadowlands to take on an 0-13 Jets team led by a not very good Sam Darnold at quarterback. The Rams were clearly favored in that game, but three-and-outs on offense combined with an interception and blocked punt resulted in them being down 20-3 in the third quarter.
The Rams have been susceptible to slow starts this season and the worst thing that they can do against a bad team is give them life. A few weeks ago, the Seahawks managed to come back from a 21-7 deficit to beat the Jets on the road in the early window. However, that shouldn’t be a risk that the Rams are willing to take. The earlier the Rams can put the Jets away, the better.
Gameplan around Jets pass rush
The Jets defense may not be as dominant as it has been over the past few years. With that said, there are still players on that side of the ball that can blow up an offensive game plan. Quinnen Williams has been dealing with a hamstring injury this week, but if he plays, the Jets defensive tackle ranks fourth in the NFL in pressures. Williams was a big reason for the Jets’ win against the Rams back in 2020. On the edge, Will McDonald IV has been productive this season with 52 pressures and 10 sacks.
Rob Havenstein and Alaric Jackson tend to struggle against speed rushers that can win around the edge. That’s exactly what McDonald brings. Meanwhile, Williams is simply a dominant player on the interior. Additionally, while the Jets only blitz at an average rate, they pick their spots well. They have allowed the second-lowest success rate when blitzing this season. It will be key for the Rams offensive line to pick that up and for Stafford to know where to go with the ball. That’s especially the case when the Rams go to empty where the Jets have the second-most sacks this season.
Capitalize on Jets mistakes
The Jets have the talent to be better than a team that is 4-10. However, they are 4-10 for a reason and it is because they make the mistakes that consistently haunt bad teams. Just over the last four weeks they’ve had enough mistakes to last a whole season. The Jets allowed a game-winning drive to the Indianapolis Colts after leading by eight in the fourth quarter. Looking to extend a 21-7 lead, Aaron Rodgers threw an interception to Leonard Williams against the Seattle Seahawks that was returned 92 yards the other way. Against the Miami Dolphins, the Jets were in position to win with a little over a minute left and in field goal range. Following a run that resulted in a negative play, a sack, and a completion along the sideline that went out of bounds, the Dolphins got the ball back with time. They would go on to tie and win in overtime.
At some point, whether it’s a coaching decision, poor execution, or mental lapse, the Jets are going to give the team on the other side an opportunity and let them back in the game. It’s important that when those opportunities arise, the Rams take advantage of them.
Take away the deep ball
The Rams did a good job last week of taking away the deep ball. Entering the game against the San Francisco 49ers, the Rams defense ranked 30th in EPA per pass attempt of 20 or more yards down the field. Last week, quarterback Brock Purdy was 1-for-8 and had an interception on passes of 20+ yards. It was the most disciplined that the Rams have been in the secondary this season.
They’ll need to have a repeat performance against the Jets. Aaron Rodgers has thrown eight touchdowns of 20+ air yards this season which leads the NFL. The Rams need to pressure Rodgers as his mobility is not what it used to be and the secondary needs to remain disciplined with the ball in the air.
Utilize quick-passing along with the run game
This isn’t to say that the Rams shouldn’t run the ball. However, the Jets defensive front has been difficult to run the ball against this season. Devon Achane averaged less than two yards per carry a few weeks ago and Kenneth Walker barely averaged three yards per carry back in Week 13. The Jets defense this season has done well against the run. They are allowing 0.16 yards before contact which is the third-best in the NFL. The Rams are going to have to stick with the run game like they have the last few weeks when there hasn’t necessarily been a lot of room available. However, a key aspect of that will be to utilize quick passes along with the run game and marry the two together.
On passes of under 10 air yards, the Jets rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback. Additionally, on quick throws under 2.5 seconds, they rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback. When Matthew Stafford has been able to get the ball out quickly, he’s been very efficient this season. He has the fourth-highest EPA per dropback on quick passes with 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions. This goes along with game planning around the Jets pass rush. To put it simply, Stafford can’t hold on to the ball and risk negative plays. The Rams need to stay ahead of the stick.