Is Matthew Stafford a first-ballot Hall of Famer? This Rams defensive player thinks so

Rams safety Quentin Lake thinks Rams QB Matthew Stafford is a first-ballot Hall of Famer

When Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford takes the field in 2025, it will be for the 17th straight year that he has done so. While Stafford is signed for two more years, there’s no guarantee that he plays in 2026 and that next season is his last.

Once Stafford does hang up the cleats, as is the case with other long-time players, there will be a lot of debate on whether or not he is a Hall of Fame player and deserves a spot in Canton.

Rams safety Quentin Lake appeared on Good Morning Football on Thursday and gave his case for why the quarterback shouldn’t just be a Hall of Famer, but a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Said Lake,

“No doubt in my mind that he’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The truest measure of performance is consistency. This is a guy that’s done it year in and year out. Obviously, the tenure with the Lions, he might not have gotten to the playoffs or anything like that, but he showed how much of a dog he was. Every time we’re in the locker room or we’re on the field, we always call him a dog. I’m going to give you a little bit of statistics. He is number ten in all-time passing yards. I’m going to give you a couple of names and you can kind of guess or figure out if these guys are first-ballot Hall of Famers. Some of them are already Hall of Famers — Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Dan Marino. If you look at that whole list, you would be like, ‘Oh, there are some Hall of Famers, there are some guys that are potentially still playing,’ and Matthew Stafford is number 10 on that list. Whenever you’re in the company of other guys like that, you can kind of make an easy assessment and say he’s an easy first-ballot Hall of Famer.”

It’s not a surprise that Lake took this position to defend his quarterback. However, Stafford’s case for the Hall of Fame is a complicated one. As it stands, the Rams quarterback is 10th in all-time passing yards at 59,809. If he were to throw for 7,400 yards over the next two seasons, that would put him solidly at fifth all-time. The same can be said for touchdowns. If Stafford throws for 50 touchdowns over the next two seasons, that would put him into sixth all-time and over Philip Rivers.

With quarterbacks, team success is often looked at as a barometer whether that is fair or not. Unfortunately for Stafford, much of his career was spent with a struggling Detroit Lions franchise where he didn’t win a playoff game in three appearances. His career with the Lions resulted in less team and personal success than other quarterbacks in his generation. He has zero all-pro selections and has been just a two-time Pro Bowl player.

It’s true that Stafford has made three playoff appearances with the Rams and won a Super Bowl. However, Stafford was not named Super Bowl MVP in that game. Is that enough to overcome the ‘what if’ throughout much of his career with the Lions?

Comparing that to other quarterbacks in Stafford’s era, Ben Roethlisberger has zero all-pro, but has two Super Bowl wins and six Pro Bowl selections. Like Stafford, Roethlisberger also was not named the MVP of either Super Bowl win. Philip Rivers doesn’t have a Super Bowl, but was named to the Pro Bowl eight times. Matt Ryan won the NFL MVP award in 2016 and has four Pro Bowl appearances.

All of those quarterbacks have also at one point, led the NFL in passing yards, passer rating, completion percentage, or passing touchdowns. Stafford has never led the NFL in either of those categories.

Had Stafford spent his career in an organization such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s very likely that he is thought of very differently by NFL media. However, outside of volume stats that have been benefitted due to the pass-happy nature of the modern NFL, Stafford doesn’t have the same Hall of Fame caliber accolades.

That’s what makes his Hall of Fame case so complicated. From a talent perspective, he certainly has one of the most talented arms of all-time. For Stafford to solidify his Hall of Fame case, he likely needs at least one more deep playoff run which would need to include a Super Bowl appearance.

The Stafford discourse once he retires is certainly going to be interesting in terms of his case for the Hall of Fame. From a stats standpoint, he has a Hall of Fame resume. However, when it comes to personal accolades and wins, he’s much closer to Joe Flacco or early-career Drew Bledsoe than a Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers.

Stafford may eventually get into the Hall of Fame, especially with another Super Bowl appearance. However, it’s hard to see enough people making those decisions coming to an agreement and making him a first-ballot Hall of Famer.