I’d be OK using this model as contract extension for Kyren Williams

A palatable extension for Kyren Williams falls in the Joe Mixon to David Montgomery range

Much of the offseason talk so far for the Los Angeles Rams has surrounded Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. Perhaps the third biggest story line is a potential contract extension for running back Kyren Williams.

While in some ways the Rams are still recovering from their hang over resulting from Todd Gurley’s market resetting contract, they may choose to hitch their wagon to Williams beyond 2025.

Let’s be clear. It would not be smart money for Los Angeles to pay Williams towards the top of the market. Williams is also unlikely to command such a deal, though his representation may be able to build a case that he belongs in the upper echelon based on stats and production.

If the Rams do decide to extend Williams this offseason, these are similar contracts that I would be OK using as a model and adjusting for inflation:

Draw the line after these players:

These are the five NFL running backs that make more than $10M on an average annual basis:

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: $19M

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: $14M

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles: 12.6M

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: $12.3M

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: $12M

Kamara seems to be the outlier of this group, as he’s the only player to not holdout or hit the open market in some fashion (free agency or trade). Kamara is also the only back in this list on the wrong side of age 30, though McCaffrey is not far behind at 29.

Barkley and Jacobs received large free agent deals. Taylor was a camp holdout that forced the Colts’ hand when compensation for running backs was a high-profile conversation. McCaffrey commanded premium draft capital when the 49ers acquired him from the Carolina Panthers, though he played sparingly this year after receiving an extension through 2027 last offseason.

The Rams would be wise to draw the line after the top five and not pay Williams much more than $10M annually. A better comparison for him in terms of both leverage and talent would be the following group:

Use these players’ contracts as the model, plus inflation:

It may be a difficult argument versus Williams’ representation to pin him in this range; however, in terms of talent and leverage, Williams is more similar to this group of running backs that all make between $8-10M per year.

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: $9.9M

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals: $9.5M

David Montgomery, Detroit Lions: $9.1M

Chubba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers: $8.3M

D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears: $8.0M

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: $8.0M

Only Henry’s deal on this list expires after the 2025 season. The rest are signed through at least 2027 on relatively recent contracts. There isn’t a case of a player signing an extension and then the market outpacing their pay, which makes it reasonable to assume that the Rams can keep Williams under the $10M threshold.

Montgomery seems like a particularly apt comparison to Williams. He’s a great short area running and goal line threat, but he lacks breakaway speed and the offense needs a complementary threat in order to maximize production out of the backfield. Los Angeles will be likely be looking for a change of pace back to pair with Williams this offseason, and that could be a strong counterpoint in negotiations.

Where could Williams fall in this range?

With the NFL’s salary cap slated to increase significantly, Williams could command over $10M annually and that still be a reasonable deal for the team. It’s important to keep the number closer to $10M than the group in the top five that surpass the $12M mark, and the Rams must absolutely stay away from the McCaffrey and Taylor numbers in the $14-19M range.

Rams fans:

Say Williams signs a four year extension prior to training camp that averages less than $11M per year. Is that a deal you would be on board with given the other needs on the roster this offseason? Is it unwise for the Rams to invest in the running back position after the Todd Gurley extension aged so poorly?