The Rams are 7-2 since their bye week, but do they start to late every year?
If the Los Angeles Rams miss the playoffs or end up getting a quick boot, the next big talking point for Sean McVay will be: “Why do the Rams keep starting so slow?”
Basically, the NFC’s version of the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Rams started 1-4 this season. They endured injuries to key players, they narrowly lost to the Lions. However, they also lose to the Cardinals by 31 points, they lost to the Bears and they lost at home to the Packers.
They needed that win over the Cardinals for their division record.
They needed that win over the Bears because Chicago has lost eight straight games.
They needed that win over the Packers for wild card purposes.
After starting 3-6 in 2023 and the disaster that was the entire 2022 season, McVay knows that the questions are coming if the Rams don’t recover and make a playoff run in 2024.
Why?
Because where you finish in the regular season is probably the most important determining factor for how likely it is to make/win the Super Bowl:
- The 2023 Chiefs were the first 3-seed to win the Super Bowl since the Colts in 2006
- Since 1990, 33 number one seeds have reached the Super Bowl
- 26 of those 33 have won the Super Bowl
- 10 number two seeds have won the Super Bowl
So yeah, if the Rams win the NFC West and make the playoffs as a three or four-seed, they’re in the playoffs. But they will have a much harder time getting to the Super Bowl because they would have to travel to at least one of Detroit or Philadelphia, if not both. (If not Minnesota.)
Even the 2021 Rams team that made the Super Bowl as the four-seed had a relatively sweet path to the playoffs:
-They hosted the wild card game and beat a mediocre Cardinals team that was overrated as the 5-seed.
-They went to Tampa Bay in round two and beat the Bucs at the last second.
-Then they had the rare honor of hosting an NFC Championship game as the four-seed, beating the 49ers.
(Yeah, the Rams may not have much of a “homefield advantage” in terms of crowd noise, but it’s still preferable than playing in your opponent’s homefield advantage.)
There’s a 0% chance now for the Rams to get anything better than a 3-seed and unless they make the Super Bowl, the question will go back to what L.A. can do to not start slow next season so that they have the 12-2 record right now instead of the Eagles and Lions.
Or do fans disagree that it would be better to be 12-2 than 8-6?
However, since their Week 6 bye, the Rams have one of the best records in the NFL.
Here’s how the Rams stack up over the NFL’s last nine games:
- 7-2 record (only 4 teams are better since then)
- 13th in points: 24 points per game
- t11th in points allowed: 22.1 points per game
- t14th in point differential: +17
- t12th in yards per play: 5.6
- t4th in turnovers: 6 total
- t11th in turnovers forced: 12 total
- +6 turnovers (tied for 5th)
Statistically, the Rams still hover around the 10th-15th area even during their 7-2 stretch. But the important part is that they’re winning most of the games anyway.
However, you could still look at a team like the Chiefs, who are much more mediocre than L.A., and they’re 13-1. Patrick Mahomes has 7 game-winning drives, 3 more than any other QB, and now Kansas City is in a position to clinch the number one seed in the AFC despite not being very good and potentially losing Mahomes for a game or two.
Why?
Because the Chiefs won stupid games in the beginning of the season and didn’t have to climb out of a 1-4 hole.
It’s okay to be “okay” if you’re winning. It’s harder when you need to make up for lost games.