Don’t be surprised if Rams get crack at Arch Manning in 2026

The L.A. Rams have 2 shots at a first round QB and Arch Manning is already the biggest name in the draft

We have a long ways to go before making any possible connections between the L.A. Rams and Texas quarterback Arch Manning, but there are two narratives going on that deserve a little bit more attention and need to be brought down to earth:

1. That Arch Manning won’t even declare for the 2026 draft (he might)
2. That the Rams won’t be drafting high enough anyway (they might)

Although I agree that Manning could have good reason to stay in college in 2026, mostly because he has barely played during his first two years in Texas and we don’t even know yet if he’s great, it gets a little annoying when the entire media narrative of every podcast and article about him is now changed to “Manning won’t declare”.

If Manning has a superb junior season and is bookmarked to be the number one pick in 2026, he would be an idiot to not declare. So much can go wrong in a year that Arch Manning must take advantage of any opportunity to be a high draft pick if it happens in 2026.

On the Rams end, they might have relatively great odds to get the number one pick in 2026 just based on the fact that while most teams only have one shot, L.A. has two.

And the Atlanta Falcons could crater this season.

Perhaps the only team with greater odds to get a top-5 draft pick than the Rams is the Cleveland Browns, thanks to both their own shortcomings as a franchise and the fact that they also own the Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 first round pick. So the Browns would make a lot of sense as the team to pick first in 2026 (which may have played into their decision to not draft a QB until the third round) but don’t count out the Rams from picking first.

Or Manning from declaring for the draft for a variety of reasons:

Peyton and Eli’s money is not his money

People act as though Arch Manning doesn’t need the money because he’s got the Manning name. Well, that is true to some degree. Manning is a millionaire in his own right because of NIL deals and he will never have to worry about money for as long as he lives.

But, ummm, you realize that Eli and Peyton are just his uncles, right? Do your uncles give you an allowance?

If Manning has an opportunity to get a fully-guaranteed $50 million contract next year, he’d be stupid to let it go because he “doesn’t need the money”.

Nobody needs $50 million. But it’s fair to say that he’d want it.

If he has a great season, that might be his only one!

Although Manning would probably like to get as seasoned as possible — we’ve seen how much experience has helped recent QB draftees — and he barely played through two seasons, he might also find that more experience just sets him back.

Look at how much worse his predecessor Quinn Ewers seemed to get with more experience at Texas.

What happens if Manning goes back to school and he suffers a serious injury? Most quarterbacks will go through at least one serious injury in their careers and there’s no telling when that could happen. If Manning bypasses the 2026 draft to get more experience and then tears his Achilles, that may have been his only shot.

Going back to school when you’re guaranteed to be an early draft pick is far more risky than going to the NFL before you’re ready. You might never be “ready”.

If the Rams get the top pick, it’s even more reason to declare

A lot of QBs fear their careers getting ruined because they’re going to a bad organization, but if the Falcons end up shitting the bed and the Rams get the top pick, it’s a perfect situation for a QB prospect.

That player will be going to a team that wasn’t the worst team in the NFL and the Rams have the luxury of Sean McVay as the head coach and a really strong supporting cast led by Puka Nacua. They might even have Matthew Stafford holding down the bridge for a year!

If the Falcons have a horrible season and Arch Manning has a great season, it might as well be guaranteed that he’s going to declare. There’s also the chance that if the worst team in the NFL doesn’t need a QB, say it’s the Tennessee Titans or the New England Patriots for example, that L.A. would be in the best position to trade up for the number one pick.

We know Les Snead isn’t afraid to trade three first round picks for one. So the Rams actually have more than two shots at the number one pick. There are a few other teams that could tank and want to trade down and the Rams would be the first in line to trade up.

It doesn’t necessarily have to be Arch Manning and we don’t even know yet if Manning will be good enough to go that early, let alone in 2026.

If he’s good enough, then the Rams make a lot of sense as the team willing to make a move for him and they have the ammo for a Texas shootout.