Do the Vikings regret not drafting Jared Verse?

The Vikings traded up and selected Dallas Turner two slots before Rams picked Jared Verse

It’s been a remarkable season for the Minnesota Vikings. After making a high-leverage gamble to move on from franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins and pivot to the future with Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy, the Vikings finished the regular season with an impressive 14-3 record.

Still, even with all the positive takeaways this season, there is likely one move from this past offseason that Minnesota would like to do-over.

The Vikings probably regret trading up for and drafting EDGE rusher Dallas Turner considering that Jared Verse was picked two slots later and is on track to be an elite defender at the position. Verse is the favorite to become this year’s defensive rookie of the year for the Los Angeles Rams.

What contributions have Turner made this season?

Turner hasn’t been bad as a rookie by any means, he had just played sparingly until around Week 13 when his workload notably grew.

While Verse took 833 (484 vs pass) reps in the regular season, Turner pales in comparison at 302 (144 vs pass). Turner played 35 snaps in the regular season opener against the New York Giants, but his workload dropped substantially after. His next game with 30 reps wouldn’t come until Week 15 versus the Chicago Bears. Meanwhile, Verse’s only game with less than 30 snaps came in Week 18 against the Seattle Seahawks while the Rams were resting key starters.

With the disproportionate sample size in mind, let’s look at the players on a ratable basis.

In reviewing grades and pass rush production on what Pro Football Focus (PFF) defines as a “true pass set”—which carves out outliers in the passing game in terms of time to release, designed rollouts, screens, etc.—Turner won 6.5% of his pass rushes. On the other hand, Verse boasts a pass rush win rate of 26.8%. This ranks fourth amongst all edge rushers and is behind only Aidan Hutchinson, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa.

The one area where Turner has an advantage is in coverage, and this was a pronounced strength in his draft profile. Turner has a 77.5 coverage grade from PFF, which ranks 16th among all EDGE defenders. As the nearest defender in coverage this season, he’s allowed just eight catches on ten targets for 57 yards, and interception, and a passer rating of 50.8.

You have to go down the list a ways to find Verse. He’s ranked 96th in the group of EDGE defenders with a grade of 55.3. On just 29 coverage snaps this year, Verse allowed receptions on all five of his targets for 22 yards, a touchdown, and a passer rating of 124.6.

Jared Verse is the next great NFL pass rusher

While traditional stats will only credit Verse with 4.5 sacks—four less than his rookie and former Florida State teammate Braden Fiske—the advanced metrics inform a much stronger argument for Verse’s DROY candidacy. The rookie ranks fourth in total pressures behind Trey Hendrickson, Garrett, and Jonathan Greenard; however, he’s winning his pass rushes at a higher frequency than all of these players aside from Garrett.

The next closest rookie is Chop Robinson of the Miami Dolphins at 56. In terms of pass rush win rate, Robinson is 11th at 23.8. While this is seven spots behind Verse, it’s still very impressive for a rookie. The Dolphins rookie does not yet appear to have Verse’s chops in the run game, but he may develop into a more well-rounded player longer term.

Jared Verse isn’t just good for a rookie. He’s one of the best pass rushers in the NFL already. The sky is the limit, and the Vikings have to regret passing on him in favor of Dallas Turner.