The Upshot’s 2024 NFL playoff simulator projects a 23% chance for the Rams to make the playoffs, but those odds drop to 16% if L.A. loses to the Buffalo Bills. A one-in-four chance is like starting the season back at 0 — not bad for a team that was once 1-4 — but a one-in-eight chance is half as good.
If the Rams beat the Bills, their odds increase to 35%, so more like a one-in-three chance.
And if the Rams win their next two games against the Bills and 49ers, their odds will be over 50%.
With games left against the 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks, the Rams can still go as far as they had wanted to go at the beginning of the season. That being to win the NFC West division and host a playoff game.
But should the Rams lose their next two games and drop to 6-8, there would be less than a 10% chance to recover for the playoffs despite playing Arizona and Seattle in their last two games.
As long as the Rams have a 1% chance, they have a chance. But how they play this weekend against the Buffalo Bills will go a long ways towards determining what those chances actually are.