The Rams offense has struggled recently. Can they fix it?
When the Los Angeles Rams scored 44 points against the Buffalo Bills almost a month ago, it seemed as if the offense was finally clicking. On eight fully offensive possessions, the Rams scored six times. While scoring 40 points every week was never the expectation, it seemed like the offense had found its stride and would get back to the Rams offense that many have grown accustomed to.
To say the least, that has not been the case. The Rams scored 44 points against the Bills and have scored exactly 44 points in the three games since. Weather has certainly played a part in two of those games, but scoring just 13 points against the Cardinals isn’t the norm.
Right now, the offense looks broken at times. It’s streaky and inconsistent from drive to drive. It’s hard to think that a Sean McVay offense would struggle to score 20 points, but that’s exactly what is happening. The big question is why and how do they fix it? Is it even possible to fix at this point or do they just have to hope that the switch flips on Super Wild Card Weekend?
Earlier in the season, the Rams had the excuse of not having Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Combined with an injured offensive line, a discombobulated offense was to be expected. However, outside of one performance against the Bills, it hasn’t gotten much better. Everything on offense seems hard and there’s no ‘easy button’ to fall back onto.
That’s not to say that they haven’t tried to mix it up. McVay has tried moving more away from the pistol and back into empty sets, especially on important downs. In the run game, while they still use gap runs, the ratios have almost flipped. The Rams went from being a 58 percent gap running team to a 49 percent zone running team. There have been adjustments to try to find something that works.
Still, playing offense feels hard. It doesn’t feel like it’s the scheme or the players within the scheme. Instead, it seems more about what the players aren’t doing outside of it. Part of the reason the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford was because he was a quarterback who could transcend the scheme. If a play broke down or a defense gave a bad look, Stafford could overcome the situation.
This isn’t to say that he can’t do that anymore or isn’t still doing it. However, the way that the offense is built, it puts a lot of pressure on Stafford to have success and bail out the offense in big moments. He has the ability to do that, but if he doesn’t, the result is what has happened over the last three weeks. Stafford hasn’t been as consistently sharp in those situations. On third down in Week 15-17, Stafford has completed just 48.1 percent of his passes and averaged 3.93 yards per attempt. Both of those are bottom-5 in the NFL. He has a completion percentage over expectation of -17.4 percent and average depth of target of 5.1 yards. Both of those are in the bottom-two.
The Rams offense has been built in a way that even when the offense is in a tough spot, Stafford can get them out of it. On the touchdown drive against the Cardinals, it was Stafford who found Nacua for 15 yards on 3rd-and-10. Later, he found Nacua for 10 yards again on 3rd-and-10 for a first down. Those are low percentage situations that favor the defense with a small margin for error.
Stafford has always been somewhat of a streaky player. Most of the time he’d show elite levels of play. However, occasionally he’d have a bad quarter and a half or a few throws that a rookie quarterback would make. That gap between the two has begun to narrow.
The Rams are currently playing with small margins on offense. The gap between elite Matthew Stafford and rookie mistake Stafford has tightened. That makes it difficult for the Rams to live in the world that they currently are right now. It’s not sustainable and at some point the bottom might fall out.
With that said, the Rams’ issues in the passing game don’t strictly fall on the quarterback. The Rams offense is running into a similar issue that it had in the back-half of 2021 and early 2022. In 2021 and 2022, the Rams offense ran through Cooper Kupp. That player has since become Puka Nacua.
It’s easy to knock Stafford for locking in on players. Nacua leads the NFL with a 31.3 percent target share since Week 8. However, Nacua is the most open wide receiver on the Rams roster. ESPN’s wide receiver analytics have Nacua with a 73 open score. Kupp has an open score of 35. Robinson has five targets over the last four weeks with zero catches. Nacua also has the highest win-rate since Week 8 at 16.2 percent. If Nacua is the player getting open the most, it makes sense that Stafford would look to target him more.
ESPN Analytics
Nacua is simply the most creative and the most explosive wide receiver in the Rams passing game as it stands. On a per route basis, Nacua leads the NFL in successful targets, explosive receptions, and first downs. The Rams wide receiver also ranks 15th in yards after the catch and 25th in missed tackles forced. Looking at the chart above, Nacua has a YAC score of 65. Meanwhile, Robinson and Kupp are nearly 30 points lower.
Even with Nacua as good as he’s been, this is a Rams passing attack that ranks inside the bottom-10 in yards after the catch and missed tackles forced per reception since Week 8. Only 45.6 percent of Stafford’s yards since Week 8 have come after the catch.
That lack of creativity with the ball extends into the running game as well. As a rushing offense, the Rams are the second-least explosive run offense in the NFL. Only the Raiders are worse and they have one of the worst running games this season. Kyren Williams is fine. His vision and strength in short-yardage are nearly unmatched. He’s really good at hitting a single and getting eight yards. However, he does not have the ability to break off big runs.
Williams has an explosive run rate of 1.9 percent. That is the third-lowest rate in the NFL ahead of only Kareem Hunt and Gus Edwards. Only 9.8 percent of his rushing yards have come on explosive runs which is the second-lowest in the NFL. Among players with 200 carries or more, Williams’ 1.9 percent explosive run rate is the third-lowest since 2021 ahead of only Hunt this year and David Montgomery in 2022.
Ian Hartitz
It’s not as if teams are selling out to stop the run. Williams faced eight or more defenders in the box on just 14 percent of his carries which is the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. His explosive run-rate against 8-man boxes is only slightly higher at 2.6 percent. Bucky Irving, who runs against light boxes at a higher rate than Williams, has an explosive run rate of 6.9 percent.
To add to that, Williams has the sixth-lowest rate in missed tackles forced per attempt with 0.13. He also averages 2.08 yards after contact per attempt which is the fourth-lowest.
The Rams offense is simply not explosive and struggle getting the extra yardage. When you think of a Sean McVay offense, you think of big plays. Those plays aren’t happening consistently enough right now. There is something to be said about defenses looking more to take those plays away with a shell. However, the Rams face the two-high looks on offense at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.
Right now, it’s a slow offense. The Rams have the sixth-most plays per drive in the NFL. They want to grind down opponents and out-physical them at the line of scrimmage. This is a team that performs well on a play-to-play basis. Their dropback success rate since Week 8 is inside the top-10.
This is an offense with good players. Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp are good players. However, the offense lacks explosive players and playmakers who can make something happen. Players like Williams and Kupp are not explosive.
Everything is more difficult because of the lack of explosiveness and the pressure being put on Stafford and the passing game. The margin for error is smaller because instead of scoring in six to eight plays, they are scoring in 10-13 plays. Over the last three weeks, when the offense hasn’t benefitted from field position due to a turnover, they are averaging 10.75 plays per scoring drive. In the three wins before that, they were averaging 8.67 plays per scoring drive.
The offensive line is still partially something to mention. Swapping Rob Havenstein for Joe Noteboom last week was noticeable. The Rams haven’t been able to build consistent cohesion up-front most of the season. However, it is not as big of a talking point as it was earlier in the year. The issues run deeper than that.
This offseason, adding explosive playmakers on offense who can add to the scheme with their play-making ability is going to be a priority. The Rams need to find a way to make things easier on offense. However, for now, this is an offense stuck with the personnel that they do have. That means for the foreseeable future, this is a Rams offense that is going to have to grind out wins. They’ve done so by winning their last four, but the playoffs will be a different beast.