The 17-game season has created too many “double-digit” win teams
There are reasonable complaints to be made about the product of a 14-team playoff, but that’s not the only NFL expansion that needs to be addressed: 10-7 teams are just 9-7 teams masquerading as “double-digit wins”.
And that’s being generous based on a technicality, but the reality seems far worse as 10-7 teams haven’t looked like they belong in the postseason at all. Can the Rams change that on Monday?
10-7 teams
In addition to the Seahawks missing the playoffs at 10-7 (which is only their record because the Rams didn’t even try in Week 18), here is how 10-7 has played out:
- 10-7 Texans WON 32-12
- 11-6 Chargers LOST (to the TEXANS)
- 10-7 Broncos LOST 31-7
- 10-7 Steelers LOST 28-14
- 10-7 Bucs LOST 23-20
- 11-6 Packers LOST 22-10
Teams with fewer than 12 wins went 1-5 during wild card weekend with the sole win being against a 10-7 team. What are the chances that the Texans will beat the Chiefs next week? Houston is only in the playoffs because the AFC South sucks.
They beat the Chargers.
The Chargers went 11-6, but they only beat one playoff team: The 10-7 Broncos.
L.A. swept Denver in the regular season and the Chargers made the playoffs, but the Broncos only beat two playoff teams: The 10-7 Bucs and the Chiefs, but that was in Week 18 with Kansas City resting all its starters.
The Bucs had slightly more success against good teams, beating the Eagles and Lions in the regular season, but they also got swept by Atlanta, lost to the Cowboys, lost to the Broncos, and lost to the 49ers. They were in the playoffs because of their division.
The Packers went 11-6 but went 2-5 against playoff teams, both against 10-7 teams: Rams and Texans.
Which brings us back to the L.A. Rams, 10-7’s last chance to beat a team in the wild card round that had at least 12 wins, that being the Vikings.
The Rams posted wins over the Bills and Vikings, they pushed the Lions to overtime, and they probably could have swept the Seahawks (which therefore wouldn’t make Seattle 10-7) if they needed to try in Week 18. But L.A. also lost to the Cardinals, the Dolphins, the Bears, and the Packers.
No other team in their position has as much playoff experience tucked away as the Rams do, having won a Super Bowl in 2021 with many of the same key players and coaches, so that could make L.A. more dangerous than these other 10-7 teams. But the competition is stiff and has proven to be stiff:
Teams with 12+ wins went 4-0 this weekend.
Can the Rams help the Vikings become the first such team to take an L?