Is Sean McVay making right decision resting starters?
For a second consecutive season, the Los Angeles Rams are set to rest their starters against a division opponent in Week 18 of the regular season. With a playoff spot all locked up, the Rams could play for seeding. However, win or lose, the Rams will open the postseason at home.
That seems to be enough for McVay as it was last year. As long as the Rams are in the dance with Matthew Stafford, they have a chance. Said McVay on Wednesday,
“We’re still working through the specifics of how we’re going to approach it. What I can tell you guys is Jimmy Garoppolo will start at quarterback this week. That’ll give Matthew a chance to be able to get some rest. Other than that, that’s kind of really all that I have as it relates to just the approach this week.”
There are questions to be had on whether or not resting Stafford and other starters is the correct decision. Last year, the Rams lost to the Lions 24-23 while going 0-for-3 in the red zone. There’s also the example in 2017 in which the Rams opted to rest their starters in Week 17. They hosted the Falcons in the Wild Card round, but lost 26-13. In both games, the Rams haven’t scored a touchdown in the second half.
Since the new playoff format was introduced in 2020, teams to rest or partially rest their starters are just 3-7. Just last year, teams resting their starters were 1-3 with the lone win coming from the Kansas City Chiefs.
- 2020 Steelers lost to Browns, 48-37
- 2021 Eagles lost to Buccaneers, 31-15
- 2021 Bengals defeated Raiders, 26-19
- 2022 Ravens lost to Bengals, 24-17
- 2022 Buccaneers lost to Cowboys, 31-14
- 2022 Giants defeated Vikings, 31-24
- 2023 Eagles lost to Buccaneers, 32-9
- 2023 Rams lost to Lions, 24-23
- 2023 Chiefs defeated Dolphins, 26-7
- 2023 Browns lost to Texans, 45-14
That doesn’t necessarily mean that resting starters is bad. If Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, etc. were to roll an ankle in a pointless game, they wouldn’t stand a chance anyway. The Rams haven’t had a bye week since Week 6 and have earned the privilege to rest. Still, it’s interesting that with four years of data in the new playoff format, only three teams to rest their starters in Week 18 have gone on to win on Wild Card Weekend.
With that said, the element of seeding does matter. While the playoffs are about simply beating whoever is in front of you, there are easier paths to the Super Bowl than others. As the three seed, it is within the realm of possibilities that the Rams wouldn’t play on the road until the NFC Championship game. Just last year as the three seed, that’s exactly what happened to the Lions. The Cowboys got upset on wild card weekend, giving the Lions a home game in the divisional round.
Deniz Selman
This year, if the Eagles play the Packers, it could end in another upset, giving the No. 3 seed a second home game. As the three seed, Philadelphia would also be the only outdoor stadium that the Rams would have to play at if the two teams met.
At the same time, if the Rams lose and end up as the four seed, they would likely play the loser of the Vikings and Lions. Those two teams will be playing for the NFC’s number one seed on Sunday Night. Whichever of those teams ends up as the fifth seed will be under-seeded and could make noise in the postseason. It’s true that the Rams only lost to the Lions in overtime and beat the Vikings. Still, those are two very difficult teams.
Any team is going to provide its own set of unique challenges. As the three seed, the Rams would likely play the Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels has been one of the best running quarterbacks this season. Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed the sixth most yards per carry on scrambles. With that said, the Commanders haven’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road this season.
The Rams have made their choice and it shouldn’t be a surprising one considering McVay’s history. When weighing the risk-reward, McVay’s confidence shines in the fact that he believes this team can beat anybody when healthy. That may result in creating a more difficult path, but that’s the route that the Rams have chosen. When the Rams made the Super Bowl in 2021, they did it as the four seed. If they rest their starters and lose to the Seahawks, that’s the likely path that they’ll have to take once again.