A few weeks ago, the prospect was tantalizing: An all L.A. Super Bowl, Rams vs. Chargers, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the San Francisco 49ers.
I mean, how much angst and consternation would that have caused, in the Bay Area in particular and Northern California in general? A full SoCal takeover might have caused some NoCal heads to explode.
Recent events seem to have chilled that possibility, pun partially intended.
As the NFL’s postseason tournament begins this weekend, the odds of a Rams-Chargers meeting for the Lombardi Trophy are listed as 43-1 by one online sports book whose betting lines regularly tumble into my inbox. That sounds about right, especially since at least one of their playoff paths, and possibly both, will go through the chill of this continent’s Northeast quadrant.
Football fans in this region with long memories know how that usually winds up. (Spoiler alert: Not well.)
But the locals did it to themselves. Both had shots at division titles and potential No. 1 seeds. The Rams let theirs get away in overtime in Seattle three weeks ago after blowing a 16-point fourth quarter lead – and maybe there’s a lesson here: If there’s a ball lying on the ground, make sure you pick it up first even if the whistle has blown.
Then they were “humbled,” as Coach Sean McVay put it, in a Monday night game by Atlanta, which fired Coach Raheem Morris earlier this week. And they had to rally last Sunday at home to beat an Arizona club that finished 3-14, which earned them the No. 5 seed and not incidentally avoided a wild-card round game in Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, the Chargers blew their shot at a division title and maybe a No. 1 seed by losing to Houston in Week 17, in a flurry of mistakes and missed opportunities. A victory would have given them a shot at toppling Denver, which did wind up as the AFC’s No.1 seed, in the regular-season finale.
But give Coach Jim Harbaugh credit for resting his regulars last Sunday in Denver. Remember that his predecessor, Brandon Staley, used his starters at Denver in Week 18 with a playoff berth secured in January 2023, only to have receiver Mike Williams suffer a small fracture in his back that kept him out of the playoff opener.
Chargers fans probably don’t need a reminder of what happened in that game in Jacksonville, nor why years of postseason failures have provided this team its own place in the Urban Dictionary. See: Chargering.
(Are you sure those odds are just 43-1?)
In fairness, the Rams should beat the Carolina Panthers on Saturday. Yes, they lost in Charlotte, 31-28, in Week 12, snapping a six-game losing streak. Bryce Young, Mater Dei’s own, threw three touchdown passes for the Panthers that day, while Matthew Stafford threw for two scores but had two passes picked off, one returned 48 yards by Michael Jackson for a Carolina touchdown.
But seriously? The Rams were 12-5 and finished second in a far tougher division. Carolina won the NFC South at 8-9. And wouldn’t it be fairer for seedings, and thus home games, to be based on regular-season record instead of the top four going to division winners regardless of record? For one thing, it would further emphasize the importance of each of those 17 games.
As it stands now, understanding that the field is re-seeded after each round, the chances of the Rams getting back to SoFi Stadium this season depend on some serious upsets this week by No. 7 seed Green Bay and the sixth-seeded 49ers.
If the Packers, 49ers and Rams all win this week – which means toppling Chicago, Philadelphia and Carolina, respectively – it’s Rams-Niners Part III in SoFi next week. What are the odds of that?
Otherwise, the Rams might be looking at Philadelphia (if Green Bay wins and San Francisco loses), and this is worth noting: The Eagles won their early-season meeting in Week 3, 33-26, thanks to a blown lead and a crucial special teams mistake at the end. Since then the Rams have changed their kicker and special teams coach.
If the 49ers win and the Packers lose, the Rams would play in Chicago. And if both the 49ers and Packers lose, a Rams victory would give them a rubber match with the Seahawks next week in Seattle.
The Rams should at least win at Carolina, especially with the return of injured stars Quentin Lake and Davante Adams providing a boost on each side of the line. Realistically they should have handled things in those players’ absence, but having guys like Lake, Adams, Tyler Higbee and Braden Fiske back this week certainly won’t hurt.
The Chargers’ hill is steeper, a Sunday night game in Foxborough, Mass., against New England, where the home team is 14-3 and the No. 2 AFC seed and the temperature will probably be somewhere in the high 20s to low 30s at kickoff, some time after 8 p.m. Eastern. But at least the rain should be gone by then.
Hey, I grew up here. You wonder why I have this fixation with weather conditions at playoff time?
Consider, just as a small sample size, the last two playoff games the Chargers have played in Foxborough. In January of 2008, the night Philip Rivers played on a torn ACL against an undefeated New England club, the score was 26-12 Patriots and the game time temperature was 23 degrees with 17 mph winds (and the image that lingers is that of LaDainian Tomlinson, unavailable with a hyperextended knee, huddled in a parka on the Chargers’ bench).
In January of 2018, it was 41-28 Patriots in 26 degree temperatures at kickoff.
Then again, the Patriots beat the Chargers – a group that seemed capable of winning it all – in January of 2007 in San Diego, 24-21, in 53 degree temps. (That was the Marlon McCree game, and I apologize to longtime Chargers fans for bringing up that missed opportunity.)
None of that has any bearing on Sunday’s matchup, obviously. This time the Chargers will attempt to slow down New England quarterback Drake Maye, along with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford a frontrunner in the league MVP race.
Should they win, their path would be straightforward as the No. 7 seed: The rubber match of their season series with division champ and No. 1 seed Denver, on the road.
This is also an opportunity for Justin Herbert to establish his playoff bona fides in front of a national audience, as well as living up to the hype of his coach. This week’s glowing compliment from Harbaugh during his Wednesday session with reporters in El Segundo:
“Every time, I think Justin can’t possibly go up any higher in my esteem. And then each week, there’s another rung. There’s another rung. There’s another rung. … I think I’m at the point where, and I’ve said it already, I mean, I think he’s the best there ever was.”
Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Montana, among others, weren’t available for comment.
All of that said, our predictions – for what they’re worth – going into the postseason:
The Rams will make quick work of the Panthers and avenge that late November loss. But they’ll play Chicago in the divisional round – another frigid destination – and will lose. The Chargers will bow out Sunday, after being reminded that the Mike Vrabel-Drake Maye Patriots are shaping up to be almost as difficult an obstacle as the Belichick-Brady bunch was … and the weather ain’t getting any warmer in Foxborough in January.
As for that Feb. 8 game at Levi’s Stadium? The Seahawks take home the Lombardi Trophy, 26-21, over the Patriots, and also avenge Super Bowl XLIX.
(But if I were you, I would not take those picks to the bank.)
jalexander@scng.com