5 keys to victory: How can Rams send Vikings packing on wild card weekend?

What do Rams need to do to upset Vikings on wild card weekend?

The Los Angeles Rams are back in the postseason and are set to host the Minnesota Vikings at State Farm Stadium in Arizona. This could end up being one of the better playoff games of the week with both teams playing with a lot on the line. The Rams will be playing for the city of Los Angeles and trying to get a playoff win for the first time since their Super Bowl run. On the other side, the Vikings are trying not to waste a 14-3 season. Here are five keys to victory for the Rams on Monday Night.

1. Pressure Sam Darnold with Four Pass Rushers

This one should really go without saying, but it is key for the Rams to not just get pressure, but to get pressure with their front four. The Rams don’t have the personnel in the secondary to do what the Lions did last week which was to bring six and seven-man pressures and play man coverage 67 percent of the time. The Rams have to be able to get to Darnold with four and then play zone behind it with a mix of man coverage like they did against the 49ers.

The difference in Darnold when he’s pressured versus when he is not is night and day. Without pressure, Darnold averages 0.29 EPA per dropback. With pressure, that drops to -0.34 EPA per dropback. With pressure, the Rams can force Darnold to work outside of the structure within the Kevin O’Connell offense.

When Darnold is able to get the ball out quickly and knows where he’s going with it, he averages 0.23 EPA per dropback. On throws over 2.5 seconds, he averages -0.04 EPA per dropback. That’s not to say that the Rams can just let Darnold sit in the pocket. This season, 80 percent of Darnold’s passing yards have come when he’s had over 2.5 seconds to throw. However, Darnold isn’t going to check the ball down and settle. He has the sixth-lowest checkdown rate in the NFL and the third-highest turnover-worthy play percentage.

The important part here is for the Rams to pressure Darnold and force him out of the pocket. When Darnold is pressured and forced out of the pocket, he is 8-for-38 this season in those situations. That’s the worst completion percentage in the NFL.

When the Rams beat the Vikings in Week 8, a lot of it had to do with Jared Verse getting pressure following Christian Darrisaw’s injury. Verse’s pressure rate went from 7.7 percent in the first half to 30 percent in the second half. The Vikings have since replaced Darrisaw with Cam Robinson. Since Week 9, Robinson has allowed the most pressures among tackles and the most quarterback hurries. This is a matchup that the Rams have to win.

2. Continue to win in red zone on defense

To the surprise of many, the Rams actually have the fifth best red zone defense in the NFL. For the Rams to win this game, the defense is going to have to win in the red zone. In the three games that the Vikings have lost this season, they have gone 2-for-8 in the red zone. That doesn’t mention their worst offensive performance of the season against the Jacksonville Jaguars in which they went 0-for-5.

The Vikings rank 19th in red zone offense and are bottom five in their last three games. They rank 20th in points per red zone trip and Darnold has three red zone interceptions. The Rams didn’t allow the Vikings offense in the red zone once back in Week 8. If the Rams defense does get into the red zone, there will be an opportunity here for the defense to make plays. That’s something that the Rams have done at times this season, notably in division games against the Seahawks and Cardinals. If the Rams can hold the Vikings to field goals rather than touchdowns or create a red zone turnover, it will go a long way in winning this game.

3. Recognize pressure and protect Matthew Stafford

When the Vikings played the Rams earlier this season, Brian Flores relied a lot more on four-man pressures than his typical five and six-man pressures. Flores and the Vikings defense will typically bring pressure on early downs to get offenses playing behind the sticks. If offenses are playing from behind their game-script early, there’s a better chance to kill drives before they start.

In Week 8, Flores didn’t have a key player available for his blitz packages. That player was linebacker Blake Cashman. Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel both play a big part in Flores’ simulated pressures. That’s especially the case with Cashman. The Vikings defense has been a completely different unit when Cashman has been on the field.

Earlier this season, the Rams gave up just eight pressures in the first meeting against the Vikings. Stafford was kept clean and it was arguably the best performance from the offensive line this season. However, the addition of Cashman changes things and the Rams need to be able to recognize where pressure is coming from before the snap.

The Vikings have one of the highest blitz rates in the NFL with 31 percent of their blitzes coming as simulated pressures. Stafford is fifth in success rate against the blitz this season and fourth in EPA per dropback. Since that Week 8 matchup, Stafford leads the NFL in yards against the blitz, is sixth in yards per attempt, has thrown five touchdowns to zero interceptions and has taken zero sacks. To add to that, Puka Nacua is first in receptions, first in yards, and third in first downs per route when targeted against the blitz.

One way to combat the Vikings blitz packages could be by relying on empty. Since Week 14, Stafford has averaged 0.63 EPA per play from empty formations. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is 14th in EPA per play defending empty and blitz on only 14.9 percent of those snaps.

4. Rams need playoff performance from Kyren Williams

The Rams are going to need a playoff-level performance from Kyren Williams against the Vikings on Monday Night. Williams had just 13 carries for 67 yards against the Lions last year. He also wasn’t 100 percent healthy in that game. For the season, the Vikings lead the NFL in EPA per rush on defense. However, since Week 12, they are bottom-10 in defensive success rate on early downs.

In Week 8, the Rams had a lot of success running out of 12 personnel to the backside away from the tight ends. The Rams haven’t used a lot of 12 personnel since that game, but it will be interesting to see if they get back to it. It’s going to be important for Kyren Williams to keep the offense on track and pick up 5-8 yard chunks. Williams had 23 carries for 97 yards back in Week 8 with a long of 17. If the Rams can rely on Williams in the run game to help slow down the pass rush, it will significantly help Matthew Stafford.

Additionally, Williams will need to contribute in the passing game. He had five receptions in the first meeting with the Vikings, which tied for his season high. While the Vikings have been good covering running backs this year out of the backfield, this is another way to slow down the pass rush. Seven of Stafford’s completions in Week 8 came at or behind the line of scrimmage. That was also the most for Stafford in a single game this season. The Rams will also need Williams to step up in pass protection.

5. Start Fast and play for the city

There are a lot more important things going on right now in Los Angeles than a football game. At the same time, it’s still disappointing that the Rams won’t be able to play at home in front of what was projected to be a Rams-heavy crowd. The recent California wildfires brought back memories of 2018 in which the Rams beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football, 54-51. That ended up being an emotional game with a great atmosphere. The Rams may not have that same atmosphere, but they can still rally around the city. There will be plenty of Rams fans who make the trip.

The key here will be to start fast and get the Rams crowd into the game. That happened in Week 8 in which the Rams scored a touchdown on their opening two drives. The Rams scored an opening quarter touchdown in two of their biggest wins this season. This season, the Vikings have trailed after the first quarter just four times. Three of those ended in one-score wins for the Vikings and the other was a Week 18 loss to the Lions. If the Rams can get that early momentum and start putting doubt in Sam Darnold and the Vikings offense, they could create some mistakes.