This is what’s burning up my mind as the Rams embrace their next playoff run.
The Los Angeles Rams are in the postseason for a second consecutive season. Throughout the Sean McVay era, the Rams have followed a trend. They make the playoffs and then the following year reach the Super Bowl before missing the postseason entirely.. This is technically a Super Bowl year if that trend continues, but even if it isn’t I wanted to lay out my thoughts on this Rams playoff team specifically.
This has been one of the more difficult Rams teams to predict on a week-to-week basis. They have consistently been inconsistent. Some of that has been because of injury, but they’ve also been an average to below average team for much of the year. They certainly have upside and tend to play up to their opponent. That opponent in the wild card round will be the Minnesota Vikings. Here are 10 thoughts that I have about this Rams team heading into the playoffs.
1. Matthew Stafford needs to heat up
The Rams will only go as far as Matthew Stafford takes them. However, Stafford needs to play much better than he has over the last three weeks in order to take the Rams anywhere. He hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards since lighting it up against the Bills. Since that game, Stafford ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 20th in adjusted EPA per play, and 24th in completion percentage over expectation. His average depth of target is ahead of only Bo Nix and he hasn’t been accurate throwing the football. To say Stafford is currently in a slump would be an understatement.
What’s concerning about those numbers is that Stafford isn’t being pressured that often and is being kept clean. He’s been pressured on just 23.8 percent of his dropbacks which is the fourth lowest rate in the NFL. The Rams have also had a good running game. Even with that being the case, there’s a confidence that Stafford can turn it around. Stafford threw seven interceptions over the three weeks heading into the wild card game against the Arizona Cardinals in 2021. Stafford tends to have a three-game stretch like this every year but gets himself out of it. The Rams quarterback has thrown for 300 or more yards in three of the five playoff games since coming to Los Angeles. That version of Matthew Stafford needs to show up on Monday Night.
2. Worried about the offense
If the Rams go into Monday Night with the mindset that they just needed a week of rest and a healthy offensive line will fix everything, they will lose. There have been a lot of issues with the offense since the Bills game. The question is whether or not McVay can fix it in time for the playoff game against the Vikings. There are serious concerns with the offense. The starting offense, which excludes Week 18, hasn’t scored 20 points in three consecutive games.
Right now, the offense looks broken at times. It’s streaky and inconsistent from drive to drive. It’s hard to think that a Sean McVay offense would struggle to score 20 points, but that’s exactly what is happening. The offense is steady, but it’s not explosive. Over the past three weeks, the Rams have been able to grind out games on offense. That isn’t a sustainable way to win in the playoffs.
3. Rams defensive front is deepest in the NFC
It would be bold to say that this Rams defensive line can carry them to the Super Bowl. However, it doesn’t seem bold to say that this is the deepest unit in the NFC. The Rams were just one of three teams to have four players generate 40+ pressures. Those players are Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske, and Byron Young. When rushing four, the Rams generated pressure on 32.9 percent of dropbacks. That’s the eighth highest in the NFL.
Having a deep defensive line rotation in the postseason and being able to rotate in fresh legs is important. It’s not just that the Rams have their four guys, but players like Michael Hoecht, Bobby Brown III, and Ty Davis all have roles as well. This is a deep group that can make a positive impact in the postseason.
4. Watch out for Kam Kinchens as X-factor on defense
There are several potential X-factors for the Rams in the playoffs. My pick on defense is going to be rookie safety Kam Kinchens. Kinchens is a player I’ll be keeping a close eye on as he has the upside to make a game-changing play.
Whether it’s a game-clinching interception, a pick six, or a turnover that changes the game, that type of play could come from Kinchens. Kinchens has four interceptions this season and only played in 14 snaps back in Week 8 against the Vikings. The Rams rookie safety has been a bit of a ball hawk in the secondary. It would not be surprising to see him make an impact play at some point.
5. We Want Detroit in Round 2
Ever since the Wild Card Round loss to the Lions last year, there is nothing that the Rams would like more than to avenge that loss. The Lions are the hot team in the NFL and these two teams have developed quite the rivalry. There was the incident in which Kerby Joseph hit Tyler Higbee in the knee and Matthew Stafford called him out on it during the game. Joseph has also taken public shots at Stafford since then as well.
That doesn’t mention that the Rams fell in overtime to the Lions back in Week 1. In both losses, the Rams have to feel like they could have or should have won both of those games. There are fewer things they would want more than to get another chance and pull off the upset.
6. Defense can carry the team with help
It should be noted how well the Rams defense has played since the bye week. Since Week 7, the Rams defense ranks 10th in defense EPA. They’ve allowed a passer rating of 82.5 which is fifth-best in the NFL. Their 5.57 average net yards allowed per pass attempt is seventh. In the run game, they rank eighth in run defense success rate and have allowed an explosive run on 3.1 percent of rushing attempts which is fifth-best. That’s including the Eagles game against Saquon Barkley.
To put it simply, this is a Rams defense that has been good over the back half of the season. Over the past three weeks with the starters, they showed that they have the ability to win games. Heading into the playoffs, this is a group that can carry the Rams to postseason wins. However, they still need help from the offense.
7. Playoff Puka Nacua
Throughout his Rams career, wide receiver Puka Nacua tends to show up in big games. Back in Week 8 against the Vikings, Nacua had seven receptions for 106 yards. Against the Bills, he had 162 yard receiving. In the playoff game against the Lions last year, the Rams rookie had nine catches for 181 yards and a touchdown.
Nacua is going to show up in the postseason. He’s proven to be a big game player throughout his short two-year career. Monday Night’s game against the Vikings doesn’t get much bigger. When the Rams won the Super Bowl in 1999, it was Isaac Bruce with an unforgettable playoff run. In 2021, it was Kupp. This is Nacua’s time to shine and it should be excited to see.
8. Could this be last playoff run of Stafford and Kupp?
This may not be Stafford and Kupp’s last season in Los Angeles. Even if Stafford comes back, there is the chance that the Rams end up moving on from Kupp. Personnel and business decisions aside, these are two players that are also just getting older. Making the playoffs in the NFL isn’t an easy feat.
While the Rams have been building towards 2025, it’s still possible that this is the last playoff run of Stafford and Kupp together. At this point in their career, nothing can be taken for granted. These two players have had a crazy run together and no matter what happens, they’re going to go out swinging.
9. Do it for LA
There are some things bigger than football and the California wildfires and certainly that. At the same time, it’s still disappointing that the Rams earned the opportunity to host a playoff game, were projected to have a good crowd, and the game will get played at a neutral site. The last time a playoff game was hosted at a neutral site was back in 1936. In 2018, the Rams ran into a similar situation in which they were supposed to play in Mexico City, but the game got moved to Los Angeles due to poor field conditions. During the same time, there were some serious wildfires in California. The Rams came out with a lot of emotion and won that game 54-51 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Moving the game from Los Angeles certainly changes the dynamic in this game. However, the players can still help bring the community together and win this game for their city. It’s going to be difficult for some players to even think about football with their homes potentially in danger. Moving the game to Arizona doesn’t ease those concerns. Still, the Rams have the opportunity to do something special on Monday Night.
10. Not sure what this team is, but the future is bright
This Rams team has been one of the more difficult to predict in the Sean McVay era. They started 1-4 and didn’t look like a playoff team. The Rams weren’t necessarily losing to great teams at the beginning of the season either. They lost 41-10 to the Cardinals and lost by six to the Bears. After battling back to 4-4, they lost to the Dolphins at SoFi Stadium.
This is a Rams team that shocked the Bills by winning 44-42 and then scored 44 points total in their next three games. The starting offense has scored two touchdowns since scoring five in that game against the Bills. They are consistently inconsistent, but no matter what happens, it’s important to enjoy the ride. This Rams team may not make the Super Bowl and that’s not to say that they can’t. However, early in the season there were discussions on trading Kupp and instead they went on to win the NFC West title.
The future remains bright. General manager Les Snead has crushed the last two draft classes which should keep them competitive over the next few years. Getting players like Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Steve Avila, Puka Nacua, and others are franchise-altering. Those are players that can be built around.
Nobody knows how the 2024 season will end and at this point, nothing can be taken for granted. This roster has gone through a lot and it has been a chaotic journey since the beginning of training camp. They’ve overcome injuries and a slow start to make the playoffs. Any playoff loss isn’t going to leave a great feeling, but either way we can leave this season proud of how this Rams team performed.