Matthew Stafford has MVP-like performance in Week 14 win against the Bills
The Los Angeles Rams arguably played in the game of the year on Sunday, beating the Buffalo Bills 44-42. Not many gave the Rams a chance against the 10-2 Bills going into Sunday, but it was a prime example of ‘any given Sunday’. Matthew Stafford won’t be in the MVP conversation, but he matched the MVP-front runner throw for throw. This was exactly the type of performance that the Rams needed heading into the final stretch. Let’s get into this week’s 10 takeaways.
1. Rams set the tone early
Against arguably better opponents this season, the Rams have done a good job setting the tone early. It’s hard not to wonder what would have happened had Kyren Williams not fumbled on the opening drive against the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s no secret that the Rams offense has struggled with fast starts. However, in order to have a chance against the Bills, it is exactly what they needed to do.
The Rams got the ball first and marched down the field, scoring a touchdown. After the Bills matched, the offense went down and scored a field goal to re-take the lead. The Rams never trailed in this game and because of that, it forced the Bills to feel like they were constantly playing catch up. That’s seen in the box score as Josh Allen threw the ball 37 times while James Cook had just six rushing attempts. The Bills got behind and put it all on Allen to bring them back.
2. Special teams made the play of the game
When we have talked about Rams special teams over the last two years, it has usually been in a negative sense. There were the punt returns in games against the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants last year that lost or almost lost games. That doesn’t mention the issues with the field goal unit.
However, it was the Rams special teams that had a positive impact on Sunday and it was a play that changed the feeling of the game. Leading just 10-7, the Rams defense got a stop, forcing the Bills to punt. Linebacker Jake Hummel got through and blocked the punt while Hunter Long scored a touchdown to make it 17-7. From that point on, the Rams were in control and there was a belief that they may just be able to pull off the upset.
3. Blake Corum and Kyren Williams provide good balance in run game
For a second week in a row, the Rams mixed in a good balance of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. That change in personnel led to some big gains in the run game. While Williams only averaged three yards per carry on 29 attempts, Corum averaged 4.2 yards per attempt on eight carries.
Between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum yesterday with Puka Nacua mixed in on jet sweeps, the Rams ran the ball 42 times against the Bills.
That’s the most rushing attempts during the McVay era since the Rams ran the ball 42 times in a 48-32 win against the 49ers in 2018.
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) December 9, 2024
Both Williams and Corum are similar style runners and aren’t going to hit the home run. With that said, Corum does provide a little more shiftiness which seems to catch defenses by surprise. This is never going to be a 50-50 split, but the Rams have found a good balance the last two weeks and it paid off on Sunday as they ran the ball 37 times between the two.
4. Where has this offense been all season?
This question is more so rhetorical because it’s been pretty obvious what the issues with the Rams offense has been for much of the season. They were missing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the early part of the season, but there has also been a lot of change on the offensive line throughout the year. The Bills game was the first time this season that the Rams had what you would consider their starting offensive line playing together in back-to-back weeks.
For the first time this season, the Rams had some consistency in personnel and that resulted in some consistency on the field. It seems simple, but the cohesiveness in the offensive line is such an underrated element to the Rams offensive success. The Rams likely won’t score 40 points every game, but hopefully this is more of the norm rather than just a one-off.
5. Puka Nacua is ridiculous
Puka Nacua remains extremely underrated as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. It seems like almost every week he’s making an acrobatic catch in which he lays out on the field. Nearly every game we ask, “How did he do that?” Then he goes out and makes an equally good or even better catch the following week. Nacua made several of those types of catches against the Bills.
The only question from the Rams win is “Where wasn’t Puka Nacua yesterday?”
Nacua was targeted on over half of his routes against the Bills. Since Week 8, he has a target share of 38.8% which leads the NFL. pic.twitter.com/IWWSEKt2nG
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) December 9, 2024
The Rams offense went through Puka Nacua against the Bills and he showed that he can do it all. Between blocking, being utilized in the screen game, used on jet sweeps, and then everything he does downfield, Nacua took over the game. Almost every time the Rams needed a big play, Nacua was there to make it.
6. Matthew Stafford was in God Mode, especially on third down
There are one or two games every season in which quarterback Matthew Stafford is absolutely dialed in. Last year it was the game against the Ravens. This season, that “God mode” performance came on Sunday against the Bills. This wasn’t a game in which Stafford started cold and then heated up as the game went on or started strong before having a lull and turning it on for the fourth quarter. Stafford was on for all four quarters and made a couple of insane throws. A few of those came on third down where Stafford was 9-for-10 for 119 yards with two touchdowns. The Rams quarterback had a 1.18 EPA per play on third down alone.
Arguably the biggest game of the year and Rams QB Matthew Stafford had his best game of the year.
Stafford went 23-30 for 320-yards. Outperformed Josh Allen in EPA per dropback. Just an example of despite being 36, Stafford can still perform at a MVP level. pic.twitter.com/8AZNRcGNJe
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) December 9, 2024
A lot of the MVP talk will get directed towards Josh Allen which is absolutely deserved after he had six total touchdowns. However, Stafford matched Allen throw for throw and outperformed him from an EPA per dropback standpoint. For the Rams to win, they needed a big performance from Stafford and they got it. The Rams quarterback finished with 0.78 EPA per play to Allen’s 0.65. The defense may have given up 42 points, but Stafford led the Rams to 44. Stafford won’t be in the MVP conversation, but Sunday was a reminder that he still has that ability.
7. Defense wasn’t perfect, but got stops when needed
This isn’t to say that the Rams defense was good. They gave up 42 points in 21 minutes on the field and issues with bad angles, tackling, and making a play on the ball in the secondary remain big issues. With that said, this is also partially what was expected of the Rams defense coming into the year.
The defense needed to be better, but at the same time they made big stops when needed. Up 10-7, they got a stop that led to the blocked punt. With the Rams leading 24-14, they got a stop that prevented the Bills from doubling up before the half. They also got a stop coming out of the half which allowed the offense to score and take a 17-point lead. That also doesn’t mention stuffing Allen at the goal line to force the Bills to take a timeout. This was similar to the Kansas City Chiefs game in 2018. The defense wasn’t particularly good in that game, but they did enough and got stops when needed to get the win.
8. Sean McVay’s late-game management proved crucial
Sean McVay takes a lot of criticism for his in-game management, especially late in games when the clock becomes crucial. Sunday was an example of how McVay wins games for the Rams. The first part here worth mentioning is that McVay put together a fantastic offensive game plan for the Bills defense. The 44 points scored by the Rams were the most against a Sean McDermott led defense since Week 1 of 2018 when the Bills gave up 47 to the Ravens.
What was most impressive about McVay was his late-game management. With the Rams leading by three with four-minutes left, McVay decided to go for it on 4th-and-5. If he “takes the points” the Rams go up by six and are likely down 42-41 with less than a minute left. Instead, McVay put the ball in the hands of his quarterback who made a play. The Rams would go on to score a touchdown and put the game out of reach. On the other end, McDermott went for a quarterback sneak from the one-yard line instead of throwing the ball. The Rams got a stop and McDermott had to use a timeout and was forced to run a low-percentage onside kick to have a chance at winning the game.
That was a GREAT decision from Sean McVay.
Can blame confidence in Joshua Karty, but end of the day it is the right call. Rams gain 0.5% in win percentage by going for it there. pic.twitter.com/K318PaCz39
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) December 9, 2024
9. For the first time this season, the real Rams arrived
It’s hard to say that this was the first good all-around performance given how the defensive side of the ball played. However, with how well the offense played and how well McVay coached, it felt like for the first time all season that the actual 2024 Rams had finally showed up. Most Rams wins have felt like a slog at times. While it was a close game, this was the most fun the Rams have been to watch all season.
At the very least this shows exactly what the Rams can be. They may not be a Super Bowl contender this year, but they have the ability to be a dangerous team in the playoffs as they have the ability to beat any team on any given day. The hope is that beating a team like the Bills instills the confidence that the Rams need to go on a run over the final four games.
10. Rams have to be able to show a similar level consistently
That leads into this next point. The schedule sets up in a strange way this week in which they have the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football. While the Rams have shown they can win big games on the short-turnaround, it’s the emotional letdown that remains a big question mark for how this young team handles the Bills win.
If the Rams have shown one thing this season, it is that they are consistently inconsistent. While the win against the Bills was big, a win on Thursday in San Francisco is bigger considering the division implications. The Rams have the opportunity to put the 49ers’ season to bed. It’s unfair to expect the Rams to play at this level every week, but they need to show some consistency and that Sunday was not a one-off performance.