Chargers first-round running back Omarion Hampton has been projected to lead all rookies in total touchdowns from scrimmage in 2025.
The Chargers drafted running back Omarion Hampton with the 22nd-overall pick in hopes he’d swiftly become the future of the backfield in Los Angeles. How fast that actually occurs will depend on the success — or lack thereof — of fellow backfield mate Najee Harris this season, of course, but there are some analysts that believe he won’t have to wait long before making his mark at the NFL level.
In a new piece over at ESPN, NFL analyst and overall numbers guy Mike Clay went about projecting the rookie leaders in the usual offensive and defensive categories. Hampton saw his name come up several times. The first of which was being ranked second to Raiders first-rounder Ashton Jeanty in total rushing yards with Hampton projected for 961 yards behind Jeanty’s 1,120. However, Hampton is projected to lead all rookies in rushing touchdowns with nine. Jeanty is tied for second with Pittsburgh’s Kaleb Johnson with a projection of seven scores.
“Hampton’s outlook is not as rosy as Jeanty’s, but it’s still pretty strong. Since 2011, eight RBs have been selected in the back half of the first round. Five reached 800 rushing yards (Doug Martin, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel and Clyde Edwards-Helaire), while the remaining three were limited to backup/situational roles (Mark Ingram, Rashaad Penny and David Wilson). Hampton will need to fend off newly acquired Harris for work, but the No. 22 pick will likely operate as the lead back in Jim Harbaugh’s run-friendly scheme.”
If Hampton does end up becoming the lead back for the Chargers earlier than expected, then this next ranking for Hampton makes sense. After projected to finish second in rushing yards, Hampton was picked first to lead all rookies in touchdowns from scrimmage with 11, two more than Jeanty in second place.
“The aforementioned past four backs selected in the top seven (Barkley, Richardson, Elliott and Fournette) all produced at least 10 touchdowns as a rookie. So Jeanty reaching double-digit TDs would be on par with the historical production — but I don’t expect him to reach that mark. In fact, I have Hampton ahead of Jeanty in total touchdowns because the Chargers’ offense will likely outscore the Raiders’ unit over the course of the season. Los Angeles will likely score more rushing touchdowns, too.”
At first I was surprised to see Hampton ranked at the top here, but Clay’s argument makes sense. If the Chargers play up to their expectations on offense, I don’t see why Hampton, or Harris, wouldn’t get plenty of opportunities to score. But at the same time, their scoring ceiling will be tied to the play of the interior offensive line. Seeing as that unit did not get all that upgraded this offseason outside of adding former Eagle Mehki Becton, I wouldn’t be surprised if their numbers ended up worse than these by the end of the regular season.
What are everyone’s thoughts on these predictions? Yay or nay? Give us all your thoughts below!