CHARGERS (11-6) at PATRIOTS (14-3)
When: 5 p.m. PT Sunday
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV/Radio: NBC (Ch. 4)/640 AM, 94.3 FM (Spanish)
Line: Patriots by 3.5
Notable injury designations
Chargers: OUT: WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (hamstring), S Kendall Williamson (ankle); QUESTIONABLE: T Austin Deculus (oblique), OLB Bud Dupree (hamstring), TE Tucker Fisk (ankle), RB Omarion Hampton (ankle), DB Elijah Molden (hamstring), LB Del’Shawn Phillips (hamstring).
Patriots: OUT: DL Khyiris Tonga (foot); QUESTIONABLE: CB Alex Austin (wrist), WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), LB Harold Landry (knee), OT Thayer Mumford Jr. (knee).
What’s at stake: The seventh-seeded Chargers haven’t won a playoff game since defeating the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC wild-card game Jan. 6, 2019. They lost a divisional-round game to the Patriots one week later. They are 0-2 since then, including a loss in a wild-card game last Jan. 11 to the Houston Texans that ended Jim Harbaugh’s first season as their coach. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is 0-2 in his postseason career. Outside linebacker Khalil Mack is 0-5 in the playoffs, including 0-2 with the Chargers. The Chargers have won the past two regular-season games against the Patriots, including a 40-7 rout in Week 17 last season. New England quarterback Drake Maye is a leading MVP candidate, sparking the second-seeded Patriots. An upset victory by the Chargers would send them to top-seeded Denver for a third meeting with the Broncos this season.
Who’s better: The Chargers’ schedule was far more difficult than the Patriots’ and so their results were more impressive, especially victories over the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the runner-up Kansas City Chiefs in back-to-back weeks last month. The Chargers were 5-1 against the AFC West. The Patriots’ schedule was as soft as a marshmallow, and their only victory over a team with a winning record was Oct. 5 over the Buffalo Bills. They lost the rematch Dec. 14.
Matchup to watch: Can the Chargers contain Maye the same way they managed to do so in victories over Jalen Hurts and the Eagles and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Maye completed 72% of his passes this season. The Chargers’ defense ranked ninth in points given up (20 per game) and was fifth in net yards allowed (285.2 per game) this season. The Patriots were second in points scored (28.8 per game) and third in net yards (379.4 per game). So, something’s got to give.
Chargers win if: The Chargers are well rested after Harbaugh gave most of their key players, including Herbert and Mack, the day off in their Week 18 loss to the Broncos. Herbert needed a break after he fractured his left, non-throwing hand Nov. 30 against the Las Vegas Raiders and underwent surgery the next day. The Chargers will need Herbert and Mack and everyone in uniform to be at their best if they are to win and advance to face the Broncos in the next round.
Fantasy sleeper: If the Chargers give Herbert time to throw, if he can go through his progressions and pick out open targets, then wide receiver Keenan Allen could have a big game. He’s the most veteran and reliable of all the Chargers’ wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. He’s certain to get plenty of looks.
Prediction: The Chargers have the more experienced of the two quarterbacks. When their defense is at its best, it’s one of the NFL’s stingiest. The weather will no doubt be chilly, but nothing like they faced on that 15-degree afternoon last month in Kansas City. For those and several other reasons, the Chargers have a shot to pull an upset and beat the Patriots. Chargers 30, Patriots 28.