Michigan football is halfway there. Six games in, six to go. Maybe seven to go, depending on these next six. You know what? For everyone’s sanity, let’s just shoot for six and go from there.
How have the Wolverines’ past opponents done thus far? Let’s take a gander.
Fresno State (3-3, 1-1 in Mountain West)
When they played Michigan: A 30-10 Wolverine victory that foretold the arrival of Kalel Mullings…and the eventual departure of Davis Warren.
What’s happened since: The Bulldogs walloped on FCS Sacramento State and two teams from The Land of Enchantment – New Mexico and New Mexico State. They averaged 44 points per game in those contests. Hajj-Malik Williams and a surging UNLV put a stop to all that, 59-14. The Bulldogs then lost to Washington State, 25-17.
Still to come: Washington State was their toughest remaining opponent. The rest of the season is fairly light, including a season finale against last-in-the-Big Ten UCLA. The Bulldogs look like a good bet to finish above .500, as long as the Bulldogs aren’t too traumatized from their one night in Vegas.
Key Component: Quarterback Mikey Keene. Keene is a smaller quarterback, but also a spark plug with a quick release and toughness to spare. On one hand, he currently sports an 8:8 touchdown: interception ratio on the season. On the other, their remaining schedule doesn’t feature many intimidating defenses. If Keene can improve ball security while continuing to Grit It Up, it bodes well for head coach Tim Skipper’s interim tenure.
Texas (6-0, 2-0 in SEC)
When they played Michigan: It was not great.
What’s happened since: A week after dismantling Michigan, Quinn Ewers sustained an oblique injury against UTSA. Arch Manning entered in his stead and the Longhorns missed zero beats. Must be nice. Ewers came back for the Red River Rivalry and, after shaking off the rust, led Texas to an exceedingly comfortable 34-3 win.
Still to come: Next up is a Georgia team that looks tough but mortal this year. If they can survive that, they’ll be in the driver’s seat the rest of the way and almost certainly bound for a top seed in the Playoff. That is, of course, unless the Diego Pavia Experience in Nashville has anything to say about it.
Key Component: Health and injury avoidance, at this point. Steve Sarkisian looks like he’s having a blast calling this offense, and the defense hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in any game this season. If they get past Georgia, the #1 seed beckons.
Arkansas State (3-3, 1-1 in Sun Belt)
When they played Michigan: A 28-18 Wolverine victory that wasn’t as close as the final score would have you believe.
What’s happened since: Incredibly lopsided losses to Iowa State and Texas State. In the middle, they nail-bit their way to a last-second win over South Alabama. The Red Wolves do not look like a great team this year. Despite the previous bullet point’s assertion that Michigan’s win was better than it looked…it also feels worse knowing that ASU is currently 115th in FPI.
Still to come: Butch Jones will have a good shot to end up on the right side of the box score against a reeling Southern Miss team up next. The rest of the Sun Belt is generally bunched toward the bottom of FBS rankings. As such, the remaining schedule is full of tossups.
Key Components: Linebacker Marvin Ham and wide receiver Corey Rucker. Both are in the top five at their positions in the conference. In this conference, sometimes a few star players are the difference between a Good Season and a Bad Season.
USC (3-3, 1-3 in Big Ten)
When they played Michigan: 27-24, Michigan. It’s not often you can pass for 32 yards and win, but that’s what the box score says happened, and so we are honor-bound to believe it.
What’s happened since: A resounding win over Wisconsin (good!). Subsequently, the Trojans choked away near-wins against Minnesota and Penn State (not as good!). For Lincoln Riley and anyone with a vested interest in Lincoln Riley, it might be dangerously close to Panic Mode time in University Park. That being said…
Still to come: The season is salvageable. There are tough but beatable opponents left on the schedule: Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Washington. There’s a probable win at UCLA and a toss-up finale hosting Notre Dame. Win out and it’s a 9-3 season. Any more slip-ups and Riley’s seat could get hot, fast.
Key Component: Shutting the door. In all seriousness, USC is statistically a top-25 team. They’ve unfortunately dropped some brutal one-score games in Scott Frost-ian fashion. Nonetheless, D’Anton Lynn’s defense still looks massively improved over last year’s tackle-averse outfit. Plus, it’s still a Riley offense with Woody Marks, Miller Moss, and a million wide receivers. They just need to show up and close out the fourth quarter.
Minnesota (4-3, 2-2 in Big Ten)
When they played Michigan: 27-24, Michigan. Not trying to be repetitive, it’s just what happened.
What’s happened since: A gutsy 24-17 win over USC, then a late rally to beat lowly UCLA, 21-17.
Still to come: Maryland, Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Nothing is guaranteed in either direction, except probably a loss to the Nittany Lions. Otherwise, the Gophers are probably going bowling at the very least.
Key Component: Offensive identity. P.J. Fleck continues to lean on quarterback Max Brosmer for 30+ passes per game. If they’re going to survive the rest of the schedule, they’ll need a strong running game to help keep Brosmer clean. It’s been a staple of Fleck’s past offenses, and if it can’t resurface they might be in trouble down the stretch.
Washington (4-3, 2-2 in Big Ten)
When they played Michigan: 27-24, Michigan. Kidding, of course. 27-17, Huskies. They stormed the field, it was a whole thing.
What’s happened since: A 40-16 defenestration by Iowa, which is considered a rite of passage in the Big Ten. Washington was hoping for some Midwestern kindness and got two hefty scoops of Kaleb Johnson (188 total yards, three TDs) instead.
Still to come: It’s only getting harder for the Huskies, who still have to play top-3 teams Penn State and Oregon, plus currently 16th-ranked Indiana and a ticked-off USC.
Key Component: Crossing the finish line. Washington continues to move the ball, but not with any regularity to the most crucial part of the field (the end zone). There’s hope for the future in Seattle with what Jedd Fisch is building, but the present is a disappointing number of stalled drives and points left on the field.
Next up, we’ll review Michigan’s remaining opponents. Spoiler alert: they’re going to be difficult.
The post Checking In On Michigan’s 2024 Opponents: Part 1 appeared first on Last Word on College Football.