Despite losing LeBron James for what could be weeks, the Los Angeles Lakers are confident Luka Doncic can carry the team until he returns and believe playoff health, not seeding, is the key to win the championship.
The Lakers’ source of that confidence was the 24-game stretch starting January 15th when they won 20 out of 24 games with their new trapping, rotating, and swarming team defense ranked #1 in the entire league.
While Rob Pelinka was pulling off the blockbuster trade for Luka Doncic, Lakers’ rookie head coach JJ Redick was transforming his team from a middle-of-the-pack defensive team to the #1 defense in the entire NBA.
The Lakers firmly believe that health is the only thing that can prevent them from winning the NBA championship this season. If they go into the playoffs healthy, they believe to a man they can win the championship.
The next few weeks will be a major test for head coach JJ Redick and the Lakers’ backcourt of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. They will need to elevate their play to another level to give LeBron James maximum rest.
Choosing to optimize playoff health over seeding could be a risky gamble that could easily result in the Lakers being forced to meet the Nuggets in the second round with Denver boasting their usual home court advantage.
Keeping LeBron out for 3 or 4 weeks instead of 1 or 2 weeks to enable him to be 100% for the playoffs could also backfire, with the Lakers sliding down the standings out of the top-6 and into the Play-In Tournament.
Let’s take a look at when the Lakers’ key injured players are projected to return, the team’s immediate and remaining schedules, and the chances that betting on playoff health over seeding will be the smartest strategy.
. . .
When Are The Lakers Injured Players Projected To Return?
…
Last night against the Brooklyn Nets, the Lakers were missing four key rotation players, including starters LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, and Jaxson Hayes and team plus/minus leader off bench Dorian Finney-Smith.
We saw how tough it was to beat even a tanking team like the Brooklyn Nets when missing four of your top six players, especially when the two players who played — Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves — did not have great games. While James is a couple of weeks and Hachimura at least a week at best from returning, the good news is the Lakers should get Finney-Smith back for Thursday’s game against the Bucks and Hayes hopefully soon after.
Frankly, the even bigger question for the Lakers is when will they get the real Luka Doncic and the real Austin Reaves back from injury as both of their two backcourt stars are still struggling to get back to their form.
Over the last two games, Luka Doncic has averaged 28.0/10.0/7.5 while shooting 39.6%/40.0%/83.3% with a -8 +/- while Austin Reaves averaged 16.5/5.5/6.0 while shooting 30.8%/41.7%/92/3% with a team-worst -11 +/-.
Right now, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are not generating anywhere near what they normally produce and there are still signs that neither is 100% recovered from their injuries, which continues to be concerning.
While the Lakers when healthy have a deep and diverse roster, they’re going to need help from the basketball gods to remain healthy throughout the playoffs if they are to have any chance of all of winning another ring.
If the Lakers get Hayes and Finney-Smith back and a better Doncic and Reaves the next 6 games, they should have enough depth and diversity to regroup and get back to playing like they did during their 20-4 stretch.
. . .
Lakers Must Somehow Survive Three Straight Back-To-Backs
…
The Lakers’ immediate problem is how to survive the crazy 6-game stretch from the schedule makers with 3 straight back-to-backs with 1 day off. That’s 6 games in 8 days for a team missing 4 of their op 6 players last game.
Hopefully, the Lakers can stop their 2-game slide with a win tomorrow night in Milwaukee against the Bucks, who’ve now lost 3 straight games. The 36–28 Bucks are now tied with the Pacers for 4th seed in the East.
The Lakers play the Bucks tomorrow night in Milwaukee in the first half of a back-to-back and then again a week later at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles in the second game of their third back-to-back in over 8 days.
While the Bucks are a formidable opponent, the big challenge for the Lakers will come against their nemesis Denver Nuggets. whom they will play Friday night in Denver and then again on March 19 in Los Angeles.
At best, the Lakers need to sweep the 2-game home-and-away series with both the Bucks and Nuggets. At worst, they need to at least split the two series with Milwaukee and Denver to survive the triple back-to-backs.
Besides the home-and-away series with the Bucks and Nuggets, the Lakers will also play the Suns and Spurs in a back-to-back, two teams that the Lakers should be able to beat although nothing is guaranteed in the NBA.
What the Lakers cannot do against the Suns and Spurs at this point of the season is to lose a winnable game. The rest of the Lakers season has to be Luka and Austin getting healthy and getting their games back together.
The Lakers will need to play like they did when they won 20 of 24 games in order to survive three straight back-to-backs over 8 days. If they get Jax and DFS back and the real Luka and Austin, they should survive this stretch.
. . .
Lakers Must Somehow Hold Onto Top-6 Seed In The West
….
Right now, the 40–23 Lakers have lost 2 straight games and are tied with the Nuggets for #2 in the West with 23 losses, 1 loss ahead of the #4 Grizzlies, 2 losses ahead of the #5 Rockets, and 5 losses ahead of the #6 Warriors.
L.A. has 19 games left in the regular season and faces the 4th toughest schedule per Tankathon.com while the Nuggets face 11th, the Grizzlies the 6th, the Rockets the 17th, and the Warriors 13th toughest schedule left.
Comparatively, the Lakers (8–2) and Warriors (9–1) have been the hottest of the five teams trailing the Thunder in the West with the Nuggets (6–4), Rockets (6–4), and Grizzlies (5–5) playing close to .500 over last 10 games.
Considering how competitive the Western Conference is, the Lakers should be able to survive the three straight back-to-backs with at least a 4–2 record if not better. That should be enough to safely keep them as a top-6 seed.
Once the Lakers get past the looming three back-to-backs, they should get Rui back as well as DFS, which would restore their starting lineup and 10-man rotation. L.A.’s goal is to be 100% healthy heading into the playoffs.
After the 6 games of back-to-backs, the Lakers remaining 13 games are still challenging, with 5 games vs. competitors: two games against the West leading Thunder, 2 games against the Rockets, and 1 against the Grizzlies.
The Lakers objective during these remaining games will be to dominate their West playoff competitors, especially the Oklahoma City Thunder, and change the narrative heading into the playoffs with the Lakers as favorites.
The Lakers should be able to allow LeBron James to rest for 3 or 4 weeks and still be able to win enough games to finish with a guaranteed top-6 playoff spot in the Wester Conference as a favorite to win #18.