Will LeBron James take a below-max contract with the Lakers for the second straight year?
Last offseason, LeBron James was reportedly feeling magnanimous.
After LeBron declined his $51.4 million player option ahead of free agency, Klutch Sports superagent Rich Paul told ESPN’s Dave McMenamin that he ”would be willing to work with the Lakers” on signing a below-max deal “to open up the full $12.9 million mid-level exception to sign an ‘impact player’” such as James Harden, Klay Thompson or Jonas Valančiūnas.
The Lakers didn’t land any of those three, but James still took roughly $2.7 million less than the two-year, $104 million max extension that he was eligible for. That helped the Lakers stay $45,000 below the second apron, which wound up being a franchise-altering decision.
Had he not done so, the Lakers wouldn’t have been able to acquire Luka Dončić ahead of this year’s trade deadline since they couldn’t have aggregated the contracts of Anthony Davis and Max Christie in that deal.
If James decides not to retire this offseason, would he consider a similar discount? The reporting on that front has been mixed to date.
In late March, Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints reported LeBron would “very likely” consider taking a below-max contract if it helped the Lakers bolster their roster around him and Dončić. However, Jovan Buha and Sam Amick of The Athletic recently reported that “he’s not expected to consider the kind of pay cut that was in play around this time a year ago.” And ESPN’s Shams Charania said on the Pat McAfee Show that LeBron is likely to pick up his $52.6 million player option, although his agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, is feigning ignorance on that front thus far.
During a recent appearance on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Rachel Nichols of Fox Sports 1 floated a more radical proposal: that LeBron should take a veteran-minimum contract.
“He is a billionaire. So, how much money he makes in the next year or two? It’s not even going to put a dent in his grandchildren’s grandchildren’s grandchildren’s pockets,” Nichols said. “And if I were LeBron, the thing you cannot buy with whatever amount of money you do get in that contract is championship rings.
“And if you took just the league minimum, and that allows a third really sort of huge superstar to come in, not only could he win another ring, but if he sticks around—and there’s certainly a lot of talk about the fact that he wants to now wait to play with his son, Bryce, who still has a year at Arizona coming up and there’s a couple of years until Bryce comes in the league—he could get maybe two rings.”
If the Lakers had their way, James would take Nichols’ advice. But assuming that option is off the table, how much less than a max should they want James to take this offseason to give them optimal flexibility to upgrade their roster? That depends on a few factors.
Between Dončić ($45.9 million), Rui Hachimura ($18.3 million), Austin Reaves ($13.9 million), Jarred Vanderbilt ($11.6 million), Gabe Vincent ($11.5 million), Maxi Kleber ($11.0 million), Dalton Knecht ($4.0 million) and Bronny James ($2.3 million), the Lakers already have $118.2 million in guaranteed salary on their books for the 2025-26 campaign. Next year’s salary cap is projected to be roughly $154.6 million.
If James were to take a minimum deal and Dorian Finney-Smith declined his $15.4 million player option, the Lakers could have nearly $30 million in cap space to round out their roster, along with the $8.8 million room mid-level exception. But if James takes anywhere near a max deal, the Lakers aren’t going to have cap space this offseason.
The Lakers’ proximity to the first apron ($195.9 million) and second apron ($207.8 million) will be the far bigger concerns. If they cross the first apron, they won’t be allowed to take back more salary than they send out in a trade and they’ll lose access to the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency.
If they cross the second apron, they’ll lose the ability to aggregate contracts in free agency, and they won’t have access to any mid-level exception.
Finney-Smith will be the first swing point in that regard, as he has a $15.4 million player option that he’ll either have to pick up or decline by June 29. When Michael Scotto of HoopsHype asked Finney-Smith about that in mid-March, he replied, “You see what just happened with Luka? So, you’ve got to make sure you take care of yourself first.”
However, when Finney-Smith got asked at his exit interview whether he had considered his contract situation, he said, “No, not really. [I was] just trying to get to the second round, man. I’ll worry about that around the draft and summer league and all that stuff.”
Finney Smith is currently eligible to sign a three-year extension worth up to $56.4 million with a starting salary of $17.9 million. If he declines his player option and becomes a free agent this offseason, the Lakers could sign him to anything up to a five-year max deal, although he won’t get anywhere close to that.
If Finney-Smith is willing to decline his player option for more long-term financial security, the Lakers should aim to start his new deal below $15.4 million. If they gave him a three-year, $42.1 million contract that began at $13.0 million flat, for instance, they’d have $131.2 million in guaranteed salary committed to nine players. That would leave them roughly $64.7 million below the first apron and $76.6 million below the second apron before turning their attention to LeBron.
If the Lakers used the $14.1 million non-taxpayer MLE, they’d be hard-capped at the $195.9 million first apron. They could either spend it all on one player (presumably a starting center) or divvy it up between multiple players, but they’d be hard-capped either way.
In the scenario where DFS signs a new deal starting at $13 million, using the full value of the non-tax MLE would leave the Lakers roughly $50.6 million below the first apron and $62.5 million below the second apron. LeBron’s max salary is projected to be $54.1 million, so they’d already be unable to sign him to a full 35 percent max deal.
Realistically, LeBron might have to take $10-plus million less than his max starting salary to give the Lakers enough wiggle room under the first apron to use the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Would he be willing to make such a sacrifice if that enabled the Lakers to sign Myles Turner or Brook Lopez as their new starting center? What if it helped them get both Clint Capela and Bruce Brown Jr.?
That’s where order of operations comes into play.
The Lakers will be allowed to begin legally negotiating with James one day after the NBA Finals conclude. The two sides will have a few days to hammer out a general framework of a new deal before free agency begins. From there, LeBron might wait to sign his new deal until he sees how the rest of the Lakers’ offseason unfolds.
Once the Lakers finish their roster tweaks, they figure to re-sign him for the highest amount they possibly can without crossing the second apron.
Without knowing whether the Lakers will be able to retain Finney-Smith (and for how much), it’s impossible to give an optimal target to the dollar for James’ new deal. But if the Lakers are hoping to maintain access to the non-taxpayer MLE this offseason, they’ll likely need James and/or Finney-Smith to cut them a sizable break.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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