Luka Dončić becomes extension-eligible on Aug. 2, but he has a few different paths he could explore this offseason.
On Aug. 2, Luka Dončić will become eligible to sign a four-year, $228.6 million contract extension with the Lakers. Despite all signs pointing to him remaining in Los Angeles, there’s no guarantee that he’ll actually sign such a deal, though.
Had he not gotten shipped to L.A. ahead of this year’s trade deadline, Dončić would have been eligible to sign a five-year, $345.3 million supermax extension with the Dallas Mavericks since he made an All-NBA team both in 2022-23 and 2023-24. He might look to recoup some of that lost earning potential by signing a shorter extension with the Lakers this summer that allows him to test free agency again sooner.
There’s also no guarantee that he signs an extension at all. He might prefer to see how the Lakers round out the roster around him this offseason and at next year’s trade deadline before committing to them long-term. He could make more money as a free agent in 2026 than he can by signing an extension this summer, although he wouldn’t have the financial security that an extension would provide if he suffers a major injury next season.
So, which path should Dončić choose? Let’s walk through the pros and cons for all three.
The standard extension
This is the most straightforward option for the Lakers. The most they can offer Dončić this offseason is a fully guaranteed four-year, $228.6 million extension.
- 2026-27: $51,033,600
- 2027-28: $55,116,288
- 2028-29: $59,198,976
- 2029-30: $63,281,664
- Total: $228,630,528
This also might be the option that Dončić is least likely to agree to.
The plus side of this path is that Dončić would be locking in $225-plus million of financial security. It would give him a safety net if he suffered a major injury next season that jeopardized his availability for the 2026-27 campaign. With that said, there’s a chance that he’d still receive a full max contract as a free agent in 2026 even if he did.
Dončić might not prefer this path because it would restrict his overall earning potential. He could earn an extra $67.4 million from the Lakers in 2030-31 by becoming a free agent next summer, while a shorter-term extension would allow him to test free agency again sooner, when he’s eligible for an even larger deal.
If Dončić isn’t worried about receiving the most money he possibly can over the next half-decade, perhaps he will entertain this option. Besides, if he continues along his first-team All-NBA trajectory over the next few years, he might be in line for an even higher salary in 2030-31 than he would be if he signed a five-year deal in free agency next summer.
Becoming a free agent
Dončić could decide to eschew signing an extension entirely, which would give the Lakers one full season to prove that they have a post-LeBron James succession plan in place. In that scenario, the Lakers would be allowed to offer Dončić a five-year deal worth nearly $296 million.
- 2026-27: $51,033,600
- 2027-28: $55,116,288
- 2028-29: $59,198,976
- 2029-30: $63,281,664
- 2030-31: $67,364,352
- Total: $295,994,880
Other teams could offer Dončić no more than a four-year, $219.4 million deal, which is nearly $10 million less than the extension he can sign with the Lakers this summer.
- 2026-27: $51,033,600
- 2027-28: $53,585,280
- 2028-29: $56,136,960
- 2029-30: $58,688,640
- Total: $219,444,480
Multiple teams do seem to be keeping their books clean for 2026, including the Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat, so Dončić might be interested in exploring all of his options before committing to the Lakers. However, he’d be better off financially signing an extension this offseason and then angling for a trade down the line, as that could also widen his options for potential landing spots.
The main reason for Dončić to turn down an extension this offseason would be to lock in the extra $67.4 million for the 2030-31 season if he re-signed with the Lakers. With that said, that might also not be optimal from a financial perspective. As long as Dončić continues along his current trajectory, he should have no issue landing another max contract beginning at 35 percent of the salary cap after his next deal expires. Since the cap is expected to rise 10% annually for the next few years due to the new national TV deals — and those raises compound, unlike annual raises in players’ contract — 35 % of the cap in 2030 will likely be well above $67.4 million.
That’s why a shorter-term extension might be Dončić’s best bet.
The short-term extension
Getting traded from the Mavericks took a 35% max contract off the table for Dončić this offseason. To maximize his earning potential, he’d have to become a free agent as soon as he has enough years of service (10) to qualify for a 35% max deal.
Dončić just finished his seventh NBA season and has one guaranteed year left on his contract. If he signed a three-year, $165.3 million max extension with a third-year player option this summer, he could decline his $59.2 million player option in 2028-29 and sign a five-year max deal worth more than $415 million that offseason.
Here’s what his extension would look like:
- 2026-27: $51,033,600
- 2027-28: $55,116,288
- 2028-29: $59,198,976
- Total: $163,348,864
If the cap continues to rise 10% annually between now and 2028-29, here’s what his next contract could look like:
- 2028-29: $72,042,250
- 2029-30: $77,805,630
- 2030-31: $83,569,010
- 2031-32: $89,332,390
- 2032-23: $95,095,770
- Total: $417,845,050
Dončić’s starting salary on this contract would be roughly $72 million. That’s nearly $13 million more than what he’d receive in 2028-29 either by signing a longer extension this summer or by re-signing with the Lakers in free agency next offseason.
As long as Dončić continues along his first-team All-NBA trajectory for the next few years, he’d be a lock for a full five-year max contract in 2028-29. Even if the Lakers weren’t willing to shell out that type of money, other teams could offer him a four-year, $309.8 million max deal that still tops what he could earn on a five-year deal as a free agent next summer.
The one downside to this approach would be if Dončić suffers a career-altering injury between now and 2028. There’s no guarantee that a $300-plus million contract would be waiting for him in that scenario. But as long as Dončić avoids that type of catastrophic setback with his health, a short-term extension would be the best way for him to maximize his earning potential over the next half-decade.
Besides, the $59.2 million player option would give him some insurance — much like former teammate Kyrie Irving, who tore his ACL in March but has a $44 million player option for the 2025-26 season to fall back on if needed.
Regardless of what Dončić decides to do, timing should work in his favor. Since he doesn’t become extension-eligible until August, he’ll get to see how the Lakers navigate the draft and free agency first.
LeBron James should be done with his annual “pretend he might leave the Lakers even though there is zero chance he’ll actually leave the Lakers” routine by then, too. That could help give Dončić the clarity he needs before deciding upon his own financial future.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
Follow Bryan on Bluesky.