The 2019-20 NBA season is almost upon us, the perfect time to speculate wildly about things that will happen months from now. With the Eastern Conference done, now it’s time to move on to the Western Conference and try — keyword — to figure out who will be advancing to the 2020 NBA Finals.
2019-2020 Western Conference Playoffs Predictions
First Seed – Denver Nuggets
Last season was a great one to be a Denver Nuggets fan. After narrowly missing the 2018-2019 playoffs, the Nuggets came out the gate and owned a top seed in the West the entire season. Nikola Jokic emerged as a bonafide MVP level player. In the playoffs, the Nuggets lived up to the hype taking down the San Antonio Spurs in seven games, though they’d fall the to Portland Trail Blazers in seven in the semi-finals. Still, for one of the youngest teams in the league, the Nuggets are only trending up.
Though the Nuggets didn’t make any big team altering moves this summer, there was no need to. As stated, the Nuggets are one of the youngest teams in the league, and so can count on internal development to take another leap. They picked up the team option on Paul Millsap to keep the veteran forward around one more year. Then, they signed guard Jamal Murray to a five year, $170 million contract extension. Lastly, the Nuggets took advantage of the Oklahoma City Thunder purge to trade for “three-and-D” forward Jerami Grant.
Last season, the only team to finish better than the Nuggets were the Golden State Warriors with Kevin Durant. With that juggernaut no longer around, and with the Nuggets getting better, it seems almost a given they take the first seed. They’ve got the youth and depth to weather the 82-game marathon. Jokic should be gunning for his first MVP, and the Nuggets will be looking at homecourt throughout the West playoffs.
Second Seed – Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers spent last season building towards the future. Since Jerry West became an advisor for the Clippers, the franchise has steadily been building trade assets and complementary pieces. The icing on the cake last season was still making the playoffs in the West. The icing on top of the icing was still winning two games against the juggernaut Warriors. Going into the offseason, the Clippers were prepared to make massive moves.
As it would turn out, massive moves are exactly what the Clippers ended up doing. They cashed in all their trade assets to pry Paul George from the Thunder, instigating their rebuild. Almost immediately afterward, Kawhi Leonard announced he was signing with the Clippers in free agency. A smaller but also important move, they re-signed defensive dog, Patrick Beverley. Almost immediately, the Clippers vaunted all the way to title favorites for next season.
It’s not hard to see what makes the Clippers the title favorites and a clear top seed in the West. Between George, Leonard, and Beverley, opposing offenses are going to be locked up in a vault and thrown into the nearby bay. Offensively, they’ve got plenty of options as well between Leonard, George, and 6th man Lou Williams. The only thing keeping the Clippers from contending for the one seed is the health of George and Leonard. George is scheduled to miss up to the first six weeks following offseason surgery, while Leonard will probably be on a load management program all season like the one seen in Toronto.
Third Seed – Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers had the season from hell last year. Despite getting LeBron James in free agency, General Manager Rob Pelinka and President Magic Johnson did a terrible job surrounding him with non-shooters. To make things worse, James suffered a groin injury in December, making him look mortal for the first time in his career. The nail in the coffin for the season, a botched attempt to trade for Anthony Davis that alienated the young players in the locker room. Ultimately, the Lakers would miss the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.
What has been a bleak era in Lakers fandom may be coming to an end. They were able to complete the aforementioned trade for Davis, pairing James with one of the best players in the league. Though they missed on landing Leonard, they did well pivoting and filling out the roster. Danny Green, Troy Daniels, and Quinn Cook are all competent shooters. Dwight Howard gives the Lakers a presence in the paint. Avery Bradley is a competent perimeter defender. It’s not an overly deep roster, but it’s serviceable.
When a team employs arguably two of the best five players in the league, serviceable can be just fine. So long as there’s shooting and some defense around James and Davis, the Lakers will rack up wins. In a weird way, missing the playoffs may have been good for James in that he’ll have his first full summer of rest after going to eight straight finals. So long as Davis and James can keep their games missed minimized, a three seed should be realistic for the Lakers.
Fourth Seed – Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets had a rollercoaster of a season last year. After digging themselves into a hole amidst some early season lethargy and injury to Chris Paul, James Harden took over in December. He delivered one of the great offensive performances, lifting the Rockets back into the playoffs. In the Semi-Finals the Rockets had a chance to finally overcome the Warriors but couldn’t capitalize, their season coming to an end.
Their offseason wasn’t all that spectacular at first. Following George’s trade, the Thunder and Russell Westbrook agreed to part ways. The Rockets seized the chance to trade Paul for Westbrook, reuniting Westbrook and Harden for the first time since their days on the Thunder. Outside of that, the Rockets mainly re-signed a number of their players like Austin Rivers and Gerald Green.
Though it’s not a perfect fit, Westbrook and Harden are still superstar players that have a history playing off each other. Westbrook will need to make some adjustments to his game to play in head coach Mike D’Antoni’s system, such as picking his spots and deferring more to Harden. The rest of the roster provides a good mix of defense and shooting. Harden will almost certainly turn in an MVP-level performance from the offensive side. A four seed seems realistic given the talent and fit.
Fifth Seed – Utah Jazz
One of the West’s middle-tier teams for years, the Utah Jazz continued on that path last season. Rudy Gobert held it down in the paint and won another defensive player of the year award. Donovan Mitchell was amazing, though he didn’t do much to build on his incredible rookie season. The Jazz finished as the fifth seed, bowing out against the Rockets in the first round.
Though mostly under the radar, the Jazz had a great offseason. They acquired Mike Conley from the Memphis Grizzlies, giving Mitchell the kind of back-court partner he’s needed. Additionally, the Jazz signed Bojan Bogdanovic, a capable forward from the Indiana Pacers. Add in Jeff Green and Emmanuel Mudiay and the Jazz significantly improved their roster.
The Jazz are set to not only make the playoffs but potentially go on a deep run. Defenses won’t be able to sag off Conley to help defend Mitchell. Bogdanovic gives them another spot-up shooter and scorer, while Joe Ingles provides shooting and playmaking. Gobert will ensure the defense is elite. The fifth seed seems a given, watch the Jazz challenge the teams ahead of them for better seeding.
Sixth Seed – Portland Trail Blazers
Perennially overlooked, the Portland Trail Blazers have been playoff mainstays for years. Last year was the same, with the Blazers making the playoffs as the three seed. Despite losing center Jusuf Nurkic right before the playoffs, the Blazers still overcame the Thunder and then Nuggets to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Though they were swept by the Warriors, the Blazers still showed the NBA why they should be respected.
The offseason saw the Blazers try to shore up their holes and run back most of their pieces. They gave superstar point guard Damian Lillard a four year, $196 million contract to ensure he’ll stay in Portland for quite a while. They also re-signed Rodney Hood, who had shown to be a capable scorer. Lastly, they brought in Hassan Whiteside as a stopgap at center until Nurkic can return from injury.
As the upper tier of the West gets stronger, the Blazers will be pushed to make the playoffs again. Whiteside is a great replacement at center, but as any Heat fan will attest, he’ll cost them some games as well. Still, the Blazers have Lillard and CJ McCollum, as well as an experienced head coach and roster. They’ve proved they should at least make the playoffs at sixth.
Seventh Seed – Golden State Warriors
The third year of the Durant era for the Golden State Warriors was business as usual. The top seed in the West, and a fifth straight NBA Finals appearance. The Finals against the Toronto Raptors wasn’t business as usual. Injuries to Durant and Klay Thompson proved too much for the Warriors’ top-heavy roster to handle, the team falling to the Raptors in six games.
The Warriors offseason was one of goods and bads. Durant opted to instead play for the Brooklyn Nets, bringing back All-Star D’Angelo Russell in a sign-and-trade. As a result of the sign-and-trade, the Warriors also lost the services of Andre Iguodala. Shaun Livingston retired, leaving the Warriors without a backup point guard. They did re-sign Thompson to a max deal, ensuring their original core three will remain. Re-signing Kevon Looney was a no-brainer given how pivotal he was during their recent playoff run.
The big problem heading into next season is the absence of Thompson. Head Coach Steve Kerr recently said Thompson is likely out next season. As such, the Warriors will have to depend on Russell to help Curry shoulder the scoring load. Given Russell’s propensity towards pick-and-roll, which the Warriors rarely run, there are serious concerns if he’ll gel with them. Curry will have to turn in an all-time offensive performance, which we know he’s capable of, to keep the Warriors in the playoffs. The Warriors have been severely depleted, but still, have the championship pedigree to make the playoffs at seventh.
Eighth Seed – San Antonio Spurs
In the wake of the Leonard trade and the injury to Dejounte Murray, things seemed bleak for the San Antonio Spurs. A slow start out the gate had some saying the Spurs playoff streak was coming to an end. Behind a midrange attack from DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs rebounded and made the playoffs at the seventh seed. Once there, they pushed a young Nuggets team to seven games before bowing out. Derrick White emerged in the playoffs as someone that could be seeing more minutes the following season.
The Spurs offseason was a quiet one. Their biggest moves were arguably re-signing Rudy Gay and DeMarre Carroll. Both are veteran role players that don’t do much to move the needle towards contention. The Spurs are mainly counting on internal development and the return of Murray and Lonnie Walker from injury.
There are several teams contending for the last playoff spot, including the Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, and Sacramento Kings. The common theme in those four teams, though, is their youth and inexperience. The Spurs have a good mix of youth and veteran leadership, as well as the benefit of having Gregg Popovich as their head coach. The Spurs have made the playoffs a record 22 times, it’d be hard to say the streak ends there.
2019-2020 Western Conference Playoffs Predictions – First Round
With the seeding finally decided, let’s take a look at how these matchups go.
There’s a rematch between the Nuggets and Spurs to start things off. Last year, the Spurs capitalized on the Nugget’s lack of playoff experience to push it to seven games and almost take the series. This time, the Nuggets are coming in with a few playoff series already under their belt and better than they were last year. Don’t expect them to struggle, Nuggets in five, mainly because the Spurs are too proud to be swept.
The Clippers vs. Warriors will be a showing for the rest of the league how deadly the Clippers are in the playoffs. Curry and Russell will make for a high scoring backcourt, but they’ll struggle against the Clippers’ three-headed leviathan of Leonard, Beverley, and George. With their primary offensive weapons nullified, the Warriors won’t have anywhere else to turn. Clippers in five.
The third matchup between the Lakers and Blazers will be a quick affair. Last time the Blazers saw Davis, he was torturing them in a sweep. Nurkic, and certainly Whiteside, can’t defend him. Additionally, the Blazers don’t have anymore that can defend James. The Blazers will have to rely on outscoring the Lakers, but don’t count on that being successful. Lakers in four.
The last matchup of the first round is between the Rockets and Jazz, which has been a The Jazz are much better equipped for the playoffs now, while the Rockets have Westbrook. One of the lessons learned over the last few years is how poorly Westbrook’s game translates to the playoffs. While he helped them rack up a lot of regular-season wins, Westbrook becomes the Achilles heel for the Rockets, costing them this series and giving the Jazz the win in six games.
2019-2020 Western Conference Playoffs Predictions – Semi-Finals
The first round saw one slight upset, but otherwise, the top seeds advanced. The Semi-Finals are an entirely different story, with four elite teams duking it out.
The Nuggets versus the Jazz is an interesting matchup. It features two of the youngest stars in the NBA in Jokic and Mitchell. Both teams are deep with plenty of shooters, young players, and veteran experience. The Nuggets are a little more offensive focused, while the Jazz are a little more defensive focus, which always makes for interesting games.
The key here will be Gobert guarding Jokic. Gobert is the kind of long, athletic center that can give Jokic problems trying to score inside while contesting his shot on the perimeter. Jokic will almost certainly pull Gobert out to the perimeter but doesn’t have the quickness to properly punish Gobert for stepping out. With Gobert that far from the rim, and Jokic’s elite passing, the Nuggets will have a field day cutting to the rim for layups. This slight edge will decide the matchup, with the Nuggets winning in seven.
The other Semi-Final matchup is the conclusion of the famed battle for LA. Between George, Leonard, Davis, and James, this series will have enough big names on one court to make this a series for the ages. Every game is a home game for both teams, though most likely the Lakers fans will take over the arena.
The deciding factor in this matchup will be the two elite defenders the Clippers can throw at James. Both Leonard and George have experience successfully defending James and can take turns doing so to weaken the Laker’s point of attack. Davis will still get his, but that’s fine so long as James is having trouble. It’ll be close, but the Clippers will prevail in seven games.
2019-2020 Western Conference Playoffs Predictions – Finals
The Western Conference Finals will be between the first seed Nuggets and the second seed Clippers. One versus two matchups aren’t usually surprising but definitely earned considering the gauntlet the teams had to go through to get here.
It’ll be a great matchup between two West powerhouses with potent offenses and defenses. The common theme for the Clippers has been their defense, but this time they don’t have a defender with the size to properly guard Jokic. Instead, they’ll use their defenders to hound everyone around Jokic, cutting off his passing and forcing him to be just a scorer. Jokic can certainly rack up points, so it’s not ideal, but it’s the better alternative.
On the other end, the Clippers will put Jokic to the test in their dreaded Williams – Montrezl Harrell pick-and-roll, forcing Jokic to make smart reads. Jokic has made great strides on the defensive end but this will be a test of the highest caliber. This also doesn’t include George and Leonard, who’ll torture the younger defenders the Nuggets will use on them. Ultimately, the Nuggets are still probably a year away and fall to the Clippers in six games.
The Finals matchup, then, will be between the Los Angeles Clippers from the West and the Philadelphia 76ers from the East. The 76ers have Joel Embiid to bludgeon the Clippers, but also have Ben Simmons and his terrible jumpshot. With Simmons and Embiid clogging the paint, the 76ers offense won’t be as effective against the Clippers elite defense. The Clippers win the NBA Finals in six games.
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