A transition to a power conference shouldn’t be this simple, but the ACC is no ordinary power conference. Led by guard Kevin “Boopie” Miller and star freshman center Samet Yigitoglu, SMU sits at 20-6 overall with an 11-4 record in their debut season following a thrashing of Notre Dame on Wednesday night. In most seasons, that would make the Mustangs a lock for the NCAA Tournament. However, the weak ACC plus a historically dominant SEC makes their chances smaller. There are arguments that SMU should make the tournament and ones that are just as strong against the Mustangs. So, what are SMU’s tournament chances? Is there a reasonable path for SMU to make the tournament?
SMU’s Tournament Chances in Strong ACC Debut Season
The Argument in Favor of SMU
In a time where metrics play such an important role, SMU has good enough metric rankings. Remember, 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, but about 22-25 go to automatic qualifiers; this leaves 43-46 spots for the top teams in basketball. SMU is ranked 38th in the NET, a number that makes the tournament more often than not. They also rank 38th in KenPom and 38th in WAB(wins against bubble), which quantifies how a given team has performed in comparison to how a typical NCAA Tournament bubble team would perform with their schedule. Their SOR(strength of record) also sits at 41st. Their metrics don’t give them much leeway, but they sit around that bubble, with most metrics saying they deserve to be in the field.
SMU’s tournament chances also depend on their ability to win games. They are 20-6 overall, but they have an impressive 9-2 record in games away from their home floor. Not only do they win games, but they’ve also found ways to win games outside of Dallas, something they will be forced to do in the NCAA Tournament. Teams finish with great home records all the time, but struggling on the road often exposes their true colors. You can’t play at home in the tournament, so why reward teams who have a losing record on the road when a team like SMU is 9-2 away from home, including 6-2 in true road games?
The Argument Against SMU
SMU’s tournament chances take a huge hit from their non-conference schedule. Their NET SOS in the non-conference was 254th. They defeated LSU on a neutral floor but fell to Butler on the road, a team that has since struggled to survive in the Big East. Having a non-conference SOS over 250 is not as big of a problem if you go undefeated. However, don’t forget that Clemson and Pitt both recently missed the tournament because of their non-conference SOS. Losing 2 games hurts, especially when your resume lacks the quality wins required to boost a resume.
That leads directly to the second main argument against them: few quality wins. Here are SMU’s six losses: at Butler; Mississippi State; Duke; at North Carolina; Louisville; and Wake Forest. Here are SMU’s best wins: Pitt and LSU(neutral). There is nothing wrong with the losses, but they lack the quality wins. An NCAA Tournament bubble team won’t get in often, with their best win being at home against a team like Pitt. They sit at 0-4 against Q1 opponents in the NET and 5-6 combined against Q1/Q2. They won’t make the tournament with no Q1 wins.
SMU’s Tournament Chances: How to Solidify Their Spot
SMU’s tournament chances depend on their biggest game of the season on Saturday against Clemson. The Q1 home opportunity gives them the chance to add that statement win they’ve been missing throughout the season. After that, SMU needs to win each of their last four games regardless of the outcome. A loss to any of those teams, California, Stanford, Syracuse, or Florida State, would likely ruin any chances of making the tournament without an ACC title.
SMU needs to keep winning. Their entire resume relies on their wins despite their strength of schedule. If they go 5-0 to finish the season, they need to avoid a bad loss in the ACC tournament. A loss to a team like North Carolina or Wake Forest wouldn’t help, as they are also bubble teams. If they finish 4-1, they likely would need to win two games in the ACC tournament, one to avoid a bad loss and one to get a good win. The margins for a bubble team are so small. If they reach 24 wins, they’ll miss the tournament. 25 wins would depend on who they beat and lose to. 26 wins would likely find them in the NCAA Tournament. SMU’s tournament chances rely on wins, so that’s exactly what the Mustangs need to keep doing if they want a chance.
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