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Clippers vs Nuggets Series Prediction Roundtable
The 213 Hoops Staff got together to give their final predictions for the Clippers’ first round series against the Nuggets.
Lucas Hann: Clippers in 6
I’m going confident with this one. The Clippers and Nuggets finished tied in the regular season, and split the season series 2-2–but there’s no doubt who has been better over the last month of basketball, with the Nuggets sliding in the standings and firing their head coach and GM while the Clippers have surged, going 18-3 in their last 21 games. Denver’s starting 5 of Murray, Braun, Porter Jr, Gordon, and Jokic is probably an even match with the Clippers’ best lineups, but Denver doesn’t have a single bench player the caliber of Bogdan Bogdanovic or Derrick Jones Jr or Nico Batum, meaning that LAC can rotate their top 8 guys while maintaining good lineups on the floor… and Denver should struggle to. Look for tight margins, especially early in the series, with Denver playing all 5 of their starters 40+ minutes. As knocks, foul trouble, and fatigue set in, I expect the Clippers to be able to withstand the attrition of a hard-fought series better than the Nuggets. It should be as contested of a series as you’d expect between two teams with identical regular season records and a split head-to-head record, so I wouldn’t be surprised if things broke Denver’s way and they were able to emerge, but I truly feel like the Clippers are entering the series in a stronger position.
Niels Pineda: Clippers in 6
It’s obviously always a tough choice to bet against the best player in the world, but on that same side of the equation is a bad defense. The Nuggets pathway to victory requires winning a shootout here, but with the combination of Harden’s methodical pace setting and LAC’s suffocating defense, I’m hard pressed to think Denver will be able to make it one.
On the Clippers side of things, they’ll likely have the 2nd and 3rd best players after Jokic, and it’s also very easy to see them having the better depth. When you stack up all of these factors on top of a significantly better defense, I’m cautiously optimistic that they’ll be able to take this one home in a VERY hard fought series.
Erik Olsgaard: Clippers in 7
On paper the Clippers match-up far better with the Nuggets than the Nuggets with the Clippers—particularly on the defensive end, where the Nuggets sport the only bottom-10 defense in the Western Conference playoffs. The Clippers can throw elite defensive guards like Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. at Jamal Murray. And Ivica Zubac is one of the better defensive options on Nikola Jokic in the NBA not named Wemby (one that will also put plenty of offensive pressure on Jokic). Meanwhile, the Nuggets will have trouble finding enough legitimate defenders to guard all three of James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Norman Powell at the same time, without giving up a lot on offense. The Clippers also just have a far deeper bench, when healthy, and with Nic Batum on the cusp of returning the Clippers are nearly whole. Denver also just fired their head coach, so they may find themselves missing Mike Malone’s experience in the playoff chess battle. But even with all of those things being true, I can’t bring myself to count out Jokic. He’s still probably the best and most consistent individual offensive player in the league, and one who’s become a far bigger three point threat than any year previously. He could single-handedly will the Nuggets to three wins in this series. Just not four.
Shapan Debnath: Clippers in 6
I respect Nikola Jokic a lot. He’s the best player in basketball, and that carries a lot of weight in a best of 7 series, so I anticipate this going long rather than short because of him. But I think the Clippers have a ton of looks to attack Denver on offense and are very well equipped to defend them on the other end. With Aaron Gordon defending Kawhi Leonard, there should be a nice trickledown effect to set up James Harden for success against a vulnerable Denver PnR defense. Denver has eaten up the Clippers with the Murray/Jokic two man game, but the Clippers have heavily upgraded their point of attack defense this year, & Murray is already a bit banged up. Couple that with Denver’s depth being as thin as it’s been in years, with way too much riding on old friend Russell Westbrook’s shoulders, and you have a ton of reasons to like the Clippers in this matchup. Just give them the health to prove us right or wrong.
Robert Flom: Nuggets in 7
Logically, the Clippers should win this series. They have played better than the Nuggets over the second half of the season. They have a deeper roster than the Nuggets. They have some nice matchup advantages and more looks to throw at the Nuggets than vice versa. But something vibes wise feels off to me, I think mostly just because things have been going so, so well for the Clippers – and they never seem to stay that way. The Nuggets have the best player in the series by a healthy margin, and while the Nuggets defense is bad, I think they actually match up ok with the Clippers, with Norm Powell needing to have a big series to really punish Jamal Murray. Maybe this is just an emotional hedge, but I just keep returning to the Nuggets pulling out the win here. Hopefully I’m wrong, and I think the Clippers have a very good chance of winning this series. It just doesn’t seem like a Clippers thing to have happen, and it’s tough for me to move past the failures of the past three years.
Cole Huff: Clippers in 7
Of all the realistic first-round opponents, Denver felt like maybe the most preferred for the Clippers, which seems crazy to say given that the Nuggets roster the best player in the world and retain mostly the same nucleus from a team less than two years removed from a championship. Yet, the Nuggets’ coaching shakeup, questionable bench, and inconsistent defense are enough swing factors to lead me to liking the Clippers’ chances more, on top of LAC being one of the best teams in the league over the last month. Nikola Jokic is great enough to make this a long series, but I think this is the best Clippers team we’ve seen in this era, and they will ultimately have exorcised some demons by the time this one is all said and done.
Clippers vs Nuggets Series Prediction Roundtable
Robert Flom