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Clippers to Sign Bradley Beal in Free Agency
Well, after two weeks of rumors, Shams Charania announced today that the Clippers will sign Bradley Beal to a two-year, $11M (with a player option on the second year) deal after he completes his buyout with the Suns. Beal will earn back some of his buyout money and get a chance to earn another bag in free agency next year if he balls out for the Clippers, while the Clippers get a veteran scorer on a cheap deal.
Beal just turned 32 and is entering his 14th year in the NBA after 11 seasons with the Wizards and two with the Suns. A three-time All Star, Beal’s tenure with the Suns was a disastrous one, ending with one of the largest buyouts in NBA history. But what about his fit with the Clippers? Especially considering that all of the initial reporting is that Beal will be starting at shooting guard for the Clippers, replacing the departed Norm Powell.
Beal is not fully washed. He’s not the same player he was five years ago, but he averaged 17.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.3 assists across his 106 games in Phoenix while shooting 50.5% from the field, 40.7% from three (4.7 attempts), and 80.8% from the line (2.6 attempts). He’s still a capable three-level scorer, and is as tough to guard as anyone in the NBA when he gets hot. While not as good off-ball as he was early in his career, Beal did play a lot off the ball alongside Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, and will be in a similar situation with the Clippers playing off James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. At the same time, he offers a dynamism with the ball in his hands that nobody else on the Clippers can match. On offense, despite some worries about “too many mouths to feed” (which is valid, more on that later), Beal seems like a clean fit.
Comparing Beal to Norm Powell is interesting. All of the advanced stats would say Norm was a (significantly) better player than Beal last year, despite Beal’s pedigree. Norm scored more, shot better from three while taking more threes, and got to the line more. Norm was simply a significantly more reliable and deadly scorer than Beal. Both are bad defenders, with Beal being a bit larger and sturdier than Norm, and Norm probably being somewhat quicker at this stage. Beal, while not an amazing rebounder, is stronger on the glass than Norm, which is nice. Most importantly, Beal is a far, far better playmaker for others, capable of truly running an offense at times and operating in the pick-and-roll as a passer in a way Norm could never do consistently. Thus, the Clippers are losing some scoring punch, but are getting a somewhat more well-rounded player in return.
Beal’s availability is also a matter of concern. In the past six years he’s played in 57, 60, 40, 50, 53, and 53 games. Even with the first two of those being COVID-shortened seasons, that’s a tough track record. That said, if there’s a roster where availability doesn’t matter a ton (even with Kawhi’s availability being an issue as well), it’s the Clippers, who have several players that can fill in Beal’s spot in the starting lineup in a number of different ways – Bogdan Bogdanovic as the cleanest skillset replacement, Derrick Jones Jr. for an athleticism upgrade, and Kris Dunn as the defensive floor raiser. If both Beal and Kawhi are out, the Clippers will still have some scoring options alongside Harden in Ivica Zubac and John Collins. And, if Harden is out, then the Clippers will have a semi-feasible short-term fill-in with Beal’s ball-handling and playmaking.
I think the overall rotation and lineup decisions that Beal’s arrival (and seemingly likely starting) foists upon Ty Lue are a bit more challenging. Harden-Beal-Kawhi-Zu are going to be locked in, which is a ton of scoring but also a lot of guys who want the ball, and not a huge amount of defense or role-playing connective pieces. John Collins seemed like the starting power forward when the Clippers traded for him, and he does add some much needed size and athleticism. But if the Clippers start Collins, their perimeter defense will be severely lacking. Jones Jr. and Dunn are two other potential starting options, and would solve the perimeter defense issue, but would create further deficiencies for size and rebounding. The bench rotation would also be a bit fouled up either way, as if Collins start, both Dunn and DJJ will come off the bench, which offers some redundancies, whereas if Collins comes off the pine, the Batum-Collins-Lopez frontcourt would look mighty slow. Staggering players will help, of course, but Ty Lue will have his hands full figuring everything out.
Honestly, I think my biggest concern with the Beal signing is chemistry. The Clippers won last year through defense and chemistry – everyone on the team seemed to get along and they just seemed like a together bunch that was rowing in the right direction. Beal, while not a notable malcontent, was unhappy in Phoenix last year with his role and his effort took a notable hit. The Suns were a miserable group last year, and winning cures a lot of concerns, so I’m not too worried, but I don’t think he’ll get more touches or a larger role in LA than he had in Phoenix. There have also been rumors of Beal being a less-than-stellar teammate going back to his time in Washington. Hopefully the chance to revitalize his career on a good team with veteran teammates is enough to keep Beal happy and pulling alongside everyone else. Still, the team’s overall spirit is something I will be keeping a close eye on – even without Beal’s potential issues, it’s tough to have great chemistry two years in a row.
The Clippers’ free agency is not over, even though this is likely the last big move they’ll make this summer. After all, the Clippers only have 13 roster spots filled, and while they usually prefer to leave one open, that still leaves one spot to fill. The Clippers’ depth chart is quite well filled out, with 10 clear top rotation players followed by the young guys (Cam Christie, Kobe Brown, Yanic Konan Niederhauser) and two-ways (Trentyn Flowers, Kobe Sanders, Patrick Baldwin Jr.). Their 14th spot could just be filled by Jordan Miller, but my guess is the Clippers sign another veteran instead. Rumors have swirled around Chris Paul, but he’d be outside the Clippers’ current rotation, and my guess is he wants to play a real role on a team. Still, I’d expect the Clippers to make a minor move or two in the coming weeks.
Overall, I think this is a fine signing for the Clippers. Beal has his warts in terms of availability, fit, and attitude, but he is an upgrade over some ways in Norm Powell, and even if you prefer Norm in a vacuum, adding in the John Collins piece means the Clippers are a more talented team than they were last season. Fingers crossed that the team that looks like a fairly competitive Western Conference heavyweight on paper turns out to be one in actuality in three months when the season starts.