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Clippers 2024-2025 Player Preview: Kawhi Leonard

October 7, 2024 by 213 Hoops

213hoops.com
Clippers 2024-2025 Player Preview: Kawhi Leonard

Our player preview series for the 2025 Clippers continues with Kawhi Leonard, the team’s oft-injured superstar.

Basic Information

Height: 6’7

Weight: 225 pounds

Position: Power forward/Small forward

Age: 33

Years in NBA: 13

Regular Season Stats: 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.8 turnovers in 34.3 minutes per game across 68 games played (all starts) on 52.5/41.7/88.5 shooting splits with 62.6% TS

Playoff Stats: 12.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.0 turnovers in 29.5 minutes per game across 2 games played (both starts) on 45.8/0/66.7 shooting splits with 47.4% TS

Contract Status: Signed a three year, $153M extension in January, making $53M this year

Expectations

What even are reasonable expectations for Kawhi Leonard at this point? On one hand, the 2024 season was somewhat of a triumph for Kawhi, who played 68 regular games (his most since 2017) while logging 34.3 minutes per game (the highest of his career) and making the All-NBA Second Team and All Star Game. On the other hand, he was forced out of the end of the regular season due to knee troubles, and barely played in the playoffs at 50% capacity as a result. He had a knee scope this summer, and basically all reporting is indicating he will be back on load management.

Can Kawhi play 60 games at 30+ minutes per game again? At this point, that honestly sounds like a major win for the Clippers. If he does, can he maintain an All-NBA level of play over that extended stretch? That would be massive. The Clippers no longer have Paul George, their depth is not quite as good as it was years ago, and the West has gotten better. If the Clippers don’t get that durability and level of play from Kawhi, they very well might not make the postseason – even if he would be healthy enough to play in it. I think a fair expectation for Kawhi is 55-60 games at an All Star and fringe All NBA level. In this bloggers’ opinion, anything more than that is gravy.

Strengths

It’s a bit wild to say, but after starting his career as an offensively-limited, defense-first player, Kawhi Leonard’s best skill in the NBA right now is his scoring. Not counting his injury-shortened 2018 campaign, Kawhi has averaged at least 21 points per game in each of his last seven seasons and at least 23.5 in his last six. Not only that, but Kawhi scores at volume on excellent efficiency, with only one true shoointg in those seven years being below 60%. He’s a deadly long-range shooter (40.2% on 5.1 attempts as a Clipper), knockdown from midrange, and a strong finisher. The only area where Kawhi is slipping is as a foul-drawer, as his free throw rate of 0.24 last year was his lowest since he made the jump to a legitimate scorer back in 2015. Even if he does get to the line less, there’s no reason Kawhi can’t continue to average 20+ points per game on good efficiency for the next couple of years.

Kawhi is nowhere close to the defensive force he was a decade ago in San Antonio, when some people considered him the best perimeter defender to ever suit up in the NBA. However, he’s still a good defensive player on a game-to-game basis and is considerably better than that for shorter stretches when he can really lock in. Kawhi’s size, length, strength, and disruptive hands are all unchanged, making him a real presence both as a one-on-one defender against wings and forwards and as the “low man” in help situations. When Kawhi was on the court last year, the Clippers were a top five defense and when he was off they were in the bottom five. That says a lot about the impact he continues to have on that end.

Weaknesses

Kawhi’s biggest weakness is undoubtedly durability. As mentioned above, last season was his healthiest regular season since 2017, and even before his leg injuries picked up he only played over 70 games twice. With Kawhi unlikely to play in back-to-backs this year, he will be capped at around 68 games, and that’s not counting missing any other games for injuries, illness, or personal reasons. Your best player being your most unreliable in terms of availability creates a very difficult path for building a team or winning a championship, and ultimately that was the downfall of the 213 era (among other reasons).

If you had to point to one Kawhi weakness on the court, it would be that he’s a subpar playmaker for a number one scoring option. His highest ever assists per game mark was in 2021, at 5.2, and he averaged just 3.6 last year. With Paul George and Russell Westbrook gone that number will definitely go back up, but Kawhi is definitely more of a fine passer than a good one. There will be times he sees passes a hair too late or doesn’t make the read at all. He’s definitely not a ball hog or an awful passer, but it’s just not a natural part of his game, even though he’s worked on it.

Summary

There is no evidence that the Clippers have ever tried to
trade Kawhi, nor has there been any real evidence that Kawhi has looked at
leaving the Clippers. With Kawhi under contract for three more seasons and his
probable lack of trade value even if he or the Clippers wanted to move on, it’s
hard to see him not being on the Clippers through 2025. After that, who knows –
but Kawhi has won two championships already, and this might be the first season
in his entire 14-year career that he’s not on a contending team, so being on a
contender might not mean quite as much to him. I would guess Kawhi plays out
the year with the Clippers, and I’d bet on him being a Clipper until he
retires. Hopefully he’s able to play in a good chunk of games this season and
plays at the level we have all come to expect from him, pushing back on the narrative
that his career is “cooked”.

Clippers 2024-2025 Player Preview: Kawhi Leonard
Robert Flom

Filed Under: Clippers

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