After a grueling seven-game battle against the Clippers, the Nuggets now face what almost feels like a cruel reward: a second-round showdown with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, favorites to come out of the Western Conference and fresh off a dominant sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies.
This is the price you pay for underachieving in the regular season. And it’s why most analysts are picking OKC to win this Nuggets/Thunder series. On paper, it makes sense. OKC is deeper, younger, and hungry after last year’s disappointing playoff exit to the Mavericks, and led by this season’s likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Make no mistake: this will be a massive challenge. But the Nuggets should take confidence in having just beaten a team that, in many ways, mirrors the Thunder. Like the Clippers, OKC has roster versatility, a deep bench, and the ability to adapt on the fly depending on the matchups. Let’s dive into why the Nuggets can pull off an upset.
Can the Nuggets Beat the Thunder in this Series?
Being the underdog is nothing new for the Nuggets. Analysts widely picked the surging Clippers to knock out Denver in the first round, and even during their 2023 title run, few viewed them as the dominant force they eventually became. So why fear OKC now? If the Nuggets play up to their potential, they should have the best player on the floor, arguably the league’s top second option, and a pair of elite wing defenders who can make life miserable for opposing stars. Add to that a former MVP and Thunder franchise icon in Russell Westbrook bringing energy off the bench, and suddenly the matchup doesn’t look nearly as favorable for Oklahoma City.
Nikola Jokic Needs to be the Best Player on the Floor
The showdown between the two MVP frontrunners will likely decide this Nuggets/Thunder series. OKC may have more depth, just like the Clippers did, but ultimately, this battle comes down to which star shines the brightest. In the first round, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard had some spectacular moments, but Nikola Jokic delivered the most consistent performances overall.
Maintaining that advantage against SGA will be much harder. Jokic has likely already lost this year’s MVP—deservedly—to the Canadian guard, but many still consider him the best player in the world. Now he has to prove it.
The Clippers challenged him with creative defenses, including a small-ball lineup that gave him some issues. The Thunder will almost certainly try the same tactics. Jokic must punish those mismatches and assert himself when Oklahoma City decides to put an undersized player as his primary defender.
When they go with their two bigman lineup with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren trying to replicate the success of the Timberwolves’ twin tower lineup of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert during last years playoffs, well there is a reason why the Serbian ranked in the top 20 for three-point percentage this season— he knows better than anyone how to effectively beat this scheme, he simply needs to stretch the floor and make them pay. It’s up to Jokic to show that the same strategy won’t work against him two years in a row.
Discipline Will Be Everything to Beat the Thunder
SGA presents a different level of offensive threat than even Leonard or Harden in the previous series. He’s a hybrid of both—combining Kawhi’s midrange mastery with a level of playmaking that, while not on Harden’s level, is still highly effective. The Nuggets struggled defensively in their losses to the Clippers, particularly in containing the opposition stars.
And that wasn’t because Aaron Gordon or Christian Braun weren’t up to the task—Gordon especially played at an All-Defensive level at times. The real issue was the Nuggets’ perimeter low resistance switching, which too often handed the opposing stars their preferred matchups, usually targeting Jamal Murray. Despite his improved defense in recent years, Murray simply lacks the size, strength, and defensive IQ to contain elite scorers. His discipline can also be lackluster, clearly evident when he repeatedly allowed Harden to drive to his preferred left side, which allowed him to continually hurt the Nuggets.
Against SGA, those kinds of breakdowns will be punished even more harshly. You could argue that SGA’s slighter frame and smaller size make him a better matchup for Murray than Kawhi or Harden, but based on what we’ve seen so far in the playoffs, it would be optimistic to assume that Murray can stay disciplined enough to hold his own against the 2025 MVP.
No More Jordan—It’s Peyton Watson Time
As always, the non-Jokic minutes will be pivotal. Managing those stretches without their superstar on the floor has been a long-standing challenge for Denver. In the Clippers series, there was some logic in matching DeAndre Jordan with Ivica Zubac, but the results were underwhelming at best.
Against the Thunder, who don’t feature a traditional post-up big, small-ball should be the way forward for the bench lineups. Denver must lean into a defensive identity in those minutes. Coach David Adelman should strongly consider playing Gordon or Peyton Watson at the five, enabling the Nuggets to switch everything and neutralize OKC’s offense. How well the Nuggets manage the non-Jokic minutes will be a key factor for the Nuggets to beat the Thunder.
Let the Thunder’s Supporting Cast Prove They Are Ready for the Moment
Looking back at last year’s series against the Mavericks, the reason they fell short was definitely not their star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In fact, he was the most consistent player on the floor, especially with Luka Doncic battling lingering injuries and facing Lu Dort, arguably the best perimeter defender in the league.
The real letdown came from Oklahoma City’s supporting cast. Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace all underperformed in the playoffs last year. But that was a year ago. Since then, the Thunder’s young stars—especially Holmgren and Williams—have taken major steps forward and look better than ever.
Still, growth in the regular season doesn’t guarantee playoff success. They have yet to prove they can rise to the moment in a high-pressure series against a championship-caliber team like the Nuggets. Denver’s supporting cast has taken its share of criticism this year, but in the Clippers series, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun all elevated their games. Even Michael Porter Jr., battling through a shoulder injury, played with grit and resilience.
This Denver core has already proven it can win a title. Now, it’s on the Thunder’s young core to show they’re ready to beat a team that’s been there and won it all together. One thing is clear: this Nuggets-Thunder series will be an absolute must-watch.
Featured image: © Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
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