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2026 NBA Season Preview: Southwest Division
My preview for the 2026 NBA season continues with the Southwest Division, home to several very intriguing teams as well as the Pelicans.
Houston Rockets
Additions: Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, Josh Okogie
Subtractions: Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jock Landale, Cam Whitmore, Nate Williams Jr.
Other: Re-signed Jae’Sean Tate, Re-signed Aaron Holiday, Re-signed Jeff Green
Outlook: No team in the NBA made a clearer upgrade at a rotation spot than the Rockets, who dumped an inefficient, inconsistent, ball-stopping scorer in Jalen Green for Kevin Durant. The Rockets were an excellent defensive team last year that struggled on offense, and while KD won’t fix that issue himself, his electric scoring and shooting will make a huge difference. The Rockets not only added KD and other veterans, but can count on likely improvements from young players like Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason as well. The Rockets might still be a tad short on ball-handling and playmaking, but they are going to be a nightmare to play against on a nightly basis and should be a monster regular season team.
Prediction: 56-26 (Last year predicted 43-39, actually 52-30)
Dallas Mavericks
Additions: Cooper Flagg (1st pick in 2025 Draft), D’Angelo Russell
Subtractions: Olivier Maxence-Prosper, Kessler Edwards
Other: Extended Kyrie Irving, Extended PJ Washington, Re-signed Daniel Gafford, Re-signed Dante Exum
Outlook: In my opinion, the Mavericks are one of the hardest teams to predict in the entire NBA. This is not just because there’s a looming question of when Kyrie Irving (their best scorer, ballhandler, and playmaker) might return. It’s also because the Mavericks got Cooper Flagg 1st in the draft, and while Flagg is awesome, rookies are very, very rarely actually “good” in terms of helping teams win games. Flagg has the skillset to be one of those exceptions, as he’s extremely well-rounded and has an NBA body already. If Flagg pops right away, Anthony Davis stays healthy, and Kyrie returns towards the end of the season, the Mavs could be a 50+ win team. There is maybe an equally likely scenario where Davis is injured for long stretches, Flagg goes through typical rookie struggles, and Kyrie either doesn’t return or is only a shell of himself for the last handful of games. Splitting the difference, the Mavs will probably be competent, and I’d guess their record within a few games of .500.
Prediction: 44-38 (Last year predicted 51-31, actually 39-43)
Memphis Grizzlies
Additions: Ty Jerome, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cedric Coward (11th pick in 2025 Draft), Jock Landale
Subtractions: Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, Jay Huff, Lamar Stevens, Marvin Bagley
Other: Signed Jaren Jackson Jr. to a max extension, Re-signed Santi Aldama, Re-signed Cam Spencer
Outlook: After looking like an up-and-coming contender in 2022 and 2023, the Grizzlies backslid in 2024 and then plateaued last year. Accepting that the team was not where it needed to be, the Grizzlies made some massive changes, with their most significant move sending Desmond Bane to Orlando for a large haul of picks. The Grizzlies should still be decent this year – they have Ja Morant (when healthy), Jaren Jackson Jr., and a core of competent veterans with good depth – but the Bane trade was an admission that it was time to reload and plan for the longer term. If all breaks right for the Grizzlies, they’ll probably be a lower-end play-in team.
Prediction: 42-40 (Last year predicted 49-33, actually 48-34)
San Antonio Spurs
Additions: Dylan Harper (2nd pick in 2025 Draft), Carter Bryant (14th pick in 2025 Draft), Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan McLaughlin, Lindy Waters III
Subtractions: Chris Paul, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Blake Wesley, Malaki Branham, Charles Bassey
Other: Signed De’Aaron Fox to a max extension, Re-signed Bismack Biyombo
Outlook: The Spurs are in an interesting spot. Victor Wembanyama is the highest-upside young player in the NBA, a virtual lock for Defensive Player of the Year if healthy and a likely All-NBA nominee. Going into his third season, the Spurs should be in no rush. However, they did trade for Fox last season and signed him to a massively overpriced extension this summer. That speeds up the Spurs timetable a little, though Fox is young enough that it doesn’t put them in too much of a rush. Conversely, the Spurs got draft lottery luck, moving up the 2nd pick and selecting explosive guard Dylan Harper. There are some fit issues with Fox, Harper, and Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, but also a lot of talent. If Harper is really good right away, or if other young players besides Wemby take big steps forward, the Spurs could be an actual playoff team, but I think there’s not enough shooting or perimeter defense for them to get there this year.
Prediction: 39-43 (Last year predicted 31-51, actually 34-48)
New Orleans Pelicans
Additions: Jeremiah Fears (7th pick in 2025 Draft), Derik Queen (13th pick in 2025 Draft), Jordan Poole, Saddiq Bey, Kevon Looney, Jaden Springer, Jalen McDaniels
Subtractions: CJ McCollum, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Javonte Green, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Antonio Reeves, Lester Quinones
Other: Extended Herb Jones
Outlook: The Pelicans were one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA last year, with Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram all missing extended time before Ingram was traded at the deadline. The Pelicans further “blew up” their roster of the past few years by moving on from another mainstay, CJ McCollum, and bringing in the younger Poole. However, the Pelicans’ biggest offseason move was trading their first round pick in 2026 to move up 10 picks in the 2025 draft to select Derik Queen. While I like Queen and Fears just fine as prospects, the value of getting Queen was outrageously high even before accounting for Queen’s awful fit with Zion. The Poole, Bey, and Looney pick-ups are all fine enough, but between Zion’s health woes, poor roster fits, and general franchise misery, it’s tough to see the Pelicans being good this year.
Prediction: 27-55 (Last year predicted 46-36, actually 21-61)