213hoops.com
2024 NBA Draft by the Numbers: Big Men
The Clippers have been bad at drafting in recent years, and have particularly whiffed on big men. Mfiondu Kabengele at 27 in the 2019 Draft and Daniel Oturu at 33 in 2020 were both immense misses even at their range in the draft, and Moussa Diabate hasn’t provided anything as the 43rd pick in the 2022 Draft either.
That said, the Clippers could take another big man with the 46th pick in this draft. After all, their two backup centers last season, Mason Plumlee and Daniel Theis, are both free agents and don’t seem super likely to return. Kai Jones, who they signed at the tail end of 2024, has a team option for 2024-2025 that is non-guaranteed. Diabate, who has been on a two-way the past two seasons, is a restricted free agent. Thus, the only big man truly “on the roster” right now is starter Ivica Zubac.
However, I would be mildly surprised if the Clippers took a big at 46. Jones and Diabate seem fairly likely to be in the Clippers’ Summer League/Training Camp plans at the very least, and adding another young guy to the mix seems odd unless the Clippers are out on Jones and Diabate. Additionally, the Clippers have learned how important it is to have competent veteran backup center play, so even if one of Jones or Diabate pops in Summer League I’d guess the Clippers bring in another more experienced center as a deep reserve. All in all, the room is just probably going to be too crowded to warrant another big man pick. Let’s move into some stats!
The following explanation is a copy paste explanation of the stats and methodology from previous years. The numbers I compile for this are for college players only (no international, OTE, or G-League players included), and are per game, not per possession. In the NBA, per possession is a more useful stat, but when looking at college players, I feel like playing time is a bigger component – if you can’t play in college, you probably won’t play in the NBA. I also stopped at around number 60 on ESPN’s prospect list, as guys below that are unlikely to get picked even at 46. Finally, the numbers are averaged between the last two college seasons the players played, which can hurt some guys but can balance out outlier seasons.
| Players | Age | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TOPG | A:TO | FTM | 3PT | TS |
| Donovan Clingan | 20.4 | 10 | 6.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.111111 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.635 |
| Zach Edey | 22.1 | 23.8 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.782609 | 6.6 | 0 | 0.649 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 20.6 | 15.8 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.956522 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.553 |
| Kel’el Ware | 20.2 | 11.3 | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.833333 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.578 |
| Yvis Missi | 20.1 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.363636 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.622 |
| DaRon Holmes | 21.9 | 19.4 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2 | 2.3 | 0.956522 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.624 |
| Adem Bona | 21.3 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.526316 | 2.3 | 0 | 0.64 |
| Jonathan Mogbo | 22.6 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.388889 | 1.7 | 0 | 0.606 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 21.9 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.705882 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.62 |
| Isaac Jones | 23.9 | 17.3 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.842105 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 0.633 |
I have updated my database and models, and things have
changed somewhat. The most important stats for big men prospects (in comparing
college stats to advanced all-in-one numbers at the NBA level including WS/48,
VORP, and BPM to determine correlation) are age, assists, rebounds, blocks, and
true shooting, with turnovers also being somewhat relevant. It’s better for
prospects to be younger (makes sense) and have fewer turnovers (ditto) and for
all their counting stats to be higher (also checks out). Points, steals (this
is a big change, as years ago steals rated as the most important stat for bigs),
and three-point shooting don’t have a strong correlation to NBA success for big
men prospects in my models, but obviously matter when judging players. Here’s a
look at some prospects!
Best Prospects in Clippers’ Range
Oso Ighodaro – Ighodaro is a four-year senior from Marquette who made All Big East Second Team his last two seasons there. At 6’10, 235 pounds, he’s a solid size for an NBA big, though his 6’11 wingspan does harm him on defense and the glass. However, he’s an exceptional athlete with above-the-rim leaping ability and a quick first and second jump. On offense, he pairs that rim-running with very good passing out of the short roll and in dribble hand-off situations, and was a hub for Marquette’s offense. Defense is more of a mixed bag, as Ighodaro was frequently overpowered on that end, but moves well on the perimeter and in recover situations. His offensive game being tailor-made for the modern NBA and his plus athleticism make him a very worthy selection at 46.
Jonathan Mogbo – Mogbo played junior college for two years before transferring to Missouri and then San Francisco, for whom he had a breakout senior season. At 6’6, 216 pounds, Mogbo is incredibly undersized for a big man, but makes up for that with a large wingspan and standing reach. He’s also a solid offensive player who can finish strong at the rim, make plays in space (3.6 assists to 1.8 turnovers his senior season), and handle a bit. The question with Mogbo is whether he can protect the rim and guard bigger centers well enough, but his defense in switches and the open court is good. There are some real flaws but he’s an interesting prospect and I’d like a swing on him.
Prospects to Trade Up For
Adem Bona – Bona might be the draft prospect who Clippers
fans are most familiar with, as he has been the starting center the past two
years on UCLA. While Bona is “only” 6’10, he’s a hefty 235 pounds and covers a
lot of ground on defense. His motor and intensity are fantastic, helping him
win Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year last season. He projects as an energy
big man who should be relatively helpful on defense early on in his career but probably
won’t contribute a ton on offense outside of rim-running. Still, I think he’s a
fairly safe bet to be a solid backup center, albeit one with limited upside.
Prospects to Avoid
Isaac Jones – Jones is a big man from Washington State who
is a fifth-year senior. He played at the junior college level before transferring
to Idaho as a junior and then Washington State for his final season. Jones is
another undersized big man with fairly impressive scoring numbers, but whose
statistical outlook is really harmed by his age (he’s almost 24) and just-ok
rebounding and block stats. I don’t think he’d be an awful pick, but there
should be better guys on the board.
International Prospects of Note
Ariel Hukporti – Hukporti has been a name on the fringes of
the NBA Draft radar for years. A 22 year old from Germany, Hukporti has been
playing professionally since he was just 16 years old back in 2018, albeit at
very low minutes early on. Hukporti has played in the German Bundesliga, Australian
NBL, and Lithuanian LKL leagues, which are all fairly strong professional leagues,
though he has never played for a top-tier EuroLeague or EuroCup team. Hukporti’s
numbers are not particularly impressive, but he is a full 7’0, 250 big who does
traditional big man things like rebound and block shots and does have a lot of
professional experience against solid competition.
There are some pretty strong big man prospects in the
Clippers’ range in this draft. Are there any that you have your eye on more
than others?